Has the Asean chair upped the ante on the bloc’s strategy regarding Palestine?
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was blunt at the recent Doha Emergency Summit on Palestine regarding Israel’s airstrikes on Qatar. The Asean chair called the bombing “lawless, barbaric and indefensible”, decrying the attack on Doha and the peace-mediating efforts.
His words had a deeper meaning because Israel has openly declared time and time again that there will never be a Palestinian state. In fact, no other Asean leader has made such a statement. Could his call serve as a precursor for his Asean colleagues to reconsider the bloc’s position towards the Middle East situation?
Since 2004, in its annual joint communique, Asean has been supporting the two-state solution for Palestine. At the latest Asean ministerial meeting in July, Asean reaffirmed its longstanding support for the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, including their rights to self-determination and to their homeland.
“We urged all parties concerned to redouble efforts towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict, with the aim of realising the two-state solution in accordance with international law and the relevant UNSC and United Nations General Assembly resolutions,” the communique stated.
On Sept 12, all Asean members were among the 142 UN members voting for the resolution endorsing the New York Declaration, which outlines time-bound and irreversible steps toward a two-state solution. It also condemns Hamas for its Oct 7, 2023, attack on civilians, demands the release of all hostages, and rejects territorial or demographic changes imposed by force.
For nearly eight decades, since the 1947 UN partition plan, this idea has been on the table but has never been implemented. Reasons were aplenty, including unpredictability on the ground and changing power dynamics, coupled with recent major geopolitical shifts. Today, the two-state solution has been rejuvenated due to the ongoing worsening conflict in Gaza.
With more than 65,000 Palestinians killed and millions displaced, international sympathy for the Palestinians has surged. The latest Israeli blockade of flotillas bringing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians has also been largely condemned. Asean citizens, including Malaysians and Indonesians, also joined these humanitarian efforts. At the last count, 160 out of 193 UN members recognised Palestine as a state.
However, some Asean members face dilemmas with the current situation in the Gaza conflict. Both Thailand and the Philippines sit at the heart of Asean’s Catch-22. Both are US treaty allies, and they depend heavily on Israel for their labour markets and security matters.
Today, 46,000 Thais are working on Israeli farms and construction sites. Another 30,000 Filipinos work there as caregivers and domestic staff. When the Gaza conflict began, 46 Thai workers were killed and 31 taken hostage.
Although it was a national tragedy, which was widely covered by the Thai media, it has not deterred Thai workers from seeking employment in Israel. In fact, the numbers increased compared to the level before the Oct 7 attack two years ago. Apparently, economic factors and lack of better-paid jobs at home have defeated fear and insecurity. Manila is no different, as Filipino caregivers continue to seek jobs in Israel, fully aware of the risks.
In future, issues related to the bloc’s position and economic security could pose major challenges. During their first summit in 2023, Asean and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement calling for the safety of Asean citizens in Gaza, with Thailand pushing this message at the summit. Like it or not, Asean workers are now part of the ongoing conflict. It is time to rethink the bloc’s strategy towards the Middle East.
Given the current situation, it remains to be seen how the Asean chair will manage the Palestine issue. Timor Leste, which will join Asean as the 11th member on the morning of Oct 26 in Kuala Lumpur, will increase the bloc’s membership to 10. Dilli has also expressed strong solidarity with the Palestinian cause, citing similarities in its own history of struggle.
At present, Singapore has not yet recognised a Palestinian state, although it has always supported a negotiated two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
According to Channel News Asia, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said in parliament on Sept 22 that Singapore will reconsider its position on recognising a Palestinian state if the situation continues to deteriorate, or if Israel takes further steps to extinguish a two-state solution. “We will recognise the State of Palestine when it has an effective government that accepts Israel’s right to exist and categorically denounces terrorism,” added Mr Balakrishnan.
Further strengthening the bloc’s cooperation with the GCC is pivotal at this critical juncture. Asean wishes to see a stable and peaceful Middle East region, which is reducing reliance on the West. The 676-million Asean Community is potentially a powerful economic and security partnership for the GCC. After their first summit, both sides have further utilised their cooperative framework and action plans in energy transition, investment flows, digital economic development, tourism promotion and halal industry.
Furthermore, they also increase cooperation in political-security matters such as counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and maritime security.
In the future, apart from Turkey, Asean ties with the broader Middle East countries, including Jordan and Egypt, among others, must also be part of its strategy for external relations. Asean must further augment its bargaining power with more friends from this region.