The Ministry of Commerce estimates that exports will grow by 9.4-10.4% this year, driven by clearer US tariffs, global economic recovery and rising demand for digital technology products, agricultural products and food.
Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Ministry of Commerce’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said exports expanded by 19% year-on-year to US$30.9 billion in September, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth and the highest rate of growth since April 2023.
Imports tallied $29.6 billion, a 17.2% year-on-year growth during the same period.
In the first nine months of this year, exports grew by 13.9% to $254.1 billion and imports rose by 11.9% to $254.5 billion.
Despite a decline of 8.1% in agricultural and agro-industrial products in September, certain sectors saw growth. These included processed chicken; vegetable and animal oil and fat; wheat products and prepared foods; sugar; and chilled and frozen shrimp.
In the first nine months, exports in this sector grew by 0.6%.
He added that exports of industrial products jumped by 26% in September.
Key products showing growth included computers, peripherals and parts; automotives, accessories and parts; gems and jewellery, excluding gold; phones and peripherals; machinery and parts; and electrical transformers and parts.
Industrial product exports grew by 18.6% in the first nine months.
Exports are expected to grow in the final quarter, driven by clarity on US tariffs, which have reduced market concerns. Thailand remains competitive with the 19% reciprocal tariff, Mr Nantapong said.
Moreover, the global economy is recovering, as reflected in increased production capacity, while the growth of the digital technology industry has driven exports in this sector.
There is also demand for processed agricultural products and food.
He added that monthly export averages are expected to reach between $25-26 billion for the rest of this year.
“Exports are projected to grow by 9.4-10.4% this year, surpassing the earlier target of 2-3%,” he said.
The value of this year’s total exports is projected to reach about $329.1-332.1 billion, which would mark a fresh record high.
However, he pointed out several risk factors that need to be monitored. These include trade retaliatory measures between the US and China, the effects of the possibility of a prolonged US government shutdown, the appreciation of the baht and developments regarding the Thailand-Cambodia border situation following the recent signing of a peace agreement.