Botswana’s population is on course to approach 3 million by 2038, with a rapidly expanding working-age population and accelerating urbanisation set to reshape the country’s economy while putting pressure on jobs, housing and infrastructure.
The population is projected to rise from 2.40 million people in 2023 to 2.95 million by 2038, an increase of about 558,000 people, according to the latest population projections from Statistics Botswana. The medium-variant scenario, which the report identifies as the country’s primary planning baseline, puts average annual population growth at 1.4% over the period.
The demographic expansion comes with a potentially valuable economic shift. The proportion of Botswana’s population aged 15 to 64 is projected to rise from 63.26% in 2023 to 67.59% in 2038. But the report makes clear that a larger workforce will not automatically translate into stronger economic growth.
‘This expansion enhances Botswana’s potential to harness the demographic dividend, provided that adequate investments are made in employment creation, skills development and productivity,’ the report says. That creates a high-stakes policy challenge for a country seeking to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on traditional sources of growth.
Statistics Botswana says the expanding working-age population creates an opportunity to increase productivity and economic competitiveness, but warns that without strategic investment, the larger labour force could face unemployment and underemployment. ‘Without strategic investment, the expanding labour force could face unemployment and underemployment, undermining economic gains,’ the report says.
The projections point to a country becoming significantly more urban over the next 12 years. The share of people living in urban areas is expected to increase from 70.4% in 2023 to 76% by 2038, with growth concentrated around Gaborone and fast-expanding centres including Mogoditshane, Kweneng, Kgatleng, Tlokweng, Palapye, Mahalapye, Serowe, Tonota, Tutume and Francistown.
That shift is likely to intensify demand for housing, transport, water, sanitation and other public services. The report says the 5.6-percentage-point increase in urbanisation will require ‘substantial investments’ in housing, transport infrastructure, water and sanitation, waste management, environmental protection, schools and health facilities.
The population growth will also be unevenly distributed.
Mogoditshane is projected to record the largest absolute increase, adding 57,762 people between 2023 and 2038. Gaborone is expected to add 44,393, while North West and Okavango are projected to gain 40,741 and 34,279 people respectively.
Okavango is projected to be the fastest-growing district, expanding by about 44% over the period. North West and Boteti are each projected to grow by about 33%, while Tonota, Tutume, Letlhakeng, Mabutsane, Goodhope and Mogoditshane are expected to record increases of between 28% and 32%.
The growth is reinforcing what the report calls Botswana’s ‘eastern and northern growth corridor’, stretching from Gaborone through Mogoditshane, Kweneng, Kgatleng, Mahalapye, Palapye, Serowe, Tonota, Tutume and Francistown. These areas are expected to absorb much of the country’s internal migration and natural population increase.
At the same time, Botswana is beginning to age. The share of people aged 65 and above is projected to increase from 5.48% in 2023 to 6.61% in 2038, while the median age is expected to rise from 26 to 29 years. The report says the shift will have implications for healthcare, pensions, social protection and long-term care.
Fertility is also expected to continue falling, with the total fertility rate declining from 2.86 births per woman in 2023 to 2.20 by 2038. Annual births are projected to fall from 55,850 to 49,415 over the same period, an 11.5% decline.
The report calls for job creation, stronger technical and tertiary education, greater emphasis on STEM, green technologies and digital skills, as well as policies supporting entrepreneurship and small businesses. ‘These shifts present both opportunities and challenges that require coordinated, evidence-based policy responses,’ Statistics Botswana says.
The agency cautions that the figures should be treated as planning tools rather than exact predictions and updated regularly as new data become available.