Pax Silica cannot proceed as a mere executive agreement, a retired University of the Philippines (UP) agricultural scientist said, pointing to the need for Senate oversight, extensive research and public consultation.
Dr. Teodoro Mendoza, a retired professor of crop science at UP Los Baños, said these measures are essential to align the project with national resilience goals and ensure that, should it proceed, communities are protected and fiscal sustainability is guaranteed.
Without these safeguards, he said, ‘the Philippines risks undermining democratic governance and exacerbating vulnerabilities in water, energy, and food systems.’
‘With oversight, Pax Silica can be turned into an initiative that strengthens resilience, empowers cooperatives, and safeguards the nation’s outlook,’ Mendoza said in a research paper sent to the INQUIRER.
What’s at stake?
Pax Silica is a proposed high-tech manufacturing and innovation center within the Luzon Economic Corridor that seeks to make the Philippines a central mover in the world’s supply chains for semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) and critical minerals.
The Philippines became the coalition’s 13th member last April. Since then, the ‘economic security’ initiative has expanded to more than 30 participating countries.
But Mendoza said that while engagement provides the Philippines with potential industrial benefits, it ‘exposes the country to risks of water depletion, energy strain, fiscal burdens, and government bypass,’ concerns he said were more than enough reason for Senate intervention.
Last month, the Senate began proceedings on Pax Silica, with Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian saying that ‘it is important for the Senate to have oversight and ensure that we respond to the risks and concerns.’
Mendoza said that to determine whether the project can proceed, Pax Silica should be examined in the context of the Philippines’ ‘quadruple bind’ – currency depreciation, climate-related agricultural losses, rising debt-servicing costs and governance failures.
Direction
On concerns over water demand, Mendoza said a feasibility study mandated by the Senate would assess hydrological impacts, establish water-use caps and integrate climate projections into allocation planning.
He said proceeding without oversight risks replicating the ‘water wars’ seen in India’s semiconductor zones, where aquifer depletion triggered crop losses that eventually led to protests by agricultural workers.
‘Without oversight, industrial demand of 500,000 cubic meters (m³) a day creates a net deficit of -200,000 m³ a day, leading to aquifer depletion. With Senate oversight and limitations at 250,000 m³ a day, the net balance improves to +50,000 m³ a day,’ he said.
Senate oversight could also require the Department of Energy to conduct integrated resource planning to ensure that renewable offsets and grid modernization accompany industrial expansion, he said, considering the project’s 3-gigawatt energy demand.
Mendoza said that without extensive studies, the demand, already equivalent to almost 20% of Luzon’s peak load, could lead to brownouts and higher electricity costs while crowding out renewable integration.
‘Fiscal exposure is another critical dimension,’ he said.
Without oversight, hidden subsidies could reach P50 billion, while debt service could rise to P200 billion a year, worsening the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio amid currency depreciation and climate-related agricultural losses.
Mendoza said the Senate can mandate independent cost-benefit analyses, transparent subsidy allocation and fiscal protections, saying comparative benchmarks from North Carolina in the United States demonstrate the importance of legislative review in preventing fiscal overreach.
He said the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 70% without oversight, compared with 60% with Senate intervention.
Food insecurity
Pax Silica’s current lease covers 1,600 hectares, but the project would require a combined 20,390 to 20,780 hectares for solar farms and reservoirs, exceeding the available site by 18,790 to 19,180 hectares and potentially requiring the conversion of agricultural land in Tarlac, Pampanga and Nueva Ecija.
Mendoza, pointing to an earlier study, said the gap between the available property and the projected land requirement raises questions about whether Pax Silica’s proposed scale is compatible with the existing land base.
He said ‘diverting 20,390 to 20,780 hectares from agriculture would also have significant food security consequences,’ adding that ‘converting the land for energy and water infrastructure could increase dependence on imported staples and vulnerability to global price shocks.’
Mendoza said that without cooperative participation, the food security index could fall by 15%, but with cooperative integration mandated by the Senate, resilience could improve by 10%.
Bypassing these safeguards risks undermining democratic accountability, exacerbating resource vulnerabilities, and compromising long-term resilience,’ Mendoza said.