The North-West and South-West could play decisive roles in determining the outcome of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, as the two geopolitical zones account for more than 43 per cent of registered voters nationwide.
An analysis of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) 2026 voter register, published by Vanguard, puts the combined number of registered voters in the two zones at 44,697,685 out of Nigeria’s total of 103,428,715.
The figures show that the North-West has the highest number of registered voters, with 25,083,411, while the South-West ranks second with 19,614,274. The North-Central follows with approximately 16.97 million registered voters.
The figures highlight the electoral importance of the two regions to President Bola Tinubu and opposition politicians seeking to unseat him in 2027.
Tinubu’s political influence in the South-West has played a major role in his rise to power, while his performance in the North-West contributed significantly to his victory in the 2023 presidential election.
According to INEC’s zonal figures for the last election, Tinubu secured 2,652,235 votes in the North-West and 2,542,979 in the South-West. His vote total in the North-West was higher than his tally in his home region.
However, the 2023 election showed that neither region is guaranteed territory for any presidential candidate.
In Lagos State, Tinubu lost to the Labour Party’s Peter Obi by 9,848 votes. Obi secured 582,454 votes against Tinubu’s 572,606, despite the president’s longstanding political influence in the state.
The results in other states also reflected the competitive nature of the election. In Kaduna, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar defeated Tinubu, polling 554,360 votes against the president’s 399,293.
In Kano, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party emerged ahead of the other major contenders, demonstrating the influence of regional political movements on voting patterns.
Tinubu eventually won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, ahead of Atiku, who received 6,984,520, and Obi, who polled 6,101,533.
Veteran journalist and political analyst Simon Kolawole previously observed that Tinubu’s electoral strength was concentrated in the South-West and the core North.
Kolawole argued that candidates seeking victory would also need substantial support in other regions, particularly the North-Central and South-South.
Beyond securing the highest number of votes, presidential candidates must also satisfy the constitutional requirements for winning an election.
Section 134 of the Nigerian Constitution requires a candidate to obtain the highest number of votes cast and at least one-quarter of the votes cast in no fewer than two-thirds of all states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory.
This means that strong performances in the North-West and South-West alone may not guarantee victory without sufficient support across other parts of the country.
Nigeria’s presidential elections since 1999 have demonstrated the importance of building broad political coalitions. The victories of former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari, among others, reflected the need to secure support beyond a candidate’s traditional political base.
The 2015 election, in particular, showed how an opposition alliance could defeat an incumbent president by bringing together voters and political interests from different regions.
For Atiku and Obi, the challenge ahead of 2027 will include consolidating their support bases and preventing opposition votes from being divided among competing candidates.
Tinubu, meanwhile, will be seeking to retain the coalition that delivered his victory while responding to concerns over the cost of living, economic hardship and insecurity.
These issues could influence voter decisions in both the North-West and South-West, as well as other regions, when Nigerians head to the polls.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman, Professor Joash O. Amupitan, SAN, has also declared that no algorithm will determine the outcome of the 2027 general election.
Amupitan said the power to choose Nigeria’s leaders rests with the electorate.
He made the remarks at the Artificial Intelligence and Democracy Forum 2026 in Abuja, held under the theme, ‘Safeguarding the 2027 General Elections in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.’
His position comes as political parties and stakeholders prepare for the next general election, with voter mobilisation, technology and electoral integrity expected.