After delivering a policy statement in parliament early this week, the Bhumjaithai-led (BJT) coalition is now in full gear. With both populism and nationalism at play in the Thai-Cambodian conflict, the party finds its popularity surging like never before.
BJT leader Anutin Charnvirakul has pledged to honour the memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the People’s Party (PP) that requires it to play an interim role, which means it has four months to run the country, in addition to a charter-rewriting commitment and maintaining the minority government status.
However, political pundits have already started discussing the possibility that the party could lead the next election with Mr Anutin forming another government and even completing a regular four-year term.
In fact, the BJT has every reason to aim high, having swept more than 120 MPs into its camp ahead of the next election, almost double its tally from the previous poll.
Such a scenario could play out, should the party enjoy massive success in the Northeast, the traditional stronghold of the embattled Pheu Thai Party, and the South, formerly the Democrats’ base. Besides, the BJT is busily rebranding itself to cater to new supporters, securing more places for its list-MPs.
The next election is set to take place amid a changed political landscape. The previous poll saw a struggle between the old and new guard as the ex-junta clique experienced its sunset moment.
Pheu Thai entered a deal with the conservatives to secure a chance for its former leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, to return home after nearly two decades of exile. Thaksin was to lead a political game against the then-Move Forward Party, which has effectively since been rebranded as the PP. But his attempts flopped.
So the “Thaksin factor” has now gone, and the ideological warfare between the left and right-minded camps is notable despite the various parties showing more flexibility in making decisions, as evidenced in the case of Pheu Thai and the old guard, as well as the PP aligning with the BJT to propel the latter to the top administrative position.
More importantly, it’s clear the public is paying scant attention to ideology, but is extremely obsessed with the Thai-Cambodian conflict and the need to solve economic difficulties.
This is the best time, the golden moment, for the BJT. Should it make the right decision on the two aforementioned issues, it’s not too hard for the party to amass political gains in the next election, expected around March or April next year.
In fact, now that the party is in power, and given its close affiliation with major institutions, the BJT already has an advantage over its political rivals. That said, Pheu Thai, the former ruling party, is aware of its fate.
The BJT’s rising popularity is attested in survey polls by Nida on Sept 19 and 24. The biggest group of respondents, 27.28%, remains undecided about who they should support as a suitable prime minister for the time being. About 22.8% chose PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, followed by Mr Anutin (20.44%), Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party (7.16%), and Chaikasem Nitisiri of Pheu Thai (6.76%).
It should be noted that the PP still enjoys top rank in the survey polls, but its popularity has been dented significantly, from 46% in the previous polls to 33%. More than 21% of respondents said they have still not made a decision. While the BJT came fourth in the poll, with 13.24%, slightly lower than Pheu Thai, which gained 13.96%, such a narrow gap between the two parties — arch-rivals sharing the same political base — is unprecedented.
And while the BJT has never performed that well in previous opinion surveys, it came third in the 2024 election, given its extensive network and political resources.
Meanwhile, the outcome of the by-election in Si Sa Ket province confirms the rise in the BJT’s strength. Support for Pheu Thai, the incumbent, remains undiminished, as it gained some 30,000 votes. However, the BJT performed much better, sweeping over 40,000 votes — an increase of almost 10,000 votes from the previous election.
One additional seat from the Si Sa Ket by-election may not make much difference in terms of government stability, but the BJT’s victory has shaken Pheu Thai’s confidence.
Pheu Thai MPs in the northeastern region who are thinking about leaving the party will be able to make a decision more easily, either to join the BJT or the Klatham Party under Thamanat Prompow’s command.
Evidently, all major parties, such as the United Thai Nation (UTN) and Palang Pracharat (PPRP), are experiencing losses as several factions under their umbrella are approaching, or even joining, the BJT. For instance, Suchart Chomklin, who led his Group of 16 out of the PPRP, was appointed as a deputy prime minister as well as minister of natural resources and the environment. Several other factions, including those led by Ekanat Promphan, as well as Santi Prompat, are following suit.
Several factions approaching the BJT enjoy the so-called ban yai status, referring to politicians with extensive networks, influence and resources. This gives the BJT the chance to grow even larger in the near future.
The BJT has adopted a set of populist policies, such as the co-payment plus scheme, as well as cheaper train fares, among others, as part of its “Big Quick Win” formula, citing the need for economic stimuli. Such policies could easily translate into more support when voters cast their ballots in a few months’ time. Moreover, the party’s idea of holding a referendum for the cancellation of two MoUs with Cambodia is seen as a tactic for political gain through ultranationalism as well.
It’s very likely the BJT will polish its image, presenting itself as a high-quality party, not just a ban yai party with influential networks. It will have to take this opportunity to introduce a myriad of flagship policies, particularly a strong economic development package, for the next election in order to secure a bigger victory, thus fulfilling its political ambitions.
Meanwhile, Mr Anutin must maintain a balance and not overuse taxpayers’ money on unjustifiable populism. Rather, he must present himself as a politician with a sense of professionalism. Besides, he has to avoid interfering in the investigative process regarding the notorious Khao Kradong land seizure case and alleged fraud during the Senate election. If not, any missteps could become a deathtrap for him and his party.