Category: Business Daily

The Kenyan government’s motor vehicle leasing programme has created clear winners across manufacturing, security and public finance -while exposing pressure points around delivery timelines, financial costs and supplier concentration.

Since inception in 2013, the programme has seen 3,548 vehicles leased, anchoring demand for locally assembled vehicles and reshaping how the state procures and manages its transport fleet.

The biggest beneficiaries have been local vehicle assemblers and suppliers, with the programme supporting 1,813 full-time jobs and the local assembly of more than 10,000 vehicles.

Local content in vehicle assembly has risen sharply, from nine percent to 38 percent, reflecting increased sourcing of parts and services domestically.

Parts and accessory manufacturers have secured business estimated at Sh400 million, while the expanded fleet has created a Sh2.2 billion annual market for oil and petroleum products.

The Treasury has also emerged as a net winner. Programme data shows Sh2.69 billion in government revenue generated alongside Sh1.6 billion in tax remittances, helping offset some of the programme’s costs.

By shifting from outright purchases to leasing, the government has also reduced upfront capital expenditure, smoothing cash flows even as fleet size expanded.

The expanded vehicle fleet has coincided with measurable improvements in security outcomes, particularly within the police service.

Kenya recorded a crime index of 196 incidents per 100,000 people over the past eight years, while incidents where police failed to respond to emergencies fell from 49 percent in 2012 to 22.1 per cent in 2024.

Police surveillance coverage increased by 25.4 percent, and response times to distress calls were cut by 50 percent between 2012 and 2022, gains officials attribute partly to improved fleet availability.

One of the biggest corporate beneficiaries has been Isuzu East Africa, which is set to supply 591 vehicles in the latest instalment of the National Police Service (NPS) leasing programme.

Isuzu last week delivered the first 95 vehicles under the contract in which other dealers are also participating.

The contract reinforces Isuzu’s dominant position in Kenya’s commercial vehicle market and underscores the importance of state-backed demand in sustaining local assembly operations.

As the government continues to rely on leasing for official transport, the programme is increasingly being judged not just on fleet numbers, but on its ability to support local manufacturing, improve service delivery and deliver value for taxpayers.

Higher share prices at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) have cut the dividend yields for a majority of companies to single digits, forcing investors to consider alternative performance metrics such as profit ratios when making their stock picks in the market.

The bourse has seen its valuation go up by Sh1 trillion or 49.3 percent to Sh3.04 trillion over the last 12 months, mainly on double-digit percentage gains among large blue chip stocks that are also the more consistent dividend payers in the market.

Before the bull run of the last two years, dividend paying stocks were offering investors high yields that competed favourably with returns on government paper, including tax free infrastructure bonds.

The yields are calculated on the dividend per share as a percentage of share price, meaning they tend to fall when share prices rally, unless the companies raise their payout at a similar pace to their share prices.

Investors in the stock market earn a return on their capital when share prices go up, better known as capital gains, or through dividend payouts.

Dividend yields are, however, only one of the several metrics that an investor can use to identify investable stocks. For those chasing capital gains, a stock’s trading multiple is an indicator of whether it is cheap or expensive, which determines the potential to gain or lose value in future.

‘Dividends had been a key driver of investor trading activity on the NSE especially in the 2018 – 2023 period given that it was on a long bear (downward trending) run,’ said analysts at Sterling Capital in an equities note published on Wednesday.

‘However, investors are increasingly gravitating towards valuing stocks through earnings multiples (price to earnings and price to book) as the NSE bull (upward trending) market has gained steam.’

Out of the 31 companies that paid a dividend for the 2024 financial year, only four have a trailing dividend yield of more than 10 percent -Standard Chartered Bank Kenya (14.7 percent), BAT Kenya (10.64 percent), Kapchorua Tea (10.59 percent) and Stanbic Holdings (10.48 percent).

One year ago, 11 companies were returning above 10 percent, led by cross-listed Ugandan power utility Umeme at 15.8 percent and KenGen at 15.2 percent. Yields for 11 companies have fallen below five percent, including large blue-chip firms Safaricom (4.1 percent), EABL (3.14 percent) and KCB Group (4.48 percent).

These large companies are the top dividend payers in the market, making them a favoured investment option for institutional and foreign investors who buy stocks with a longer term outlook, as opposed to speculators who take positions solely to benefit from short term share price increases.

A company’s ability to pay and increase dividends is also seen as a strong indicator of good financial health and stability, and when that is combined with a high yield as a result of low share price, it can point to an undervalued company.

Majority of companies are also offering investors an annual return that is well below what they would be getting from short term government securities over the same period.

The 91-day and 364-day Treasury bills are currently offering investors pre-tax interest returns of 7.7 percent and 9.2 percent respectively, having halved from highs of 16.9 percent in September 2024. Treasury bonds are meanwhile paying annual returns or coupons of between 12 and 14 percent.

