Botswana’s economy shrank sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025, weighed down by a steep contraction in the mining sector, even as agriculture and several non-mining industries showed resilience.
Latest figures indicate that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 5.4 percent during the quarter under review, a deeper decline compared to the 1.9 percent contraction recorded in the same period in 2024. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economy declined even more sharply by 11.4 percent, underscoring mounting economic pressures.
The downturn was largely driven by significant declines in key sectors, particularly Mining and Quarrying, which plummeted by 47.0 percent. The sector’s collapse was primarily attributed to a 54.6 percent drop in diamond production, alongside declines in coal and soda ash output, which fell by 13.3 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively.
Other sectors also recorded contractions, with Construction shrinking by 2.3 percent, while Water and Electricity declined by 1.3 percent, reflecting reduced domestic electricity generation and imports.
Despite the overall economic downturn, agriculture emerged as a bright spot in the economy with the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector expanding by 4.2 percent which is a significant turnaround from the 1.9 percent contraction recorded a year earlier. Growth in the sector was largely driven by a 5.7 percent increase in livestock farming, supported by a dramatic 193.2 percent surge in cattle deliveries to the Botswana Meat Commission.
In terms of sectoral contribution to GDP, Public Administration and Defence remained the largest contributor at 18.2 percent, followed by Wholesale and Retail Trade at 13.2 percent, Construction at 12.1 percent, and Mining and Quarrying at 6.8 percent, reflecting the latter’s diminished role during the quarter.
The Wholesale and Retail Trade sector grew modestly by 4.1 percent, although this represented a slowdown from 7.8 percent growth in the previous year. Similarly, Accommodation and Food Services posted a slight improvement, growing by 3.8 percent, supported by gains in both accommodation and food services activities.
In the utilities sector, electricity output declined by 5.0 percent, reversing a strong 78.1 percent growth recorded a year earlier. This was largely due to reductions in both domestic electricity generation (down 11.6 percent) and imports (down 12.1 percent). In contrast, the water subsector grew by 5.8 percent, offering a partial offset.