In his October 1 broadcast to mark Nigeria’s 65th independence anniversary, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was flush with good tidings. ‘The worst is over, I say,’ he gushed. ‘Yesterday’s pains are giving way to relief. I support your endurance, support and understanding.’
The alluring statistics, which he reeled out, simply walked that cheery talk.
In second quarter 2025, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.25%, well above the 3.4 % the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected. Inflation, another critical economic monitor, fell to 20.12% in August. Though still two-digit, which points that it’s not yet checkmate on the inflationary front, it’s the lowest in three years. That shows how far the administration’s economic reforms have gone.
Jarring inflation was the clearest sign of the harsh combination of oil subsidy removal and floating the Naira against foreign currencies. The Naira devalued, jacking up cross-sectoral costs. So, if inflation is moderating, even while these twin-triggers are still on, it logically reflects an economy structurally re-adjusting – and improving. That supports the president’s claim that the worst is over.
Still on cheering statistics. For a near-mono economy that relies on crude oil sales, non-oil exports have virtually torn through the roof. Latest numbers show that non-oil export revenue now accounts for 48% of the total, though oil and gas still dominate at 52%: with Nigeria now exporting refined products: diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, etc.
Despite that, non-oil exports have closed the gap to this almost 50:50 – and that from virtual nowhere! In just more than two years, non-oil revenue is boosting Nigeria’s trade surplus. Indeed, non-oil earnings for September – which was N3.65 trillion – towered above May earnings by 411%, a feat the president called ‘record-breaking’. Export of made-in-Nigeria manufactured goods soared by 173%!
On debt capital – crucial to accessing quality loans: borrowed cash to build critical physical and social infrastructure – the improvements are no less impressive. Debt service-to-revenue ratio has improved from 97% in 2023 to less than 50% now. That ways-and-means advances are now history underscore the booming fiscal health of the economy.
From more secure debt capital, to improved tax revenue. From less than 10% in 2023, tax-to-GDP ratio has crested at 13.5% in 2025. But that is still lower than the African average of 15%. By 2027, the government projects an 18% tax-to-GDP ratio, well past the African average. With the revamped tax laws debuting from January 2026, this target appears very much attainable.
Aside the fiscal and monetary plain, the numbers from infrastructure, the hard core economic driver, are no less heart-warming. Rail infrastructure, from the president’s statistics, has grown by 40%; water transportation, by 27%.
The 284-km Kano-Katsina-Maradi standard gauge rail is powering to completion. When it is completed, linking Ibadan to Abuja would complete the Lagos-Ibadan-Kano standard gauge rail. That African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA)-friendly rail, modelled after the old trans-Sahara trade route, should gift Nigeria huge coast freight business, heading into land-locked neighbours.
The Lagos-Ibadan corridor is already adding great value to mass passengers and freight. Work goes on, on the Port-Harcourt-Aba-Maiduguri narrow-gauge eastern rail network too, for which the Federal Executive Council (FEC) just released US$ 3 billion. This rail rebirth will truly rebirth and expand the Nigerian economy.
Expansion and repair of decayed road stock go on apace: the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Highway, just to list two legacy road projects.
Indeed, this strong infrastructural push cannot be belittled. Unlike previous reforms under President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan that delivered collapsed infrastructure, despite relatively higher crude oil earnings, the current reforms tick with infrastructural expansion. The Tinubu administration has earned due praise for continuing with the infrastructure reset of the Buhari years.
On infrastructure, the president was insistent: ‘We must build the roads we need, repair the ones that have become decrepit and construct the schools our children will attend, and the hospitals that will care for our people,’ he stressed. Reforms that deliver big on infrastructure, physical and social, should be lauded and encouraged.
Now, with all of these statistical glad tidings, does it mean the country has arrived that comfort zone? Not by a mile! The president himself admitted that much.
The sweet-sour oil subsidy removal may have opened the spigot for far more cash into Nigeria’s three governmental tiers. But it hasn’t quite translated into a welfare boom for most. Indeed, the masses that received ‘little or nothing’ – in the president’s exact words – from oil subsidy have not exactly enjoyed a boom from the new non-subsidy regime.
Therein then lies the gravest challenge for the government – with its foes ever ready to weaponise the pains in the land; and demonise its gains with unending shrieks and anguish. While the opposition must play its politics – the government itself would have acted same in their shoes – President Tinubu must buckle down to further taming inflation, at least on food items and transport costs.
In fairness, food inflation is climbing down. But in many areas, it’s still higher than wages. That means the wage of many – if not most workers – can’t really take them home. Whoever listens to tales – no matter how sweet! – on rumbling tummy!
That grim reality may have prompted a N330 billion safety net conditional cash transfer to eight million poorest Nigerian households – very laudable! But until the cash ease is felt by those at the top of the poverty scale and the vanishing middle class, the government will still stay condemned to serenading its glorious statistics, with not a few looking askance.
Other areas the government can do far better are electricity – and security. But first, this presidential admission: ‘We do not have enough electricity to power our industries and homes today’ – candid!
Yet, it must be admitted: power appears generally more stable but not at that level that should sustainably power an economy to heights never seen. President Tinubu should take power as a personal challenge. The economy can’t hit US$ 1 trillion by 2031 with shambolic electricity.
On security, there have also been significant improvements. But such is the asymmetrical warfare of terror that it takes one terror hit, in one month, to rubbish the security progress of the last three years. The government should therefore keep pressing hard to root out these mindless felons.
Federalising the Police is critical to the new security beginning. The president, to be sure, has shown doughty commitment to state police. But he should use his bully pulpit to push state houses of assembly beyond the finishing line.
Across the board, the fundamentals are changing for the better. So, organised Labour, instead of ‘Aluta’ fixation with wage increases, should closely follow the numbers, galvanise their members to mega-productivity, in concert with the emerging better fundamentals. If, for instance, the economy expands four-fold, no government can dispute doubling wages as of right, citing the bogey of inflation. If they do, Labour can butt them down with clinical numbers. Now, is the time to start tracking and acting. As it is now, sans the political aristocrats, about everyone is underpaid in this economy.
As the president said, Nigeria since 1960 has gone through good and bad times. But for once, from these reform pains, a promising window appears opening to get it right. We – the government and the people – must ensure we don’t clap that window shut.