Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), the brokerage arm of Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP), expects the combined loan portfolio of Thailand’s three virtual banks to reach 200 billion baht in 5-6 years.
Given the Bank of Thailand’s requirement that each virtual bank increase its registered capital to 10 billion baht during the second phase of operations, from at least 5 billion baht on the day the business commences, bringing the combined registered capital to 30 billion baht, KKPS expects the three lenders to expand their total loan portfolio to around 200 billion baht within 5-6 years.
However, the profitability of virtual banks will depend largely on their business models, particularly their sources of income. Based on a study of 45 virtual banks worldwide, the brokerage found the average break-even period ranges from 1-9 years, said Sarachada Sornsong, an equity analyst at KKPS.
Globally, virtual banks typically begin by offering deposit products before expanding to other financial services, including lending, insurance and investment products. While lending is the primary driver of profitability, virtual banks generally require more time to build their loan portfolios and generate sustainable earnings.
During the first three years of operation, virtual banks in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, have generally focused on growing deposits rather than expanding lending.
KKPS said it will continue to monitor the lending strategies of the three Thai virtual banks, which are expected to focus on providing loans to unserved and underserved customers in line with central bank objectives. The brokerage expects the banks to begin with unsecured lending before gradually expanding into secured loans.
According to KKPS, the Thai banking industry had a total outstanding loan portfolio of 22.6 trillion baht as of February 2026. Commercial banks accounted for 66.6% of the total, while specialised financial institutions (SFIs) represented the remaining 33.4%.
The industry’s consumer finance portfolio, comprising credit cards, nanofinance, vehicle title loans, unsecured personal loans and digital personal loans, totalled 1.43 trillion baht. Unsecured and digital personal loans accounted for the largest share, representing 34% of the portfolio.
As of February 2026, total outstanding deposits in Thailand’s banking sector totalled 24.7 trillion baht. Commercial banks accounted for 71.7% of total deposits, while SFIs held 28.3%, according to KKPS.
“For the initial stage, we expect the lending services of local virtual banks to help narrow the gap between formal and informal lending. Informal lending currently accounts for around 16% of Thai GDP,” Ms Sarachada said.
Although virtual banks are expected to improve financial inclusion, KKPS said the success of the new banking model will depend largely on effective risk management, particularly debt collection. The firm believes the ability to manage credit quality and collect overdue debt will be among the biggest challenges facing virtual banks.
Thailand’s strong digital readiness is expected to support the expansion of virtual banking services. Ms Sarachada said the country has 92.2 million PromptPay registrations, while mobile banking and e-money penetration have reached 229% and 181%, respectively, based on the number of accounts, providing a solid foundation for virtual banks’ growth.
In June 2025, the central bank announced the three successful applicants to establish the country’s first batch of virtual banks. The winners were ACM Holding Co (TrueMoney), backed by the Charoen Pokphand Group; Krungthai Bank (KTB), in collaboration with Advanced Info Service Plc (AIS) and PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (OR); and the SCB X consortium, which includes South Korea’s KakaoBank and WeBank.
The regulator originally required operations to commence in June this year, but later agreed to extend the deadline for banks to start operations by one year, until June 2027.
Clicx Bank Plc, a virtual bank jointly established by KTB, AIS and OR, is the first virtual bank applicant to obtain a licence to operate, and began operations in mid-June.