The Klatham Party has caused a stir by going against the opposition whip’s position and voting in support of the 2027 budget bill.
Unsure of its commitment to scrutinising the government, the main opposition People’s Party (PP) has removed Klatham from the opposition whip.
The whip is a mechanism for coordinating opposition parties in scrutinising the government. The move opens the way for the opposition camp to restructure ahead of the planned no-confidence debate.
Klatham is widely seen as the party positioning itself for a place in the Bhumjaithai-led (BJT) government. The question now is whether it will actually be invited to join the coalition and, if so, under what conditions.
A useful option
The Klatham Party’s move cannot be viewed separately from the way the BJT is managing the coalition, with Newin Chidchob keeping an eye on the party’s direction and timing from behind the scenes.
The ruling party appears to be playing two roles. On one side, Prime Minister and BJT leader Anutin Charnvirakul has left the door open, saying that “anything is possible”. On the other, the party’s spokesman says the coalition remains unchanged.
Keeping Klatham in the running to join the government therefore gives the BJT more room to negotiate with its current partners, particularly Pheu Thai. It also sends a message that if disagreements emerge, Klatham could be brought in instead.
However, if the coalition remains stable, there is little reason for the BJT to make changes. Bringing Klatham into the government would not be a simple decision, given the party’s growing political strength.
Klatham won 58 seats in the latest election, giving it considerable bargaining power and making the government more cautious about bringing it into the coalition.
A partner to watch
Its leader, Capt Thamanat Prompow, is widely regarded as a politician who knows how to build political strength. After spending just over a year in government with control of the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, he helped turn Klatham from a little-known party into a major political force.
With 58 MPs, Klatham is no longer a small party that can be brought into the government and easily managed.
It could expect around four or five ministerial positions when joining the government. That would require cabinet seats to be taken from current coalition partners, potentially causing a stir.
The political experience and parliamentary skills of key party figures have made the government wary that bringing a party with 58 MPs into the coalition could create another centre of power within the government and lead to conflicts in the future.
Capt Thamanat’s political record also adds to the concern. He has shown an ability to create political pressure, expand his influence and shift political alliances when circumstances change.
That may explain reports that Capt Thamanat could stay behind the scenes rather than take a cabinet position himself, in an effort to reduce resistance from the public and political business groups.
Even with such an arrangement, the timing of any move will depend on whether the government sees a need for Klatham’s support.
An immediate move is unlikely because the current allocation of cabinet seats and the government’s support in parliament remain settled.
The situation could be different towards the end of the government’s term. Bringing Klatham into the coalition at that stage could help strengthen the government’s parliamentary position, potentially taking its support above 300 seats ahead of the next election.
In that scenario, Klatham would serve more as an additional source of support than as a replacement for a major coalition partner such as Pheu Thai.
Showing goodwill
For Klatham, remaining outside the government also has advantages.
By supporting the budget bill, the party has demonstrated its parliamentary discipline, keeping its MPs together in attendance and voting and showing that it can deliver a bloc of votes for the government when needed.
There have also been reports that Klatham representatives have been in contact with the BJT to say the party is ready to join the government without conditions, although it is expected to seek the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry quota.
But as long as the current coalition remains intact and concerns about Klatham’s past political moves persist, the party is likely to remain a backup option that gives the government additional bargaining power.
The most likely scenario for now is that Klatham will continue to support the government on key votes to build goodwill, while remaining outside the cabinet.
A real opportunity could emerge if a major political crisis develops or divisions become serious enough for the main coalition parties to stop working together. In that situation, Klatham and its 58 MPs could become an important factor in maintaining the government’s stability.
A test
The coming no-confidence debate could be more important than the budget vote in determining where Klatham stands.
Assoc Prof Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, director of the PhD programme in Politics and Development Strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration, said Klatham’s support for the budget bill is linked to the planned censure debate.
With 58 MPs, Klatham could significantly increase the number of votes against the government if it remains in the opposition, putting greater pressure on the administration to secure enough support to survive the debate.
Mr Phichai said an agreement could be reached for Klatham to support the government, but the party would likely seek a guarantee in return.
Its main demand would be a clear commitment on cabinet positions, particularly if it fears supporting the administration only to be left outside the government afterwards.
For that reason, he said, Klatham could push to join the coalition before the no-confidence debate. If the government is unwilling to bring the party in, Klatham could interpret this as a sign that the administration is not serious about offering it a place in government and could still vote against it.
The situation could become more complicated if the BJT is uncertain whether Pheu Thai will support the government.
Mr Phichai said bringing Klatham into the coalition beforehand could provide an additional bloc of votes and reduce the government’s reliance on Pheu Thai. But doing so would require a cabinet reshuffle.
The key issue would be which party gives up ministerial positions, with the quotas likely to come from either the BJT or Pheu Thai. Taking back positions from existing coalition partners could create internal tensions, he said.
If Klatham becomes convinced that it will not be invited into the government after the no-confidence debate, it could instead turn to Pheu Thai and vote against the government, potentially leading to the end of the current administration and the formation of a new coalition.
A new government could potentially be led by a Pheu Thai prime minister, which would reduce the BJT’s role to that of a coalition partner, he said.
Mr Phichai also warned Klatham’s bargaining power could change once the no-confidence debate is over. If the party supports the government first and waits to see whether it receives cabinet positions afterwards, it could lose much of its leverage.
Once the government survives the debate, there would also be less reason for it to bring Klatham into the administration, he said.