The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) could plunge by 50-75 points or 3-5% in the short term amid the spread of risk-off sentiment across Asia, but declines in most global markets have so far remained contained, suggesting caution rather than systemic panic, analysts say.
Based on historical data, during prolonged but non-escalated situations such as the Israel-Hamas war in 1966, a decline of 50-75 points (3-5%) is expected, said InnovestX Securities.
The crucial factors to watch closely in the next 72 hours are whether the operation in the Strait of Hormuz will result in a prolonged blockade.
Besides, investors need to monitor the level of intervention by China and Russia, which could determine the direction of the conflict, the brokerage said in a research note.
Piriyapon Kongvanich, head of equity research at Bualuang Securities (BLS), striking a cautiously constructive tone, said the conflict could ultimately prove short-lived following the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and signals from the country’s new leadership indicating a willingness to halt long-range weapons development and reopen negotiations.
Markets may be nearing stabilisation after initial panic-driven moves in oil and gold. The brokerage pointed to the pullback in crude prices from intra-day highs as a sign that worst-case fears have yet to materialise, he said.
If tensions ease, it sees scope for a broader rebound led by energy and petrochemical shares, Mr Piriyapon added.
Watan Jitsomnuk, director of strategy analysis at Pi Securities, said it seems that US President Donald Trump does not want the Middle Eastern war to be prolonged, given the sharp rise in oil prices.
“If the oil price increases a lot, every economy would be affected, including the US. That won’t be good for the Republicans’ race in the US mid-term election slated for October- November this year,” he said.
As volatility has intensified, other brokerages offered mixed assessments. Krungsri Securities (KSS) expects the Middle East conflict to be prolonged even if it has passed an initial peak, keeping crude prices elevated and sustaining sector rotation into energy and defensive stocks.
At the same time, defensive sectors, including telecommunications, hospitals and large-cap retail, are expected to attract selective inflows due to stable earnings visibility during periods of geopolitical stress.
If funds rotate away from Middle Eastern markets, Thailand could be perceived as a relative safe haven within emerging Asia, given its diversified economic structure and resilient domestic demand base.
Still, risks remain uneven across industries. Power producers with limited fuel cost pass-through mechanisms face margin pressure from higher gas prices.
Airlines are vulnerable to rising jet fuel costs and potential airspace restrictions, particularly on European routes. Tourism-related counters may also experience short-term volatility if geopolitical uncertainty weighs on travel sentiment.
The conflict could ultimately prove short-lived following the death of Khamenei and signals from the country’s new leadership indicating a willingness to halt long-range weapons development and reopen talks, KSS noted.
In contrast, Yuanta Securities’ research has warned that unresolved hostilities, particularly if Iran disrupted shipping routes or the conflict expanded regionally, could trigger renewed capital outflows from Thai equities.
The firm cautioned that while oil prices in the US$90-100 per barrel range may initially boost energy earnings, levels beyond that threshold could erode aggregate corporate profits as rising production costs offset sector gains.
As global investors recalibrate risk exposure, Thailand’s energy-heavy market structure may offer partial insulation in the short term, but much will depend on whether diplomatic channels reopen or the conflict deepens into a broader regional confrontation, it added.