Botswana has spent decades worrying about how to create enough jobs for its young population. The country may soon have a different problem – not enough young people.
The shift is easy to miss because it is happening slowly, one family at a time. But the numbers point to a potentially profound change.
According to Statistics Botswana 2024 Vital Statistics Report, Botswana’s total fertility rate (TF) has fallen to 1.96 children per woman, below the widely used replacement-level benchmark of 2.1.
Statistics Botswana says the figure means that, if current fertility patterns remain unchanged, ‘a woman would be expected to have approximately two children during her reproductive lifetime.’ The agency says the TFR being below 2.1 suggests fertility is ‘close to, or slightly below, replacement level fertility.’
The finding places Botswana firmly within a broader demographic transition in which families are having fewer children than previous generations. The report recorded 40,525 births among 696,153 women of reproductive age in 2024. Fertility was highest among women aged 20 to 24, with an age-specific fertility rate of 95 births per 1,000 women, followed by women aged 25 to 29 at 92 per 1,000 and those aged 30 to 34 at 82 per 1,000.
This mean Botswana has crossed a demographic threshold that wealthier countries spent decades confronting, where each generation is no longer, on average, replacing itself. The consequences will not arrive next year. They will emerge over decades.
For a country of just over two million people, the implications could extend far beyond family policy. They could affect the size of the labour force, the tax base, pension systems, healthcare, immigration and ultimately the growth model on which Botswana’s post-diamond economy depends.
Botswana’s demographic transformation has been remarkable. The country’s fertility rate was above six children per woman in the early post independence period. The 2022 Population and Housing Census recorded a national TFR of 2.90, already less than half the level recorded in 1981. But the national average concealed a much more advanced transition in urban Botswana.
The 2022 Census found fertility of only 1,96 among women living in towns, while the rate was 2.79 in urban villages and 3.93 in rural areas.
In South East District, fertility was already just 1.93, the lowest among the country’s districts. In contrast, North West recorded 3.73.
That geographical divide may offer a glimpse of Botswana’s future. The country is not experiencing one fertility transition. It is experiencing several at once. Urban educated women are already having substantially fewer children than women in rural communities.
The 2022 Census found a clear relationship between education and fertility. Women with primary education had a TFR of 4.28, compared with 2.16 among women with tertiary education.