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Moody’s Ratings has further trimmed its Philippine growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent previously as elevated energy prices and weak investment continue to weigh on economic activity.

In a report, the debt watcher said real gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic output, is expected to grow by 3.3 percent this year before recovering to 5.1 percent in 2027 as confidence improves and investment strengthens.

The new forecasts are lower than Moody’s August projections of 3.6 percent for 2026 and 5.3 percent for 2027.

Moody’s attributed the weaker near-term outlook to higher energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East and ‘still-subdued investment activity.’

Still, it said Philippine growth dynamics remain stronger than those of similarly rated economies, supported by infrastructure spending, remittance inflows and reforms aimed at attracting greater private and foreign investment.

Remittances from overseas Filipino workers, equivalent to around eight percent of GDP, continue to support household consumption and provide a stable source of external financing.

Moody’s said progress in project execution, investment liberalization and public-private partnership reforms should help lift investment and productivity over the medium term.

However, ‘implementation delays or weaker-than-expected investment could weigh on confidence, constrain private investment and slow medium-term growth potential,’ it said.

The rating agency also flagged lingering governance weaknesses that could hamper public investment.

It said recent reviews of infrastructure planning, budgeting and procurement ‘exposed governance weaknesses that led to significant project delays and weighed on investor confidence.’

The Philippines also ranked below the 30th percentile globally in both rule of law and control of corruption based on the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, according to Moody’s.

Despite these challenges, Moody’s said the government has maintained broad policy continuity and continued to pursue structural, fiscal and business environment reforms.

On the fiscal side, Moody’s expects consolidation to remain broadly on track despite weaker growth and uncertainty surrounding proposed revenue measures.

The general government deficit is projected to narrow to around four percent of GDP this year from 4.1 percent in 2025 as economic activity recovers, revenue administration improves and spending efficiency gains materialize.

However, Moody’s said weaker revenue growth, implementation challenges and pre-election spending pressures could slow the pace of deficit reduction.

It also noted that recent fiscal consolidation has partly reflected restrained capital spending, while improvements in revenue mobilization have remained gradual.

Government debt is expected to stabilize at around 58 percent of GDP over the next two years before declining gradually.

Debt affordability, however, remains the key constraint to fiscal strength, with interest payments projected to stay above 14 percent of government revenue compared with the roughly nine-percent median among similarly rated sovereigns.

Tomorrow morning, before most Filipinos have finished breakfast, they will already have depended on the maritime industry several times without realizing it.

The fuel that brought food to the supermarket. The wheat in bread. The farmer’s fertilizer. The medicine at the pharmacy. Much of what we use has traveled by sea.

We rarely think about the ships, ports or people that moved them.

That may be the maritime industry’s greatest paradox.

The better it works, the less we notice it.

But stop the ships. Close a port. Interrupt a supply chain. Damage a fishing ground. Suddenly, maritime is no longer invisible.

It is food prices. Fuel supplies. Raw materials for industries. A fisherman’s livelihood. An island awaiting relief after a typhoon.

For an archipelago, the sea does not merely surround the economy. The sea is part of the economy. And yet we have never quite learned to think about it that way.

We talk about seafarers as a labor. Ports as infrastructure. Shipbuilding as industrial policy. Fisheries as agriculture. Maritime security as defense. Education as training Filipinos to work aboard ships.

Each matters. But the sea does not divide itself according to the government’s organizational chart. We miss the larger picture connecting them.

That is the proposition behind Blue Philippines: to look at our maritime and marine ecosystem as one national development platform.

Congress is taking an important step through proposed Blue Economy legislation. The House-approved measure recognizes fisheries, tourism, shipping, shipbuilding, renewable energy and maritime education, providing a foundation for sustainable ocean development.

But we should go further. The Blue Economy framework can help us govern the ocean asset. Blue Philippines should ask how we organize the national economy around the full value that asset can sustainably support.

Consider what is already there. The Philippine ocean economy generated about P1.08 trillion in 2025 and employed 2.46 million Filipinos. More than half a million Filipino seafarers were deployed internationally, generating billions in remittances.

We are also a significant shipbuilding location, with enormous potential in offshore renewable energy. Our marine ecosystems support food, tourism, livelihoods and coastal protection.

The pieces already exist. What we have not done is connect them. And perhaps our greatest opportunity lies not beneath the sea or inside our ports, but in our people. For generations, one Philippine maritime success story has stood above all others: the Filipino seafarer.

Filipinos help operate the ships that carry the world’s food, energy, raw materials and manufactured goods. Few global industries have Filipinos playing such a significant role.

We should be proud of that achievement and protect it. But perhaps it has also narrowed our imagination. In the Philippines, maritime has too often become synonymous with seafaring.

It is not.

Someone owns a ship. Someone finances and insures it. Someone designs, builds and repairs it. Someone manages and supplies it. Someone writes its software, handles its cargo and advises on its law and regulation.

Around it are ports, logistics networks, shipyards, energy installations, universities, technology companies and coastal communities.

