Botswana is heading toward a future defined by worsening water shortages, rising competition for scarce supplies and mounting pressure on its economy unless urgent investments are made to strengthen water security, a new report warns.
The latest Econsult Botswana Review says the country, already among the world’s most water-scarce nations, will become increasingly vulnerable to climate change over the next 25 years, with higher temperatures, more frequent droughts and declining inflows into dams threatening livelihoods and economic growth.
‘As a semi-arid and water-scarce country, Botswana is one of the countries most exposed to the impact of climate change, notably heat, drought, water stress, and climate variability,’ the report says. The report warns that by 2050, climate models project ‘increased rainfall variability, the delayed onset of the rainy season, a shorter crop growing season, rising average temperatures, increased drought frequency, reduced water inflows to dams and reduced rangeland productivity.’
Those changes, it says, will undermine water security while intensifying competition among households, agriculture and mining which are three sectors that already place heavy demands on Botswana’s limited water resources. The report identifies ‘greater water demand’ and growing ‘competition among cities, mining and agriculture’ as one of the country’s most significant climate risks.
Econsult argues that safeguarding water supplies must become Botswana’s foremost adaptation priority. ‘Several assessments identify water as Botswana’s highest adaptation priority,’ the report says, urging greater investment in reservoirs, groundwater development, wastewater recycling, leak reduction and more efficient water use.
With nearly two-thirds of Botswana’s population living in urban areas, cities including Greater Gaborone, Francistown, Maun, Kanye, Molepolole and Palapye are expected to face hotter summers, rising electricity demand for cooling, worsening water shortages and more frequent flash flooding after intense rainfall events.
The report recommends urban greening, stronger water conservation standards for buildings, improved drainage systems and better protection of water infrastructure to help cities withstand climate shocks. Climate pressures also threaten Botswana’s tourism industry, with ecosystems such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park and the Kalahari Desert facing increasing environmental stress.
While Botswana has already adopted a National Adaptation Plan Framework and other climate strategies, the report says the real test lies in implementation. ‘Botswana already has a National Adaptation Plan Framework and related climate strategies, but implementation and financing will be the main challenge through 2050,’ it says.
The report states that despite Botswana’s relatively strong governance, the country’s dependence on water, rain-fed livestock production and nature-based tourism leaves it highly exposed to climate shocks, making investment in water infrastructure and conservation critical to protecting future economic growth.