A strained social contract

There was a time when Nigerians worried mainly about unemployment, inflation, poor roads, and unreliable electricity.

Today, a more frightening concern dominates public discourse: terrorism. Across towns, villages, highways, schools, farms, and even places of worship, fear has become a constant companion. Kidnappers, terrorists, bandits, and armed criminal gangs have turned vast portions of the country into chapters of violence.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, is now a country under siege. Painfully, we have witnessed the insurgency-ravaged North-East, the bandit-infested North-West, the conflict-prone Middle Belt, emerging cases of kidnapping in the South-West and South-East, and insecurity has spread like a malignant disease across the federation.

The most disturbing aspect of this crisis is not merely the persistence of violence but the growing perception that criminal elements have become bolder while the state’s response remains inadequate. Nigerians now live with the constant fear that no place is truly safe.

The kidnapping industry has evolved from an occasional criminal activity into a thriving industry. What began years ago in parts of the Niger Delta has spread nationwide, becoming one of the most lucrative criminal enterprises in the country.

Schoolchildren are abducted from classrooms and dormitories. Farmers are seized from their farmlands. Travellers are intercepted on highways. Clergymen, traditional rulers, businessmen, and ordinary citizens have all become targets. Families often find themselves negotiating with kidnappers for the release of loved ones, sometimes selling property or borrowing heavily to raise ransom payments.

Recent reports indicate that kidnapping, once concentrated mainly in northern regions, is spreading into southern states with the chaotic spread raising concerns that no region remains immune. Communities that once considered themselves safe now live under the shadow and fear of possible attacks.

The psychological consequences are enormous – children attend school in fear, parents worry whenever family members embark on journeys, people avoid travelling after dark, while some have altogether abandoned road transport for fear of abduction.

The economic impact is equally devastating: businesses relocate, investments decline, agricultural production suffers as farmers abandon fertile lands to armed groups. Thus, communities are trapped in a cycle of poverty and insecurity, including psychological effects.

For years, Nigeria has battled terrorist organisations, particularly Boko Haram and its splinter groups, including the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).Despite repeated government declarations of victory, these groups continue to launch attacks, kill civilians, raid communities, abduct children, and target security personnel. Thousands have lost their lives, while millions have been displaced from their homes.

Even more worrisome is the evolution of terrorist tactics. Security analysts warn that extremist groups are increasingly exploiting ungoverned spaces, porous borders, and weak local institutions to expand their influence. New alliances between terrorists and criminal gangs have further complicated the security landscape.

The result is a conflict that appears increasingly difficult to contain. Armed groups operate with alarming freedom, attacking villages, rustling cattle, burning homes, and kidnapping residents. Entire rural communities have been emptied as people flee from violence. Some villages have effectively fallen under the control of criminal gangs that impose levies on residents and dictate local affairs.

The scale of the problem raises uncomfortable questions about state authority. In many affected areas, citizens report seeing bandits more frequently than government officials. Some communities have resorted to negotiating directly with criminals simply to survive.

Such arrangements may provide temporary relief, but they ultimately strengthen criminal networks and further weaken public confidence in government institutions.

It is a known fact that the security forces have been overstretched and are under pressure.

To be fair, Nigerian security personnel operate under extremely difficult

circumstances. Soldiers, police officers, intelligence operatives, and civil defence personnel face multiple security threats across a vast territory.

Many officers have paid the ultimate price in the line of duty. Others work with inadequate equipment, insufficient manpower, and difficult terrain.

Several successful rescue operations and counterterrorism campaigns demonstrate the courage and commitment of many security personnel.

Recent military operations have led to the rescue of abductees and the elimination of some criminal elements.

However, courage alone cannot compensate for systemic weaknesses.

Critics point to intelligence failures, poor coordination among security agencies, inadequate funding, corruption, delayed responses to distress calls, and insufficient prosecution of arrested suspects.

The persistence of attacks despite repeated warnings often reinforces public perceptions that the security architecture requires urgent reform.

Citizens frequently ask a troubling question: How can heavily armed criminals move freely through forests and highways while security agencies struggle to stop them?

The inability to provide convincing answers has contributed to growing frustration and distrust.

A pervading irony is that the government is spending money to upgrade infrastructures across the country but what Nigerians need most now is the grace to live, to be safe on the roads, in their homes, in schools and workplaces.

Government must now prioritise these felt needs over and above infrastructural development by equipping security forces to courageously fight and defeat terrorism in the country.

When insecurity becomes prolonged, it ceases to be merely a security problem; it becomes a social crisis. The consequences are visible in rising food prices, unemployment, reduced economic activity, and declining investor confidence.

A nation under siege cannot fully unlock its economic potential. Perhaps the gravest danger is the gradual erosion of public confidence.

When citizens repeatedly witness attacks, kidnappings, and killings without visible consequences for perpetrators, faith in institutions begins to weaken. Communities may become tempted to rely on self-help measures, vigilante groups, or ethnic militias.

History shows that such developments can create new security challenges and further undermine state authority. A government derives legitimacy partly from its ability to protect lives and property. When citizens feel unprotected, the social contract between the state and the people comes under strain.

This is why the current security crisis must be treated not merely as a law enforcement issue but as a threat to national cohesion itself. Until that happens, millions of Nigerians will continue to live with a painful reality: the feeling that they reside not in a secure nation, but in a nation under siege.

Oripeloye teaches Literature at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife.

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