The Bangkok condo market is expected to rebound in 2027, as sluggish conditions are likely to persist through next year and the expected general election, according to property consultancy Cushman and Wakefield Thailand.
Surachet Kongcheep, head of research at the consultancy, said condo developers will likely remain cautious heading into 2026, hoping a new government will restore economic confidence and revive homebuying sentiment.
“The condo market recovery will have to wait until 2027, as a general election in mid-2026 will keep market conditions largely unchanged from this year,” he said. “The economy will remain sluggish.”
The market slowed over the first nine months of this year, with new launches totalling 13,504 units, flat year-on-year. Total new supply is expected to reach 17,000 units by year-end, similar to last year, noted the firm.
Mr Surachet said developers are focusing on clearing unsold inventory, particularly completed projects ready for transfer. Tens of thousands of these unsold units remain in the market nationwide, with a combined value exceeding 100 billion baht.
“The greatest challenge for developers is buyers’ inability to secure mortgages,” he said. “Banks now assess not only individual applicants, but also their employers’ financial performance and even the repayment records of colleagues who are also bank customers.”
The condo market can no longer rely solely on domestic demand, as Thailand’s population is shrinking, noted Mr Surachet.
From 2026, Thais born before 1971 — the first year the country’s birth rate began to decline — will start entering retirement and are unlikely to purchase new homes.
“Developers are increasingly targeting foreign buyers, partnering or forming joint ventures with overseas agencies to tap markets such as China, hoping demand from Chinese buyers will rebound next year,” he said.
Sentiment among Chinese buyers has improved, as previous misconceptions about safety in Thailand have eased considerably, said Mr Surachet.
“Although some Chinese buyers shifted their focus to other countries this year, Thailand consistently ranks among their top choices, and is often No.1 when it comes to purchasing residential properties,” he said. “The main issue has been financial as China’s property market has yet to recover, but the situation is gradually improving.”
According to Cushman and Wakefield Thailand, new condo launches in Bangkok in the third quarter this year tallied 6,618 units, with average prices rising to 131,419 baht a square metre from 89,500 baht in the previous quarter.
Most of the new units were located along skytrain routes, while many developers opted for soft launches, releasing a limited number of floors for presale to gauge buyer interest before proceeding with official project launches.
“New condo projects this year are no longer focused on selling out during the launch period or achieving 60% sales within the first year,” said Mr Surachet. “Developers are shifting to long-term strategies that reflect more subdued market conditions.”