The cattle industry is facing a worrying squeeze, with the national cattle herd shrinking by more than 100,000 animals over a decade while cattle deaths have surged, according to the newly released 2025 Agricultural Census by Statistics Botswana.
The census, conducted by Statistics Botswana in collaboration with the Ministry of Lands and Agriculture, shows that Botswana had 1,638,543 cattle in 2025, down from 1,744,166 recorded in 2015. That represents a 6.1 percent decline in the national cattle herd over ten years – a contraction of 105,623 cattle. The figures raise fresh questions about the resilience of Botswana’s livestock sector at a time when Government has identified agriculture as one of the priority sectors under the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP).
The census is intended to provide the baseline for monitoring the implementation of BETP and to support government planning and policy decisions.
But the latest cattle figures paint a troubling picture. While cattle numbers have fallen, the census shows that cattle deaths increased by 30.7 percent compared with the 2015 census. At the same time, cattle births declined by 14.3 percent. The combination of fewer births and substantially higher deaths has put pressure on the country’s cattle population, even as the census records an improvement in the calculated cattle birth rate.
The cattle birth rate rose from 56.7 percent in 2015 to 68.5 percent in 2025, an increase of 11.8 percentage points. However, the cattle death rate also climbed, rising from 6.3 percent to 8.7 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points.
Statistics Botswana says the natural growth rate, the difference between the birth and death rates stood at 59.8 percent in 2025, compared with 50.4 percent in 2015. Despite the apparent improvement in the natural growth rate, the overall cattle population declined between the two census periods.
The census characterises the annual natural growth rate as 0.9 percent, describing it as slow growth. A growth rate of less than one percent annually, the report notes, means a population is failing to reach replacement level, making it difficult to sustain growth without external support.
The deterioration in cattle numbers contrasts sharply with developments in Botswana’s smallstock sector. The goat population increased from 1,205,238 in 2015 to 1,271,407 in 2025, representing a 5.5 percent increase. Sheep recorded an even stronger increase, rising from 242,432 to 323,279, a 33.3 percent jump.
Goat deaths increased by 27.7 percent, while sheep deaths surged by 65.8 percent between the two census periods. Sheep births, however, increased by 35.7 percent, while goat births rose by 5.2 percent.The natural growth rate among smallstock was significantly stronger than that of cattle.
For goats, the natural growth rate rose from 26.7 percent in 2015 to 61.3 percent in 2025. For sheep, it increased from 24.6 percent to 60.9 percent. The census says the increase in natural growth rates among smallstock is more pronounced than that of cattle.
The cattle decline presents a significant challenge to Botswana’s ambitions to transform agriculture into a stronger contributor to the economy. The BETP identifies agriculture as a key priority sector, meaning the census findings provide an important reality check on the condition of one of the country’s traditional livestock industries. The figures suggest that increasing agricultural output cannot simply depend on policy ambition. The underlying livestock population must also be protected and expanded. The decline of more than 105,000 cattle over ten years, combined with a 30.7 percent increase in cattle deaths, points to structural pressures that policymakers will have to confront. The census does not, in the figures cited, attribute the cattle decline to a single cause.