A decade ago, Myanmar reached what many viewed as a historic milestone on Oct 15, 2015. The signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) between the government and several ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) brought renewed hope. After more than seven decades of internal conflict, the country seemed to be stepping towards a peaceful and inclusive future.
The NCA was more than a ceasefire. It embodied a shared political vision — building trust, reducing armed conflict, and preparing for inclusive political dialogue. It was witnessed by international observers, including the United Nations and neighbouring countries, and welcomed as a significant step in Myanmar’s modern history.
Ten years later, that optimism has been severely tested. Following political developments since February 2021, Myanmar’s situation has deteriorated. Widespread resistance, renewed fighting, and the collapse of political dialogue have placed serious pressure on the NCA’s foundations. Several original signatories have withdrawn recognition or declared the agreement void, citing violations by military authorities.
The Karen National Union, one of the NCA’s leading signatories, declared in 2023 that the military had undermined the agreement’s core, especially Chapter 1, which commits all parties to political dialogue and federal democracy.
In October, the KNU, All Burma Students’ Democratic Front, and the Chin National Front jointly announced that the NCA had lost its legitimacy in the current political environment. They urged the international community to reject any peace process lacking meaningful political reform. Taking a more moderate stance, the Restoration Council of Shan State called for renewed trust-building between the military and EAOs, grounded in federalism and supported by international witnesses. These varied responses reflect deepening mistrust and a lack of confidence in the peace process.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military continues to treat the NCA as a valid legal framework. During the 10th anniversary ceremony held in Nay Pyi Taw on Oct 15, military leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the agreement. However, ongoing hostilities and the absence of inclusive dialogue paint a different picture on the ground.
The anniversary event — attended by representatives from several countries, including Thailand — served both as a commemoration and a reminder of unfulfilled promises. While the ceremony emphasised peace and federal unity, conditions across the country highlight a widening gap between official narratives and lived realities.
Although general elections are being planned, the military has acknowledged that voting will not take place in many areas due to continued conflict and limited administrative control. This raises concerns about the legitimacy of the process and the exclusion of key ethnic voices.
While elections are a vital component of democracy, they cannot substitute for inclusive political dialogue. Without trust, broad representation, and a shared national vision, elections alone cannot heal deep-rooted grievances. The elections must instead be viewed as “part and parcel” of a wider peace process — one that prioritises dialogue, reconciliation, and mutual respect.
Thailand, as Myanmar’s immediate neighbour and long-standing friend, has a deep interest in the country’s peace and stability. With over 2,000 kilometres of shared border and close people-to-people ties, Thailand’s stake in Myanmar’s future is both diplomatic and humanitarian. Refugee flows, cross-border trade, and regional security are all affected by the situation in Myanmar.
Thailand has consistently supported peace efforts in Myanmar, including through informal dialogue, humanitarian assistance, and its role within Asean. At the NCA’s 10th anniversary, Thailand’s message was clear: peace cannot be achieved by procedure alone. It requires trust-building, inclusion, and the active participation of various stakeholders.
The key lesson from the past decade is this: peace is not a document or a ceremony. It is a long, fragile process that must be continuously nurtured. The NCA was, and still can be, a foundation for lasting peace, but only if adapted to today’s realities and revitalised through genuine political will.
Myanmar’s future must be determined by its people, supported by neighbours and international partners who respect its sovereignty while encouraging its democratic aspirations. As the country approaches another crossroads, the spirit of 2015 can still be renewed not by looking back, but by creating a new, inclusive path together forward.
Hope may waver, but it does not have to fade. The experiences of the past decade — both achievements and disappointments — should guide Myanmar on its continued journey towards sustainable peace and reconciliation.