Botswana has slipped in Africa’s industrialisation rankings, dropping six places over the past 14 years. This decline is linked to weaker manufacturing and a more specialised export base, according to a new African Development Bank (AfDB) report.
The Africa Industrial Investment Barometer (AfIIB) and African Industrialisation Index (AII) 2025 report shows Botswana’s position fell from ninth in Africa in 2010 to 15th in 2024, despite some recent improvements.
Botswana’s industrialisation score dropped from 0.6049 in 2010 to 0.5853 in 2024. Although there was a small improvement from 2023, the score is still much lower than in 2010.
The AfDB notes that Botswana is among the countries with the biggest drops in industrial competitiveness in Africa.
‘Libya, Lesotho, Cabo Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, Niger, Botswana, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Seychelles, Mali, and Madagascar experienced the biggest drop in the ranking, losing five ranks or more,’ the report states.
The AfDB says Botswana’s decline is mainly due to weaker industrial performance, not changes in supporting conditions.
‘Botswana, Lesotho, Libya, and Seychelles exhibit a similar pattern of decline, driven exclusively by underperformance in the performance dimension,’ the report notes.
Despite this slip, Botswana is working hard to move its economy beyond diamonds and into areas like manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. Through the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP), the government is changing trade rules, strengthening ties with neighbouring countries, and investing in big infrastructure projects to become a strong player in global industry.
Top officials, have said that Botswana should stop exporting raw materials. The country now focuses on processing agricultural products, adding value to minerals and diamonds, and growing advanced manufacturing.
As part of the ongoing efforts, President Duma Boko and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa have recently agreed to work more closely on trade, coordinate their industrial policies, and make the most of important minerals needed for electric vehicles and clean energy.
Meanwhile, on the report, it also says that while Botswana made progress in other areas, it has seen a ‘significant decline in productive capacity and performance in manufactured exports.’
These findings are a setback for Botswana, which has tried for years to move its economy beyond diamonds by focusing on industrialisation and manufacturing.
The report lists Botswana as one of Africa’s most specialised economies. South Africa is the most diversified, with a score of 0.555, while Botswana, Angola, and Zimbabwe have ‘very high levels of specialization’ above 0.85.
Since 2010, only Mauritius, Namibia, and Mozambique have managed to diversify their exports. Most African countries, including Botswana, have become more specialised.
These findings come as Africa overall is making progress in industrialisation. The African Industrialisation Index 2025 shows that 41 out of 54 countries improved their scores from 2010 to 2024, leading to a six percent rise in overall performance.
However, the report warns that Africa still faces big structural challenges. The continent makes up less than two percent of global manufacturing output and only 1.4 percent of global manufacturing exports. Manufacturing value-added per person is also lower than before 2014.
One key finding is that Morocco has passed South Africa to become Africa’s top industrial economy. This is due to export diversification, industrial upgrades, and steady policy implementation.
The AfIIB says Africa’s industrial future depends on stronger economic integration, better trade corridors, quality infrastructure, and common standards under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
AfDB Director for Industrial and Trade Development, Ousmane Fall, said the findings should be both a warning and a guide for policymakers.
‘This report is a roadmap as much as a diagnosis. It shows that 41 of our 54 countries are now moving in the right direction, but it also reminds us that industrialization at scale demands resilient infrastructure, value addition close to source, and finance mobilized on African terms,’ said Fall.
Dr. Harouna Kaboré, President of WITBA Invest, said Africa’s main challenge is not a lack of industrial strategies but the failure to implement them.
‘The continent’s real deficit is no longer the absence of industrial strategies. What is still lacking is execution discipline, continuity in public policy, and systemic coherence between financing, energy, infrastructure, human capital, governance, and industrial vision,’ he said.
When looking at the continent as a whole, Africa is poised for a significant transformation in both consumer markets and manufacturing. However, this transition will require time and concerted effort. The continent faces substantial challenges, such as inadequate infrastructure, fragmented markets, skills shortages, and inconsistent regulatory environments. Nevertheless, the potential benefits are considerable, and the outcomes of either success or failure will have far-reaching implications.
By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.5 billion, with half of the population under the age of 25. This demographic trend positions Africa as one of the largest emerging consumer markets globally, characterised by increasing demand for modern goods, services, and economic opportunities.
Despite significant potential, Africa continues to rely heavily on imports of finished products. Although the continent is abundant in raw materials essential to global industries, including cocoa, coffee, cobalt, and other critical minerals, much of the value is realized outside Africa through processing and manufacturing. Currently, Africa contributes only 2% to global manufacturing output, which exposes many economies to external trade disruptions, currency fluctuations, and ongoing trade imbalances.
Establishing a robust manufacturing sector is not only an economic necessity but also a means to achieve long-term resilience and inclusive growth. Industrialisation generates employment, reinforces domestic value chains, and increases public revenues for investment in healthcare, education, and essential services. It contributes to higher living standards, poverty reduction, and the development of more balanced and self-sustaining economies. Furthermore, industrialisation supports community stability, promotes technological advancement, and provides young people with the skills required to succeed in a rapidly changing global economy.
The rationale for advancing industrialisation in Africa is increasingly compelling. The continent has the necessary resources, skilled workforce, and demographic advantages to emerge as a major manufacturing center. The primary challenge lies in converting this potential into sustained economic transformation.