Mindanao could face a potential repeat of a power crisis from over a decade ago, as the country’s grid operator anticipates that it will deplete its excess electricity capacity by 2028.
Cynthia Alabanza, assistant vice president at the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), attributed the bleak scenario to the lack of new power plant deployment.
‘By 2028, we will see that no excess capacity remains. For me, as a layperson, the writing is already on the wall,’ she said at the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum on Wednesday.
‘In Mindanao, we are seeing this, although I hope NGCP’s projection is wrong. It would be good for other government agencies to study this as well and validate NGCP’s data,’ Alabanza added.
According to the official, the region suffered an energy crisis back in 2012. The activation of additional coal facilities in the southern part of the region alleviated the situation.
However, no new power assets injected additional capacity into the grid.
‘So it is starting. We are already feeling demand catching up with supply,’ she said.
The major island, which provides power to the Visayas, has been under a few red alerts every year.
Since January of 2026, Mindanao has seen 17 yellow alerts and 4 red alerts, including some days this month due to the unavailability of large coal plants.
A yellow alert indicates that available power reserves are thinning, meaning any unexpected plant outage could trigger service interruptions. A red alert indicates that the supply cannot meet the demand, raising the risk of rotational brownouts unless we manage consumption effectively.
Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin said the power woes, particularly in the Visayas region, were ‘really frustrating.’
‘The supply is so tight so you cannot afford to punish everyone here and disallow them to operate. You’re stuck to these power plants because we didn’t construct in the last five years,’ she said.