Metro Manila’s cool January mornings may give way to drought and heat in 2027, as a very strong El Niño is projected to bring drought conditions to the capital, straining water and health services in a region of 14 million people, according to a snapshot by the United Nations in the Philippines.
January is normally among the capital’s coolest months, when the northeast monsoon, or amihan, usually peaks.
The UN snapshot, dated Oct. 30 and drawing on data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the government, among other sources, projects that drought was set to begin in October in Bicol and Eastern Visayas. It expects 54 provinces to be affected by the end of 2026 and most of the country by March 2027.
The UN urged the public to follow official PAGASA forecasts.
Peak impacts are expected from late 2026, but there is still ‘a critical window’ to prepare, the UN said. Effects on food access are likely to last into the second quarter of 2027, beyond the climatic peak.
Metro Manila had 14 million residents as of the 2024 census, about one in eight Filipinos, with Quezon City alone home to more than 3 million.
For scale, a service interruption affecting 1 percent of NCR residents would reach about 140,000 people; at 5 percent, about 700,000.
Nationwide, the UN said declining reservoir, groundwater and surface water levels could cause more service interruptions and lower output from smaller water systems from late 2026, along with poorer water quality.
One in three barangays has been identified as vulnerable, and the government is allocating funds to expand water service coverage.
Peak electricity demand could rise by 10.7 percent.
The UN also said fuel and freight disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict could amplify effects on prices and livelihoods.
About 4.6 million farmers and fisherfolk could be affected by rainfall deficits and heat and water stress.
Health, schools, vulnerable groups
The UN snapshot warns of a rising risk of heat-related illness, with a ‘high alert’ in the first quarter of 2027.
Hospitals are being readied for a patient surge, and emergency room visits and admissions may rise in the second quarter. Water scarcity could also raise the risk of water-borne and food-borne disease.
In education, heat and inadequate school sanitation may disrupt attendance, and class interruptions and household income losses could increase absenteeism, dropout and learning loss in the first quarter of 2027.
The UN said women and girls face higher risks, including gender-based violence, while children face heightened risks of malnutrition. Persons with disabilities and older persons may also be disproportionately affected.
Government response
The government has allocated $123.2 million (about P7.8 billion) for readiness and response through the El Niño Task Force, which includes the Department of Agriculture (DA), Office of Civil Defense (OCD), Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and other agencies.
The task force is prioritizing water security, food supply, public health, public safety and energy resilience.
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So far, 109 cities and municipalities have declared a state of calamity.
Separately, the DA has provided $117 million (about P7.3 billion) in interventions, including production support, cloud seeding, crop insurance, and poultry and livestock distribution. The government is also stepping up health communication on heat-related illness.
UN role
UN agencies, including World Food Program and Food and Agriculture Organization, are supporting government work on El Niño.
This includes helping develop a national drought anticipatory action framework, engaging with PAGASA on the outlook and drought monitoring, and assessing priority water and sanitation needs in at-risk areas.
The UN said it could also help prepare water and hygiene supplies and link affected households to cash assistance, subject to government priorities and available resources.