Thailand is expected to welcome 200,000 Chinese tourists during the Chinese eight-day Golden Week holiday, a 24% year-on-year decrease, with revenue projected to drop 17% to 9.1 billion baht despite growth in outbound travel from mainland China.
Outbound bookings for the holiday this year surged 28% year-on-year, while international seat capacity rose by 10% to both short- and long-haul destinations, according to ForwardKeys, an air traffic data company.
The growth in travel demand was attributed to visa-free entry to many countries and depreciation of the yen.
The most popular destinations remained in Japan, with Osaka and Tokyo reporting increases of 66% and 24%, respectively.
Many large cities in Southeast Asia reported upticks for the Golden Week holiday period, led by Ho Chi Minh City with a 71% increase, followed by Kuala Lumpur and Hanoi at 66%, Denpasar at 61%, and Singapore at 18%. No Thai city made the top 10.
Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said Chinese people began entering Thailand for the holiday on Sept 26 and will continue to take trips until Oct 8, taking advantage of the country’s visa exemption scheme for convenient family travel.
However, the number of Chinese arrivals is expected to decline by 24% from 262,001 in 2024, with revenue down 17% from 10.9 billion baht as confidence in safety remains a roadblock, she said.
Other countries offer better value, particularly Japan, where the average cost of travel has fallen by 15% due to the weak yen, while some routes in Singapore and Malaysia have prices that are 6% cheaper year-on-year.
South Korea recently launched visa-free privileges for groups of three people entering via tour companies registered with the South Korean government.
Due to the longer Golden Week holiday period this year, which runs from Oct 1-8, a number of Chinese had opted to venture to Europe, resulting in 110% growth in Chinese tour groups to France, Switzerland and Spain.
South Africa, which offers an e-visa for Chinese tourists, also recorded 30% growth during this period.
Ms Thapanee said Chinese tourists are expected to stay for 6-8 nights on average in Thailand and spend 6,600 baht a day.
Seat bookings during the holiday still rose by 5%, most of which came from Beijing (20%), Guangzhou (18%) and Chengdu (10%), while the second-tier cities that generated the most tourists for Thailand included Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Xiamen and Chongqing.
Ms Thapanee said there would be at least 30 chartered flights touching down in Thailand during the week, mostly from the second-tier cities where the Thai government has already launched its subsidy campaign.