Asset management companies (AMCs) expect roughly 50% of special mention (SM) loans to continue to deteriorate into non-performing loans (NPLs) over the next three years.
SM loans — defined as debt overdue for more than 60 days but not exceeding 90 days — amount to 1.25 trillion baht in the entire banking system. Of this amount, 849 billion baht comes from business loans, while the remaining 402 billion originates from the household sector, according to Rak Vorrakitpokatorn, chief executive of Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM), the country’s largest AMC.
“If the Bank of Thailand’s debt relief measures expire, around 50% of SM loans could turn into NPLs,” he said.
“As a result, a substantial volume of bad debt may be transferred to AMCs over the next three years.”
Thailand has 86 AMCs managing a combined total of about 1 trillion baht in NPLs.
Commercial banks hold around 520 billion baht in NPLs, while specialised financial institutions account for 330 billion baht.
Suthirak Traichira-Aporn, chief executive of JMT Network Services, a debt collection and management company, said he projects around 10% of SM loans to reach NPL status next year.
“If debt assistance measures are withdrawn, the migration rate could exceed 10% and potentially reach 50%,” he said.
JMT specialises in consumer and unsecured loans, which account for 92% of the NPLs under its management. The remaining 8% consists of secured loans, mainly mortgage-related.
According to JMT, SM loans in the consumer segment have risen steadily, from 383 billion baht in the first quarter of 2024 to 416 billion in the fourth quarter.
However, in 2025 SMs have declined slightly, dropping from 414 billion baht in the first quarter to 403 billion in the second quarter, noted the company.
With the continued rise in consumer NPLs, JMT allocated 2 billion baht in fresh capital for bad debt acquisitions next year.
The company expects auto loan NPL sales to increase, reflecting the growing fragility of that business segment.
In addition, Mr Suthirak revealed JMT is in discussions with several major local banks about establishing new joint venture AMCs (JV-AMCs).
However, he said the company is awaiting the central bank’s revised regulations on JV-AMC conditions before making any commitments.
JMT operates JK AMC, a joint venture with Kasikornbank (KBank), which manages individual bad debts from KBank’s portfolio.
In the second quarter of 2025, JK AMC reported increased cash collections to 865 million baht, up from 835 million the previous quarter, according to JMT’s financial statement filed with the Stock Exchange of Thailand.