As Kaduna State moves deeper into the 2027 electoral cycle, the governorship contest is increasingly being defined by realignments, competing opposition platforms, regional calculations, incumbency and the records of the major contenders.
The election is gradually assuming the character of a contest in which established political structures, personal networks and emerging alliances will collide. At the centre is Governor Uba Sani of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who secured his party’s ticket unopposed after receiving 459,393 affirmation votes during the May 2026 primary.
Sani is being challenged by Isa Mohammed Ashiru of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Shehu Usman Bawa of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former Senator Danjuma La’ah, who has been associated with the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), although the NDC’s Kaduna governorship ticket remained disputed as of August 2026.
The incumbent’s uncontested nomination gives the APC an early organisational advantage, but the opposition’s ability to consolidate its various political constituencies remains one of the major questions ahead of the election.
Ashiru and adc: experience against organisational questions
Isa Ashiru enters the contest with extensive electoral experience. He contested the Kaduna governorship election for the PDP in 2019 and 2023, giving him statewide campaign experience and an established network across the 23 local government areas.
His performance in the 2023 election also demonstrated his capacity to mobilise a substantial bloc of voters. His movement to the ADC consequently gave the party a candidate with statewide name recognition and previous experience of a governorship contest.
The ADC’s attraction extends beyond Ashiru himself. The party became a destination for politicians leaving both the APC and PDP, particularly following the movement of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and some of his associates away from the ruling party. The resulting coalition brought together former government officials, opposition politicians, technocrats and grassroots actors with different political histories.
For Ashiru, this created an opportunity to combine his existing electoral network with the structures of politicians who previously operated under other platforms. The challenge, however, is converting such a coalition of personalities into a disciplined and unified political organisation.
The ADC governorship primary exposed some of those tensions. Ashiru won with 86,113 votes, while former El-Rufai commissioner Jafaru Sani came second with 29,580 votes. The result was followed by disagreements within the former governor’s political network, with some associates questioning the outcome and the direction of the party.
Several prominent former El-Rufai associates, including former Chief of Staff Bashir Saidu, former commissioner and senator Abdu Kwari, former commissioner Jafaru Sani and other grassroots politicians, subsequently left the ADC and returned to the APC in support of Uba Sani.
The returning politicians have offered their own explanation for the rupture. Some said they felt disappointed by El-Rufai’s political direction, particularly his decision to support Ashiru for the ADC governorship ticket rather than their preferred candidate, Jafaru Sani.
The development has therefore created an important test for the ADC, particularly over how much of the political network associated with El-Rufai remains with the party following the primary.
Bawa and pdp: a party fighting to hold its ground
Shehu Usman Bawa, popularly known as Shehu ABG, carries the PDP banner at a time when the party is attempting to regain political ground in Kaduna.
His personal political experience and grassroots contacts remain important assets, particularly in areas where the PDP has historically maintained a strong support base. His emergence as the party’s candidate provides a recognisable figure around whom its remaining structures can rally.
His principal challenge is organisational. The PDP has lost several prominent politicians to rival platforms, including Ashiru and Senator Sunday Marshall Katung, as well as other influential figures.
Katung’s departure is particularly significant because he represented Kaduna South in the Senate on the PDP platform before defecting to the APC. His movement was followed by that of other Southern Kaduna politicians and lawmakers, altering the political landscape in an area historically associated with opposition politics.
For Bawa, therefore, the task extends beyond campaigning for votes. He has already begun efforts to bring PDP candidates and former aspirants together, calling for unity within the party ahead of the election.
La’ah and the ndc: personal
profile against party structure
Former Senator Danjuma La’ah introduces another dimension to the opposition contest. A two-term senator who represented Kaduna South in the National Assembly, La’ah possesses legislative experience and a political identity rooted particularly in Southern Kaduna.
The region has historically played an important role in opposition politics, making his profile relevant to the wider contest. His challenge, however, is the organisational capacity of the NDC.
Unlike the APC and PDP, which have long-established structures across Kaduna, and the ADC, which has recently attracted prominent political actors, the NDC is still building its political identity in the state.
There is also an important qualification concerning the NDC ticket itself. Although La’ah had been presented by a faction of the Kaduna chapter as its governorship candidate, the party’s state chairman said in August that neither La’ah nor Mohammed Sani Abbas had been formally recognised as the candidate and that the issue remained unresolved at both state and national levels. The party said a substitution primary would be required.
The dispute means that La’ah’s political profile must currently be considered separately from the question of whether he will ultimately carry the NDC ticket into the general election.
Uba Sani/apc: incumbency, party cohesion and broadening coalition
The opposition landscape helps explain the position of Uba Sani as the incumbent. He enters the contest having already settled the most important internal question facing his party. He was the sole aspirant at the APC primary and secured 459,393 affirmation votes, allowing the party to move directly from nomination into general-election preparations.
His administration has also attracted politicians from different political backgrounds. Senator Sunday Marshall Katung’s movement from the PDP to the APC, followed by the return of former El-Rufai associates from the ADC, has broadened the ruling party’s political coalition.
