Nationwide residential transfers are expected to grow by only 1-2% this year despite double-digit growth in the second quarter, as buyers accelerated transfers ahead of the original June expiry of cuts to property fees.
Mana Nimitvanich, director-general of Real Estate Information Center (REIC), said the double-digit year-on-year growth in residential transfers in the second quarter of 2026 should not be interpreted as a sustained recovery.
“Residential transfers in the second half of the year are likely to slow as some demand was pulled forward into the second quarter ahead of the original expiry of the measures on June 30,” he said.
The measures, which cut transfer and mortgage fees from 2% and 1% respectively to 0.01% for housing units valued at 7 million baht or less, were extended on June 29, 2026 for one year.
Data from REIC showed nationwide residential transfers in the first quarter increased by 11.2% year-on-year to 72,583 units, with transfer value rising 3.1% to 187 billion baht.
Growth accelerated in the second quarter, surging 23% year-on-year to 95,082 units, while total value rose 15.6% to 243 billion baht.
For the first half, transfers grew 17.6% year-on-year to 167,665 units, with total value rising 9.8% to 430 billion baht.
For the full year, REIC projects total nationwide transfers to reach 323,479 units worth 881 billion baht, a 1.8% uptick in volume year-on-year and 2.3% in value.
This estimate implies a slower second half, representing declines of 11% year-on-year in units and 4% in value.
Mr Mana said the number of residential transfers in 2027 is expected to decline by 0.9% to 320,617 units, following the expiry of the fee reductions on June 30, 2027.
However, transfer value is forecast to increase by 3.1% to 908 billion baht, driven by expected increases in residential prices.
“The increase in residential prices next year is expected to be driven by two main factors. The first is rising construction and development costs, fuelled by higher transport costs and inflation,” he said.
The second factor is the new property appraisal values for 2027-2030, which take effect on Jan 1, 2027 and are projected to rise.
New housing loans nationwide in the first half of 2026 and the second quarter followed the same direction as residential transfers, growing by 12.2% and 18.4% year-on-year, respectively.
REIC forecasts new mortgages nationwide will grow by 1.4% to 571 billion baht in 2026 from 564 billion last year, before rising by another 2% to 583 billion in 2027.