Gold’s bullish momentum is expected to continue for at least two more years, according to local trader YLG Group, citing ongoing central bank purchases, persistent inflation concerns, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, and trade tensions.
Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG, said the most significant factor in the near term is the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Historical data shows in the past three Fed rate-cut cycles, gold prices surged by an average of 32% over two consecutive years. However, in the current cycle gold has already soared by 64%, yet the bullish trend still has room to run, she said.
If these supportive factors persist, YLG forecasts gold prices could reach US$4,435-4,900 an ounce. Domestic prices are estimated at 68,500-75,700 baht per baht-weight, assuming an exchange rate of 32.58 baht per dollar.
With strong fundamentals and favourable monetary conditions, YLG believes the current bull run could extend well beyond expectations, potentially marking one of the most significant gold rallies in modern history, said Ms Pawan.
Jitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Gold Traders Association, shared a similar view, saying bullion is on course to hit $4,500 an ounce, converting to a domestic price of 70,000 baht per baht-weight.
Spot gold is projected to hit $5,000 an ounce next year, said Mr Jitti, though it fell by 1.5% to slip below $4,300 an ounce by mid-afternoon on Tuesday, after hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 on Monday. The dollar index rose by 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders.
Veeravat Virochpoka, head of research at FSS International Investment Advisory Securities, said gold traders and investors have a “cautious approach”, but bullion certainly remains on an upward trend in his view.
“Given the global economic situation and US-China stances on trade negotiations, the level of uncertainty remains high, spurring demand for safe-haven assets such as gold,” he said.
The monetary policy easing cycle also supports gold prices, said Mr Veeravat. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.
Earlier in the month, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now assign a 96.8% probability the Fed will cut rates again later this month, and an 81.1% chance of another reduction of 50 basis points in December. Markets are pricing in three additional cuts in 2026.
YLG reported gold performed consistently well during previous easing cycles. Bullion soared by 31% in the 2000 cycle, 39% in the 2007 era, and was up 26% in the 2019 cycle. This translates to an average gain of 32% within two years after the Fed’s first rate cut.
Since 1999, the Fed has entered four major easing cycles. The first cycle was in 2000 when the dot-com bubble burst, triggering a downturn in technology investment and weakening the US labour market. The second cycle was in 2007 when the subprime mortgage crisis caused the US housing market to collapse, prompting the Fed to start cutting rates in September that year.
The third cycle was in 2019 amid slowing economic activity, when the Fed executed an “insurance cut” before slashing rates aggressively during the pandemic in early 2020. The fourth cycle started in 2024 and is continuing, after the Fed began policy normalisation as the US economy recovered strongly.
In the current cycle, the Fed’s policy rate is 4.25%, and gold has already climbed by 64% from its previous low — nearly double the historical average.