FIFTY-FIVE percent of Filipinos want first to see and assess the evidence presented on the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte before deciding whether she should be acquitted or removed from office.
Octa Research’s July 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey suggests that public opinion on the impeachment case remains fluid, with a majority of adult Filipinos saying it is too early to predict the outcome. Many respondents said they would rather see the evidence presented during the trial before deciding whether the case has merit.
By comparison, 21 percent said the Senate should acquit Duterte and clear her of the charges, while 17 percent favored her conviction and removal from office.
Another 7 percent had no opinion or remained undecided.
Octa pointed out that the findings indicate that neither the pro-acquittal nor pro-conviction camp currently commands a significant national majority, with only a 4-percentage-point difference between the two groups.
Octa said the results point to an ‘evidence-first’ position among most Filipinos, with the public largely prepared to reserve judgment until the Senate Impeachment Court has heard and evaluated the evidence.
‘This is best read as an early baseline,’ Octa said, noting that the survey was conducted from July 4 to 11, shortly after the impeachment trial began and before most of the evidence and arguments had been presented.
The survey involved 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above interviewed face-to-face nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
The group said preference to see the evidence before deciding was the leading response in all four major geographic areas and across socioeconomic classes.
It was cited by 56 percent of respondents in the National Capital Region, 58 percent in Balance Luzon, 53 percent in the Visayas and 48 percent in Mindanao.
Forty-one percent of respondents in the region favored acquittal, compared with just 6 percent who supported conviction. The evidence-first position was cited by 48 percent.
Outside Mindanao, acquittal preferences were considerably lower-22 percent in the Visayas, 21 percent in the NCR and 12 percent in Balance Luzon. Balance Luzon recorded the highest support for conviction at 22 percent.
Octa noted that the broad-area Mindanao results, based on about 300 respondents and carrying a margin of error of approximately ±6 percent, are more statistically robust than results for individual regions. Within Mindanao, Duterte’s political strongholds showed the strongest preference for acquittal. Davao Region registered 61 percent support for acquittal, the highest in the country, while the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao recorded 49 percent.
Octa cautioned, however, that the regional figures should be interpreted with their smaller sample sizes in mind. Davao Region had about 60 respondents and an estimated margin of error of ±13 percent, while BARMM had about 45 respondents and an estimated margin of error of ±15 percent.
Age groups
THE evidence-first position also led across all age groups, although preferences between conviction and acquittal varied considerably.
Among those aged 18 to 24, 26 percent favored conviction-the highest conviction figure recorded across the age groups-while 16 percent favored acquittal.
Respondents aged 55 to 64 were also relatively more inclined toward conviction, at 24 percent, compared with 22 percent for acquittal.
By contrast, Filipinos aged 25 to 54 who had already formed a position generally leaned toward acquittal. Among those aged 25 to 34, 26 percent favored acquittal compared with 11 percent for conviction. For those aged 35 to 44, the figures were 19 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
The strongest acquittal preference among age groups was recorded among those aged 45 to 54, at 28 percent, compared with 15 percent who favored conviction.
The oldest respondents were the most likely to remain undecided. Among those aged 75 and above, 28 percent expressed no opinion.
Socio-economic differences
OCTA found a contrasting pattern by socioeconomic class.
The evidence-first position led among Class ABC, D and E respondents, at 64 percent, 54 percent and 50 percent respectively.
Conviction sentiment increased with socioeconomic class, from 13 percent among Class E to 17 percent among Class D and 22 percent among Class ABC.
Acquittal sentiment moved in the opposite direction, rising from 11 percent among Class ABC to 21 percent among Class D and 30 percent among Class E.
Octa said these patterns broadly mirror the geographic divide, with acquittal sentiment stronger among lower-income respondents and in Mindanao, while conviction was comparatively stronger among higher-income respondents and in Balance Luzon.
Trial process
THE latest findings build on Octa’s April 2026 TNM survey, when 74 percent of adult Filipinos said they supported holding a Senate impeachment trial for Duterte.
Octa said the combination of the earlier support for a trial and the current 55 percent evidence-first position may indicate that Filipinos’ support for the trial process has carried through into the proceedings themselves, including the 7 percent who remain undecided, nearly two-thirds of Filipinos have yet to settle on a verdict at this early stage of the proceedings.
The pollster said this should not necessarily be interpreted as public confusion or disengagement. Rather, the results may reflect a preference for allowing due process to take its course and for conviction or acquittal to be determined by evidence presented during the trial.
‘The evidence-first position leads in all four major geographic areas and across socioeconomic classes,’ Octa said, noting that the prevailing view is that the verdict should depend on the evidence presented during the trial.
Octa emphasized the survey only provides an early snapshot rather than a final assessment of public opinion on the merits of the impeachment case. Moreover, it stressed that views could change as evidence is presented, arguments are heard and more information becomes available to the public.