Sunday Standard open source investigation has revealed that when Botswana goes to the 2029 general election, the country’s youth electorate will be the largest in history, and the fate of Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) government may hinge on whether young people can find work.
During the election campaign, the UDC pledged to create 100, 000 jobs within its first 12 months in office and between 450,000 and 500,000 jobs within five years. So far, the first year target has not been achieved, putting pressure on the government to meet the five-year goals before voters go to the polls in 43 months.
By 2029, between 91, 000 and 139, 000 youth voters could be unemployed, depending on whether the UDC government delivers its job creation promises. That represents 21-32 percent of the youth electorate, a group that could decisively swing the election.
According to preliminary results from the Statistics Botswana 2024/25 Multi Topic Household Survey, unemployment among youth aged 15-35 is already 28.9 percent, with young women hardest hit at 30.7 percent. National unemployment stands at 21 percent. The survey revealed that unemployment among people aged 15 and above has increased from 17.6 percent in 2015/16 to 21 percent in 2024/25.
While the increase appears modest, the numbers reveal a structural shift in Botswana’s labour market. Over the past decade, Botswana’s population grew 14.2 percent ro 2.37 million. The labour force grew 21.7 percent and employment increased 16.7 percent. This means jobs are being created, but not fast enough to keep up with the number of people entering the labour market.
If current trends continue and the UDC fails to meet its job creation targets, youth unemployment could rise to 32 percent. About 139, 000 youth voters could be unemployed, representing 32 percent of the youth electorate. National unemployment could climb to 22-23 percent. This scenario would create a large economically frustrated youth voting bloc that could swing the election against government. This would mirror the conditions that contributed to the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) losing in 2024.
In 2024, youth aged 18-35 made up about 32 percent of registered voters and projections indicate that by 2029 they are expected to make up roughly 35-38 percent of registered voters. Many of them will be first-time voters entering the electorate for the first time.
In raw numbers, in 2024 about 370,000 youth voters were registered. By 2029, roughly 420, 000 – 450,000 new young voters could enter the electorate. This means the youth vote alone could be enough to swing the election.
If the definition of youth is extended to 18-39, they made up around 45 percent of registered voters in 2024 and the figure is expected to go up to 48 percent by 2029. So if you include up to 39, roughly half the electorate will be youth.
If the government successfully creates the promised 450,000 to 500,000 jobs by 2029, youth unemployment could fall to around 21 percent. About 91,000 youth voters could still be unemployed, representing 21 percent of the youth electorate. Total employment however, could rise to 1.25-1.30 million, dramatically reducing national unemployment. Although an estimated 91,000 youth voters would still be unemployed, the UDC would go to the 2029 election having delivered the largest job creation expansion in modern Botswana history.