Following the US war in Iran, diesel and petrol prices in Kenya rose to the Sh200 mark for the first time in nearly three years.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over ships’ passage through this critical waterway expose Kenya’s vulnerability to external shocks. Long queues at petrol stations and soaring prices are evidence of this.
The situation is a refrain in Kenya, which experienced similar disruption during the Covid pandemic and at points during the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.
This is yet again a loud signal for Kenya to end its reliance on fossil fuels.
Kenya is almost entirely dependent on imported petroleum products. With each international crisis, global price shocks pummel the economy, pushing up transportation, food, and production costs.
Rising oil prices also increase demand for foreign currency, putting additional pressure on the Kenyan shilling and driving inflation.
Moreover, escalating geopolitical tensions raise new risks for Kenya’s trade with Gulf countries, valued at more than Sh700 billion. The situation underscores how deeply interconnected the country’s economy is with volatile global supply chains.
One way Kenya can help reduce its vulnerability is to give greater attention to its bioeconomy – that is, using the renewable, biological resources from Kenya’s plants, animals, microorganisms and biomass to sustainably produce food, energy, materials, and industrial products.
In 2025, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) conducted a study that examined the bioeconomy sector, and its potential in Colombia, Thailand and Kenya. The findings showed that the bioeconomy can support Kenya in critical areas such as energy transitions and, sustainable food systems.
Kenya has not fully explored or exploited this potential. For example, waste from agriculture, forest by-products and organic materials often fail to undergo value addition. Such wastes and by-products are resources that can be converted into, for example, biogas, bioethanol, and biodiesel which are alternative sources of energy.
For example, Kenya’s agricultural sector generates over 15 million tonnes of crop residues each year, and it is forecast to generate another eight million tonnes of animal waste by 2050. The country produces about 8.8 million tonnes of municipal waste each year.
Most of these wastes are poorly managed yet they represent a major, untapped resource for energy and a potential, and additional income stream for smallholder farmers. At the same time, using these resources for energy can help reduce costs of waste disposal.
Unlike imported fossil fuels, these alternatives can be sourced locally and are less susceptible to global supply chain disruptions. This is particularly important for transportation, one of the largest energy-consumptive sectors in Kenya, and which depends almost entirely on imported fossil fuels. Bioenergy can play a critical role in bridging this gap.
Investing in bioenergy systems has another potential benefit. It could help improve health outcomes in rural areas where charcoal and wood are the most common sources of energy.
Over 70 percent of Kenyan households still rely on biomass such as firewood and charcoal for cooking, highlighting both the scale of energy poverty and the opportunity for modern bioenergy solutions.
Aside from transportaion, food systems are equally impacted by global disruptions.
Rising fuel price raises the costs of fertilisers, irrigation, mechanisation, and transport, reducing farmer profitability, and contributing to food inflation.
Imported fertilisers, for example, have become more expensive for farmers during the Iran conflict.
Despite the government’s subsidy programme and a promising rainy season in April, farmers who attempt to economise by cutting back on recommended levels of fertiliser are likely to experience poor yields. This will have ripple effects on the country’s food security.
Bioeconomy offers an opportunity to rethink how food is produced, processed, and distributed. Waste from agriculture can be converted into organic fertilisers and animal feed that are more affordable for farmers.