There will be ‘higher chances’ of above-normal rainfall from December 2025 to February 2026 due to a weak La Niña, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in an advisory on Friday.
‘Recent oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that La Niña has developed in the tropical Pacific. Since September 2025, the sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific started to decrease and further declined in November, reaching a weak La Niña threshold,’ Pagasa explained.
‘With this development, higher chances of above-normal rainfall in the December 2025 to February 2026 season are expected. Furthermore, an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine area of responsibility during the period is likely,’ it noted.
Pagasa said ‘weak La Niña’ conditions exist if sea surface temperatures fall by 0.5 degrees Celsius or less below the average in a month, and if sea surface temperatures are expected to still fall by 0.5 degrees Celsius or less below the average in the next three months.
‘It is likely that this La Niña will continue at least until the December 2025 to February 2026 season as suggested by several climate models,’ the state weather bureau said.
‘La Niña is usually associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and the early months of the following year,’ it added