Why shouldn’t Filipinos participate in much more of that value chain? This question becomes especially important in education. The Philippines has more than 80 maritime higher-education institutions. Yet our system still largely defines maritime education as preparation for work aboard a ship.

International maritime degrees require onboard training, but berths are limited. Some students cannot complete the pathway they entered.

The answer is not to lower standards for going to sea. Those standards must remain high. The answer is to widen the number of places a maritime education can take a young Filipino.

Imagine a Philippine Maritime and Marine Skills Framework mapping the professions our economy will need over the next 10 or 20 years.

A marine engineering student might become a ship’s engineer or pursue shipbuilding, marine technology or offshore energy. A marine transportation student might go to sea or build a career in ports, logistics or fleet operations.

Then add marine science, maritime law, insurance, finance, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and environmental management.

Instead of educating Filipinos principally for jobs on ships, we begin educating them for careers across the maritime world. That is how a manpower advantage can become a knowledge advantage and eventually an economic one.

The same thinking should extend across the country.

Ports should become engines of regional development. Shipyards should anchor industrial clusters. Marine ecosystems should be treated as productive natural capital. Maritime technology should become an innovation opportunity. Offshore energy should build Filipino engineering and service capabilities, not simply generate electricity.

And environmental protection cannot be an afterthought. There can be no Blue Philippines if the blue disappears.

Healthy seas are not the alternative to development. Sustainable maritime growth depends on them. All of this requires policy, investment and institutions. But perhaps it begins with something even more basic.

A conversation.

A finance official asking why more maritime value is captured elsewhere. A university president asking what new professions a maritime school could teach. An entrepreneur wondering what maritime technology company could be built here. A mayor asking how better ports could transform a local economy. A student discovering that a career connected to the sea does not necessarily mean going to sea. A policymaker asking why an archipelago has never organized development around one of its most obvious advantages.

One question creates another. One conversation creates another. We do not need 50 million maritime experts. We need 50 million Filipinos who understand why maritime matters.

This is one of the few truly global industries that moves food, energy, trade, people and opportunity across borders every day.

Filipinos are already helping move it. They represent 25% of the total global workforce working on the international fleet. The Philippines is already a maritime nation by geography. The question is whether we now have the imagination to become a maritime economy by design.

We have spent decades helping move the world. It is time to ask what maritime can do to move the Philippines.

Amid rampant corruption, a telenovela impeachment trial, the peso’s spiraling devaluation, high prices of gas and food and Filipinos’ continued loss of hope for change, there is reason for hope in South Upi, Maguindanao del Sur: our Teduray and Lambangian brothers have finally secured a historic title to their ancestral lands.

Last week, as secretary general of the Philippine Association for Intercultural Development (PAFID), I joined NCIP Chair Nancy Catamco and BARMM Minister for Indigenous Peoples Affairs Guiamal Abdulrahman at the Tulak Kegeforor (ritual), marking the awarding of a Certificate of Ancestral Domain Title (CADT) for the Teduray and Lambangian, before a cheering crowd of hundreds of lumads.

This event is historic for several reasons: 1) the CADT covers 117,000 hectares, the largest area ever granted to an IP group; 2) it was issued in BARMM’s heartland; 3) it capped more than 20 years of struggle that began before the landmark Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act (IPRA) and 4) it was achieved against odds many considered impossible.

Like most IP communities, their ancestral domain claim predates RA 8371. The law overturned the colonial concept of land tenure, which held that all untitled land belongs to the State. IPRA recognized IPs’ land rights based on their historical occupation, possession and customary ownership of ancestral territories.

This landmark legislation established the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples (NCIP) and created a process for IP communities to secure communal titles by defining their territories and demonstrating historical occupation and customary ownership.

According to Teduray and Lambangian Ancestral Domain Claim (TLADC) chairman Alim Bandara, the original claim was filed in 2005 with the OSCC-ARMM, with assistance from the late human rights lawyer Rep. Greg Andolana. It used maps from Dr. Rey Ileto’s master’s thesis at Cornell University, which was published as a book entitled ‘Maguindanao 1860-1888.’

The long road to success was perilous given competing claims from other groups in the area, the ongoing peace process and the emerging consensus to grant autonomy to the Bangsamoro. There was a perception, even among IP groups, that ancestral domain rights would not be respected in the formulation of the BARMM law.

But they persevered and continued solidarity and peacebuilding efforts with the OSCC-ARMM, OPAPP, MILF, AFP, local governments and civil society organizations. Through their continued efforts, support was eventually secured from ARMM Gov. Mujiv Hataman, Rep. Nancy Catamco and MILF Peace Panel Chief Negotiator Mohaghel Iqbal.

The most challenging part of the ancestral domain claim was producing maps to delineate the extent of the proposed native title.

PAFID, a civil society organization specializing in GIS mapping, provided technical assistance through its Davao office to construct a three-dimensional model identifying the extent of the ancestral domain, train selected local survey teams in GPS instrumentation and conduct ground surveys of the identified ancestral domain territories.

PAFID has assisted numerous communities in securing their CADT, including the Ikalahans in Imugan, Nueva Vizcaya and the Tagbanuas in Coron, Palawan.

