Socio-political and economic reformers in countries that practice liberal democracy usually find it difficult to win the next election and that explains why most democratically elected leaders shy away from engaging in fundamental reforms. Even in semi-democratic countries leaders who engage in fundamental reforms usually suffer the backlash associated with seeking to change the trajectory that the masses are used to. And the reason for such repercussion is because such reforms are usually painful and exhausting and voters lack the patience associated with fundamental reforms.
One of the most popular reformist leaders in the 20th century who paid the price with his position as president was Coalition of defunct Soviet Union. He introduced openness and freedom of speech in a Soviet Union that was hitherto led by autocrats. The consequence was the disintegration of the USSR and the birth of Russian Federation. President Boris Yelstin who took over from him and shepherded Russia towards a representative democracy capitalist economy and greater freedoms for citizens became very unpopular towards the end of his presidency.
Nearer home Nicephore Soglo of Benin Republic who steered the country away from the Marxist-Leninist dictatorship in the early 1990s towards a market-drive economy lost the 1996 presidential election to the former dictator Mathieu Kerekou. In Ghana President John Mahama who championed infrastructural development and fiscal reforms under an IMF program lost the next presidential election to Nana Akufo-Addo in the 2016 general election. Further off Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua who led a revolution to overthrow the 46-year brutal dictatorship of the Samoza family in 1979 and introduced major reforms lost the presidential election in 1990.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had dared where other elected presidents were afraid. On his inauguration day in 2023 he announced that fuel subsidy was gone and like a coast buffeted by a whirlwind the national economy has not been the same again. He followed up with a single market-driven foreign exchange platform and the value of the naira plummeted while inflation chased the wind. For lower income earners life became nasty brutish and short and at that stage in 2023 to 2024 his popularity rating as president may be one of the worst in Nigeria’s history.
Before Tinubu’s emergence in the 2023 general election President Muhammadu Tinubu had in the face of severe economic challenges resorted to what economists refer to as ‘Ways and Means’ to survive. In 2022 President Buhari wrote to the National Assembly for a retroactive approval and securitization (converting short-term overdrafts into long term bonds) of about N22.7 trillion accumulated Ways and Means advances. Even though the Ways and Means had over-shot the 5% of the previous year’s actual federal government revenue allowed by Section 38(2) of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act; the Senate approved the restructuring and securitization of the N22.7 trillion loan into a 40-year bond with a 3-year moratorium at a 9% interest rate.
Meanwhile the total approved federal budget of Nigeria for 2022 fiscal year was N17.12 trillion. Of course while the National Assembly could give a cloak of legitimacy to the economic abracadabra that President Buhari and his economic team were using to sustain Nigeria on a life support the underlining structural challenges meant that very drastic measures were needed if Nigeria was not to become an economically failed state. Again with the foreign reserve completely depleted it was a matter of time before the international economic hegemons (IMF and World Bank) made statements that will alert the international community to be wary of doing business with Nigeria.
So President Tinubu apparently haven been briefed before his swearing-in ceremony decided to take drastic economic measures that amounted to near-political suicide instead of working for his popularity and a second term in view. Speaking outside his prepared speech as his team would never have agreed to such a drastic measure Tinubu announced that petroleum subsidy was gone on May 29 2023. His political opponents and many political commentators claimed that he acted without thinking or caring for the ordinary Nigerians who will bear the brunt of the removal of subsidy.
Beyond measure the economic backlash was ruthless and devastating for the private pockets of Nigerians particularly the middle and low income earners. It was like a surgery without anaesthesia. According to the National Bureau of Statistics by December 2023 food inflation was 33.93% as against 22.32% in January when Buhari’s regime was rounding up its four years of economic mismanagement. By January 2024 food inflation jumped to 35.41% and ended at 39.84% in December 2024. At that stage Nigerians began to compare President Tinubu to the biblical King Rehoboam who told his people ‘My father made your yoke heavy but I will add to your yoke…’
But like a lifesaving surgery as the pain began to give away the patient increasingly realized that though not up and running he has more energy than before the surgery when he was anaemic. The food inflation in 2025 in Nigeria plummeted to 26.08% and further down to 10.84% in December 2025 on a year-to-year basis. The NBS reports that Nigeria’s year-on-year food inflation dropped further down to 8.89% in January 2026. By July with the war between USA/Israel versus Iran exacerbating and the cost of fuel and diesel surging higher the food inflation has begun a new resurgence.
For the three tiers of government the outcome of the surgery has been different. According to NBS the three tiers of government shared N1.127 trillion in December 2023. By December 2024 the total amount shared by the three tiers of government rose to N1.424 trillion. The amount shared by the federal state and local governments further increased to N1.969 trillion in December 2025. The shared sum in October 2026 between the three tiers of government rose to N2.426 trillion as against N906.955 billion in October 2023 just after the surgery and N736.782 billion in October 2022 before the surgery.
With the surgery yielding more than three-fold harvest for the three tiers of government there is every reason for the governors to rally round President Tinubu to save the reforms that yielded such a bounty harvest. Of note while every governor’s rating has gone up because of their performance with the threefold increase in the monies from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) President Tinubu is the butt of complaints by Nigerians. So while Nigerians are praising their performing governors they see Tinubu the surgeon that made it possible as the source of the economic hardship they face.
Luckily for President Tinubu former vice president Atiku Abubakar and former governor Peter Obi the two major contenders for the presidency in the 2027 general election have promised to remove the fuel subsidy as a campaign promise. The governorship candidates especially those seeking re-election or first term must have realized that President Tinubu has been carrying the can for all of them. It remains to be seen whether this wake-up call will save a reformist Tinubu government in the 2027 general election.