The All Progressives Congress (APC) leads the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the race for the Kwara State governorship and all three senatorial seats ahead of the 2027 general elections according to a new opinion poll by NU Northstar Research.
The survey conducted across the state’s 16 local government areas and 193 wards projects a commanding lead for the APC governorship candidate Salihu Yakubu Danladi over his PDP counterpart Bolakale Kawu.
Among voters who have indicated a voting preference Danladi enjoys 63 per cent support against Kawu’s 34 per cent suggesting a substantial advantage for the APC candidate as the political contest gathers momentum.
The findings signed by NU Northstar’s Head of Research Mr Ebuka Iloh were based on interviews with 30000 registered voters conducted between September 2 and October 20 2026.
The poll also places APC candidates ahead of their PDP rivals in Kwara Central Kwara South and Kwara North pointing to the ruling party’s growing electoral advantage across the state.
Among the entire electorate surveyed Danladi secured 43 per cent support compared with Kawu’s 24 per cent. However 31 per cent remained undecided or declined to disclose their preferred candidate. Zakari Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) garnered one per cent while Ridwan Apaokagi of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) recorded less than one per cent.
A breakdown of the governorship race showed Danladi leading in all three senatorial districts and the 16 local government areas.
His strongest performance was recorded in Kwara North where he secured 71 per cent against Kawu’s 26 per cent among decided voters. In Kwara Central the APC candidate polled 56 per cent while his PDP rival managed 41 per cent.
The contest appeared relatively tighter in Ilorin West Kawu’s home local government where Danladi led by 51 per cent to 46 per cent.
Despite the APC candidate’s statewide advantage the research identified 58 wards as too close to call while Danladi maintained clear leads in 135 wards.
The findings however suggest that the final shape of the governorship contest could depend significantly on how undecided voters eventually align.
Kwara South has the highest concentration of voters yet to decide with 43 per cent undecided. The figures stood at 28 per cent in Kwara Central and 24 per cent in Kwara North.
Significantly all six local government areas where undecided voters exceeded 40 per cent were located in Kwara South making the district a potentially decisive battleground in the election.
Young voters between 18 and 29 years also emerged as a critical electoral bloc with 37 per cent still undecided.
The senatorial contests mirrored the governorship trend with APC candidates enjoying considerable leads over their PDP opponents in the three districts.
In Kwara Central APC candidate and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq led the PDP candidate and incumbent senator Saliu Mustapha by 62 per cent to 33 per cent among decided voters.
In Kwara South Olalekan Adewoye of the APC polled 60 per cent against 36 per cent for the PDP candidate Saheed Popoola.
Similarly Mahmud Umar Muhammad of the APC maintained a 65 per cent to 31 per cent advantage over Kolo Baba Jiya of the PDP in Kwara North.
The closest senatorial contests were recorded in Ilorin West where the APC candidate led 59 per cent to 36 per cent; Irepodun with a 58 per cent to 39 per cent margin; and Edu where the figures stood at 58 per cent and 38 per cent.
Kwara South again recorded the highest proportion of undecided voters in the senatorial contests with 36 per cent still undecided. The corresponding figures were 25 per cent in Kwara Central and 19 per cent in Kwara North.
Beyond individual candidates the poll suggested a strong possibility of party-line voting in the state.
About 64 per cent of respondents said they intended to vote for candidates of the same political party in both the governorship and senatorial elections. Only 15 per cent indicated that they might split their votes while 21 per cent remained uncertain.
The findings also offered insights into how voters assess the AbdulRazaq administration with 59 per cent rating the governor’s performance as good or very good. Only 17 per cent described his performance as poor or very poor.
On the issues likely to shape voting decisions bad roads emerged as the most frequently identified problem across the state cited by 25 per cent of respondents.
However voters’ priorities varied across the senatorial districts. Electricity featured prominently in Kwara Central road infrastructure dominated concerns in Kwara South while insecurity remained a major issue in Kwara North.
According to the research team the survey combined telephone interviews street-level interviews and online questionnaires to capture voting intentions perceptions of government performance and the concerns of communities across the state.
NU Northstar Research an African research and strategy consultancy specialising in opinion polling surveys data analysis and tracking public conversations said the exercise covered 30000 registered voters across the state’s 193 wards.
While the poll presents the APC as the clear frontrunner in the governorship and senatorial contests the substantial number of undecided voters particularly in Kwara South suggests that the electoral battle is far from settled.
For the opposition PDP the figures point to the need for a stronger mobilisation strategy particularly in areas where its candidates are trailing but where a sizeable pool of undecided voters could still alter the political equation.
For the APC the challenge will be to convert its projected advantage into actual votes sustain its appeal across the three senatorial districts and prevent localised grievances from eroding its support ahead of the 2027 elections.