The 3D map was completed right after the 2005 filing, but NCIP did not issue the survey authority until a decade later. GPS instrumentation training and delineation followed in 2016, mapping 206,068 hectares.

Their efforts nearly came to naught when the newly established Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) passed BTA Reso 38 in 2019, urging the NCIP to cease and desist from the delineation process and from issuing CADTs. This was one of the transition period’s growing pains, as powers, programs and personnel were transferred from the national government to the newly created BARMM.

The issue was finally resolved when MIPA-BARMM and NCIP signed a memorandum of agreement in early 2025 to collaborate in assisting IP communities in the autonomous region.

The success of our Teduray and Lambangian brothers in securing their 117,000-hectare ‘lupang ninuno’ (ancestral lands) shows that miracles can happen when a well-organized community asserts its rights and works with civil society organizations in an environment where local and national government agencies, along with the BARMM, believe in justice and respect the law.

Getting the CADT is only the first step in their efforts to improve their people’s lives. But as Chairman Alim Bandara said, ‘Marami pa kaming agam-agam. Una, sa pulitika, masyadong hati ngayon ang pamunuan ng BARMM at maaari pa ring kuwestiyunin ang paggawad. Ikalawa, hindi pa nalulutas ang isyu ng mga kampo ng MILF na ngayon ay nasa loob ng CADT. Ikatlo, maraming may titulong lupa sa loob nito, at dapat na matukoy at ma mapa ang mga ito sa para sa mga programang pagpapaunlad sa loob ng CADT. Ganun pa man, ang mahalaga sa ngayon ay hawak na namin ang titulo.’

(We still have many fears. First, the leadership of BARMM is divided, and some may question the awarding of the CADT. Second, there are MILF camps inside the CADT, and this issue has to be resolved. Third, there are many titled properties within the CADT, and these should be identified and mapped as we develop the area. But what is important is that we now have the title.)

The struggle continues, but yes, there is hope in a sea of hopelessness.

Two Christian governors and a big group of now elderly members of the Moro National Liberation Front on Saturday, October 31, took turns assuring support for the peacebuilding initiatives of the now duly-mandated 80-seat Bangsamoro parliament.

Gerry Salapuddin, thrice wounded in encounters with soldiers during the 1970s while chairman of the MNLF’s Basilan Revolutionary Committee, told reporters on Saturday that he and other veterans of the front were elated with the stay of Abdulrauf Macacua as chief minister of BARMM.

He was nominated to the post by colleagues in the parliament during their inaugural session on Friday.

‘Our wish now is for Chief Minister Macacua to keep his promise to ensure inclusivity in governance of BARMM, one that shall involve the Muslims and Christian and indigenous non-Moro communities in the region,’ Salapuddin said.

Members of the BARMM interim parliament, including Macacua who served as lawmakers from 2019 until the September 14 Bangsamoro regional elections were presidential appointees. Their tenures ended after last month’s first ever elections in the autonomous region.

‘We will help Chief Minister Macacua forge ahead with his development initiatives for all the Muslim, Christian and indigenous non-Moro communities in the autonomous region. We also wish he could establish an office that could be his conduit to MNLF veterans who pioneered the Moro uprising for self-governance in the 1970s,” Salapuddin said.

MNLF veterans, a number of them maimed by bullet wound sustained in encounters with soldiers during the 1970s, separately told reporters on Saturday that they are optimistic that Macacua, also a former Moro guerilla, will embark on humanitarian programs for them and the now elderly members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The MNLF and the MILF have separate peace compacts with the government and cooperated in managing some of the ministries and support agencies under the BARMM government while still under an interim parliament from 2019 until the election last month of 80 regional lawmakers, who nominated Macacua as their chief minister during their first plenary session on Friday.

Two non-Moro provincial governors in Region 12, Emmylou Taliño-Mendoza of Cotabato and Reynaldo Tamayo, Jr. of South Cotabato, who both have Moro constituents, among them members of the MNLF and the MILF, separately extended on Saturday their greetings to Macacua for his having secured an imprimatur, from 51 of the 80 members of the parliament, for him to continue functioning as BARMM’s chief minister.

Taliño-Mendoza told reporters on Saturday that she and her constituent-local executives shall continue supporting the security and humanitarian programs of the BARMM government in the eight municipalities in the Bangsamoro Special Geographic Area, or SGA, which is under the autonomous regional government, but are inside Cotabato, one of the four provinces in Region 12.

‘Residents of the SGA are related by blood to Moro villagers in the municipalities in our province. They are connected to us in terms of commerce and trade. We will support the peace and development initiatives in the area of the now duly-mandated BARMM parliament,’ said Taliño-Mendoza, chairperson of the multi-sector Regional Development Council 12.

Macacua told reporters on Friday that she appreciates the commitment by Taliño-Mendoza, a known supporter of the national government’s peace overtures with southern Moro communities.

“Her administration has not stopped from extending essential services to residents of the Bangsamoro SGA in her province, which has 63 barangays now grouped into different BARMM municipalities, despite being no longer under their provincial government,” Macacua said.