Botswana’s newly secured duty-free access to the United States offers a competitive advantage over India’s diamond exports, which now face a 10% U.S. tariff, but a top economist says the shift is unlikely to dramatically alter the global diamond trade.
While the tariff differential could encourage some high-value diamond processing to move to Botswana, the country’s higher production costs and structural bottlenecks mean India is expected to retain its dominant position in the global cutting and polishing industry.
‘It’s helpful but not a game changer,’ said Dr. Keith Jefferis, managing director of Econsult Botswana.
‘The main problem is that India is so much more efficient (lower cost) in diamond cutting and polishing that the 10% tariff cost advantage in Botswana vs India is offset by much higher costs in general in Botswana compared to India. So, for most diamonds India is still more competitive, even with the 10% US tariff.’
The comments come as Botswana stands to benefit from preferential access to the U.S. market after Washington maintained a 10% tariff on Indian diamond imports while granting Botswana duty-free treatment, potentially giving the world’s leading rough diamond producer a pricing advantage in one of the industry’s most important consumer markets.
Jefferis said the biggest opportunity lies in larger, higher-value stones where labour costs play a smaller role in determining competitiveness. ‘The exception is for larger diamonds (3 or 5ct+) that can be cut cost effectively in Botswana, and it is possible that more of these will be cut in BW and less in India,’ he said.
Even if demand for Botswana-polished diamonds rises, Jefferis warned that local manufacturers may struggle to expand production because of domestic policy constraints.
‘However, the local industry still faces constraints in expanding. First firms cannot get the work permits they need to bring in trainers and highly skilled polishers, and second there is a punitive Training Levy that is imposed on a firm’s turnover and therefore penalises high value low margin businesses such as diamond cutting and polishing.’
He said Botswana’s levy places local firms at a disadvantage against rival polishing centres. ‘In competing jurisdictions, the TL is imposed on a firm’s wage bill not turnover, and does not impose this penalty.’ The tariff advantage also does little to address the industry’s biggest long-term challenge which is the rapid rise of lab-grown diamonds, which continue to undercut natural stones on price.
Dr. Jefferis also says the newly secured duty-free access to the United States ‘does little to change the relative price points of Botswana natural diamonds vs synthetic diamonds, as the latter has a price advantage of 70-80%’.
The assessment suggests Botswana’s improved access to the U.S. market could provide a welcome boost for selected segments of its downstream diamond industry, particularly larger stones. But without reforms to lower business costs and ease skills shortages, the country is unlikely to significantly erode India’s commanding share of the global cutting and polishing market despite the new tariff landscape.