Political borders have changed throughout history, with countries disappearing through war, political unions, independence movements and state collapse. In the coming decades, climate change, separatist movements, conflict and political divisions could again alter the global map.
For countries such as the Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu, rising sea levels raise a different question: what happens when people can no longer live on the land that defines their state? In Belgium, Spain and the UK, separatist pressures could test existing political arrangements, while Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Haiti, Somalia and Bosnia and Herzegovina face varying challenges linked to conflict, governance and territorial control.
None of these countries is certain to disappear within 50 years. However, their challenges highlight how political borders can evolve. By 2076, some countries may retain their current boundaries, while others could face territorial changes, constitutional restructuring or entirely new political realities.
According to the Voice, here are 15 countries whose current form could face pressure within the next 50 years.
1. Maldives: A Nation Facing Rising Seas
The Maldives is among the countries most exposed to rising sea levels. Most of its islands sit only a short distance above sea level, leaving communities exposed to flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion.
The government has explored options for securing land abroad as part of preparations for a future in which some islands may become difficult to inhabit. If sea levels continue to rise, the Maldives could face a situation in which its population has to live elsewhere even if its sovereignty remains.
2. Belgium: Divisions Between Flanders and Wallonia
Belgium has long been divided by language and regional politics. Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia have separate political interests, while Brussels remains a shared capital.
Political parties supporting greater regional autonomy have continued to influence national politics. A future agreement to divide powers further could raise questions about whether Belgium can remain a single state.
3. Kiribati: Preparing for Migration
Kiribati consists of low-lying islands in the Pacific Ocean. Rising sea levels threaten homes, farmland and sources of fresh water.
The government bought land in Fiji as part of preparations for food production and possible relocation. Officials have described the approach as a ‘dignified migration’ for future generations.
4. Bosnia and Herzegovina: A State Under Political Pressure
Bosnia and Herzegovina operates under a political system created by the 1995 Dayton Agreement. The system divides power among its constituent peoples and gives significant authority to its two entities.
Political disputes have continued, including calls from leaders in Republika Srpska for greater autonomy. Further disputes over the distribution of state power could put pressure on the country’s existing structure.
5. North Korea: What Happens After the Current System?
North Korea has survived predictions of collapse for decades. However, its economic problems, food insecurity and isolation continue to create uncertainty about its future.
A change in leadership or a political crisis could produce major changes on the Korean Peninsula. Such an outcome could lead to negotiations with South Korea, internal restructuring or the end of North Korea as a separate state.
6. Yemen: A Country Divided by War
Yemen has been affected by conflict since 2014. The Houthi movement controls much of the north and west, while other areas are controlled by the internationally recognised government and other armed groups.
The division has revived memories of North and South Yemen, which became one country in 1990. If political negotiations fail, calls for a return to separate states could gain more support.
7. Tuvalu: When Staying Becomes Difficult
Tuvalu faces rising sea levels, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. Fresh water and agricultural land are under pressure as the ocean affects the islands.
The country has also entered arrangements that could allow some citizens to move to Australia. For Tuvalu, the question is no longer only whether land will disappear, but whether people will be able to continue living there.
8. Libya: Rival Governments and Armed Groups
Libya has struggled to establish one national government since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
Rival administrations and armed groups continue to hold influence in different parts of the country. The presence of oil has not resolved the political dispute. Continued division could lead to a more permanent split in Libya’s political structure.
9. United Kingdom: Pressure on the Union
The United Kingdom faces pressure from independence and reunification movements.
Scotland continues to debate independence, while Northern Ireland has seen renewed discussion about Irish reunification. Political differences between the nations of the UK have also grown since Brexit.
A vote for Scottish independence or a future change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional status could leave the UK with a different structure.
10. Somalia: Somaliland’s Unresolved Status
Somalia has faced conflict and weak central government for decades. Somaliland declared independence in 1991 and has since operated with its own government and security institutions.
Although Somaliland is not widely recognised as an independent country, its separate political system has continued for more than three decades. A future agreement could result in formal independence or another arrangement between Somaliland and Somalia.
11. Spain: Catalonia and the Question of Independence
Spain continues to face demands for greater autonomy and independence in Catalonia and, to a lesser extent, the Basque Country.
The 2017 Catalan independence crisis brought the issue to the centre of Spanish politics. Although Catalonia remains part of Spain, future political changes could reopen the independence debate.
12. Iraq: Kurdish Independence Aspirations
Iraq’s Kurdistan Region has its own parliament, security forces and institutions. Kurdish political parties have also maintained support for greater autonomy and, among some groups, independence.
The 2017 Kurdish independence referendum showed the depth of the dispute, although the result did not lead to independence. Changes in Iraq or the wider region could bring the question back to the centre of politics.
13. Haiti: State Authority Under Pressure
Haiti is facing a crisis involving armed gangs, political instability and weak public institutions. Armed groups have expanded their control in parts of Port-au-Prince and other areas.
The central government’s ability to provide security and public services remains under pressure. Without changes in governance and security, the country’s territorial and political stability could face further challenges.
14. Cyprus: One Island, Two Political Systems
Cyprus has been divided since 1974. The Republic of Cyprus controls the south, while the Turkish Cypriot administration controls the north.
The Republic of Cyprus is internationally recognised, while Northern Cyprus is recognised only by Turkey. Repeated negotiations have failed to produce reunification.
If the division continues, the island could remain separated for another generation, making a permanent political settlement harder to achieve.
15. Moldova: Between Europe and a Breakaway Region
Moldova faces pressure from the unresolved status of Transnistria, a breakaway territory that has remained outside the control of the Moldovan government since the early 1990s.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased attention on Moldova’s security and political future. Moldova could move closer to Romania and the European Union, while the status of Transnistria could become part of a wider regional settlement.