Sani has also sought to build his political identity around reconciliation and inclusion. The current pattern of defections and political returns has made that political approach a significant part of the emerging electoral equation.
The broader question is whether the coalition can remain sufficiently coordinated as the election approaches.
Southern Kaduna: A changing political
terrain
Southern Kaduna could remain one of the most closely watched areas of the election. The zone has historically been regarded as a stronghold of opposition parties, particularly the PDP, but recent developments have made its political behaviour more fluid.
One of the most significant developments was the defection of Senator Sunday Marshall Katung, the incumbent senator representing Kaduna South, from the PDP to the APC. Katung said his decision followed extensive consultations with constituents, stakeholders, family members and political associates. He also linked the move to calls from sections of his constituency urging him to align with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani.
Katung’s movement was accompanied by that of other Southern Kaduna politicians and lawmakers. He subsequently secured the APC’s nomination to seek another Senate term. He also received PDP defectors into the APC in Kagarko, with the defectors citing federal and state development interventions among their reasons for leaving the PDP.
The movement is significant because Katung was elected on the PDP platform and had been one of the prominent opposition figures in Southern Kaduna. It demonstrates that the zone cannot simply be treated as an automatic bloc for any particular party.
Local political interests, candidate identity, development interventions, federal-state relations and party structures are increasingly interacting to determine political alignments in the zone.
El-Rufai’s legacy and new
realignment
Perhaps no development has altered the opposition landscape more than the political movement of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and the subsequent reaction among some of his former associates.
The former governor’s entry into the ADC initially appeared capable of giving the party a formidable network of former commissioners, aides, legislators, technocrats and grassroots politicians with experience of Kaduna’s political structure.
The ADC primary, however, changed the dynamics. Ashiru’s victory over Jafaru Sani created dissatisfaction among some former El-Rufai associates who had expected greater support for Jafaru. Their subsequent return to the APC has become an important part of the 2027 political equation.
Bashir Saidu, who served as Commissioner for Finance and later Chief of Staff under El-Rufai, has returned to the APC and pledged to mobilise supporters for Uba Sani. Jafaru Sani, Abdu Kwari and other former associates have also confirmed their return.
Some of those returning politicians have said they felt let down by El-Rufai’s political direction, particularly his support for Ashiru rather than Jafaru Sani during the ADC primary. That is their explanation for the political rupture and should be understood as an attributed account rather than an independently established fact.
The movement raises questions about the extent to which the political machinery associated with El-Rufai remains within the ADC, while simultaneously expanding the coalition around the APC.
What will shape the 2027 contest?
Political realignment will be one of the major factors. Kaduna has witnessed significant movement of politicians between parties since 2023, including Katung’s defection from the PDP and the return of former El-Rufai associates from the ADC to the APC.
The second factor will be the ability of the opposition parties to consolidate their respective structures. Ashiru has statewide electoral experience, but the ADC must manage the loss of some former El-Rufai associates. Bawa must preserve and rebuild the PDP’s organisational base, while La’ah and the NDC face the more immediate question of resolving the party’s governorship ticket.
Regional coalition-building will also matter. The election will require candidates to construct alliances that reach Kaduna North, Kaduna Central and Kaduna South. Southern Kaduna will attract particular attention because recent political movements have made the zone more fluid in terms of party alignment.
Another factor will be the candidates’ records and how voters assess them. The APC will place Uba Sani’s record at the centre of its campaign, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, rural development, transportation, reconciliation and the Kaduna Peace Model. The opposition will scrutinise those claims and present its own interpretation of the administration’s record.
The apc’s challenge
The expansion of the APC coalition brings together politicians with different political histories, interests and constituencies. Managing those interests alongside established party structures will require sustained political coordination.
The advantage of an uncontested primary is that it removes one source of internal rivalry, but the wider coalition created through reconciliation and defections must still be managed. Its cohesion will be important as the party moves from internal nomination to the broader electoral contest.
The challenge is therefore not simply attracting politicians from other platforms, but maintaining sufficient coordination among the different groups once the campaign intensifies.
The battle ahead
The Kaduna governorship contest is developing around two broad processes, the consolidation of the incumbent’s political coalition and the opposition’s attempt to build competing statewide structures.
For Ashiru, the task is to convert his previous statewide electoral experience and the ADC’s political network into a unified campaign structure. For Bawa, it is the preservation and rebuilding of the PDP’s traditional base.
For La’ah, if the NDC ultimately confirms him as its candidate, it would be the challenge of translating his political profile into a statewide party organisation.
For Uba Sani, the challenge is to maintain the coalition that has developed around his administration and ensure that the different political blocs within the APC remain sufficiently coordinated.
The significance of the 2027 election will ultimately lie in how these competing political movements translate into voter mobilisation. Kaduna’s political history shows that alliances can change, loyalties can shift and established voting patterns can be disrupted.
What is emerging is a contest in which the APC enters with an incumbent candidate and an established party structure, while the opposition is working to convert several political platforms and personalities into coherent statewide challenges.
Whether these alignments remain intact until election day will be one of the central stories of the 2027 Kaduna governorship race.