The Kenya Association of Travel Agents (KATA) has joined global industry bodies in opposing a decision by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to impose standardised Billing and Settlement Plan (BSP) remittance periods across all markets.

IATA, through a recent member vote, adopted a resolution to introduce uniform global remittance terms by mid-2026, eliminating the long-standing flexibility for local market determination under joint governance mechanisms between airlines and agents.

The BSP, which presently covers more than 207 countries and over 400 airlines, is used to track and manage air ticket sales and the associated financial transactions. It facilitates and simplifies financial transactions between IATA-accredited Passenger Sales Agents and BSP airlines, while also helping improve financial control and efficiency.

IATA said the changes are intended to harmonise settlement processes across markets and strengthen the efficiency and security of airline revenue collection under the BSP framework.

KATA, however, warned that the move risks destabilising Kenya’s travel trade, raising ticket prices and pushing local agencies out of business.

The association argues that the decision dismantles long-standing locally agreed arrangements that reflect domestic financial systems, payment behaviour and commercial realities in markets such as Kenya.

‘Our local market is very unique. Kenya is still largely a credit market, with a bigger portion of our travel comprising corporate and government travel. For both corporate and government travel, you are never paid upfront or immediately. We still issue tickets on credit and then get paid later,’ says KATA chief executive officer Nicanor Sabula.

Remitting funds

According to Mr Sabula, delayed payments are a structural feature of the Kenyan market, with settlement periods often stretching far beyond a month.

To accommodate these realities, Kenya’s BSP remittance cycles have historically been determined locally through the Agency Programme Joint Council (APJC), a platform that brings together airlines and travel agents to jointly agree on settlement terms.

‘Currently, we remit twice a month.’ Mr Sabula says.

Under the BSP, IATA-accredited agents centrally remit funds to IATA, which then distributes them to participating airlines according to their share of ticket sales.

Critics said shortening and strictly standardising remittance periods would require agents to pre-finance customer payments to a greater extent and advance money to airlines before (corporate) clients have paid in full.

KATA said the move towards global standardisation gives IATA the power to unilaterally alter settlement cycles, including shifting markets such as Kenya to weekly remittance, a model already applied in parts of Europe and other Western markets.

‘In those markets, they don’t have such a huge credit market for travel. People pay via credit cards or cash, so it’s easier to turn around the money,’ Mr Sabula said. ‘Those are local conditions that need to be factored in.’

Mr Sabula adds that forcing agents to settle weekly would significantly increase their reliance on bank financing. ‘If the travel agent has to cover that credit, it means they must go to banks for overdraft facilities, and that is costly. It makes the cost of doing business high,’ he says.

KATA maintains that the current remittance framework, although sometimes tight, has supported the sustainability of agencies by aligning settlement timelines with corporate and government payment cycles.

‘Even though it’s a bit pressed, remitting twice a month means we are able to access credit within that period and settle, knowing that most corporates and government pay monthly. The credit taken from banks is for a shorter period, so it’s easier to cover,’ Mr Sabula says.

KATA fears

He says a shift to weekly remittance would raise capital requirements across the industry. ‘This will challenge both big and small agencies because the capital demand will be much higher. The risk is that we are going to see a lot of travel agents pushed out of business.’

Beyond business closures, KATA fears the policy could shrink Kenya’s travel market by tilting competition in favour of large international travel sellers with access to cheaper offshore capital.

‘We are likely to lose business to international travel sellers who can access capital elsewhere and then service the local market. They will be able to price their tickets lower than our local players, squeezing Kenyan agents out of the ticket market,’ Mr Sabula says.

KATA also warned of a likely rise in ticket prices for consumers as higher financing costs are passed down the value chain.

‘If the cost of accessing credit goes up, somebody has to cover that cost, and that is likely to be passed on to the consumer,’ Mr Sabula says.

On governance, KATA criticised what it described as inadequate consultation during the IATA mail-vote process.

‘We have not seen the engagement of the travel agency community, which is unacceptable. IATA regulations call for a participatory approach where agents and airlines sit and agree. To unilaterally make these changes completely skews the relationship. IATA is almost taking a monopoly position on a very significant decision that could affect the market,’ Mr Sabula says.

The association has aligned itself with concerns raised by the United Federation of Travel Agents’ Associations (UFTAA), calling for a reconsideration of the policy and a return to consultative governance.

‘We are disappointed by IATA’s unilateral decision to change a system that has worked well and served the Kenyan market effectively for many years. Any global intervention that overlooks local market conditions risks destabilising the travel distribution ecosystem,’ says KATA chairman Dr Joseph Kithitu.

International Finance Corporation (IFC) plans to make an equity investment of up to $30 million (Sh3.87 billion) in a pan-African private equity fund focused on small and medium sized enterprises in markets such as Kenya.

The amount will be invested in Adenia Entrepreneurial Fund I (AEF I), which is headquartered in Mauritius and has five regional offices covering Kenya, Madagascar, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa.

IFC said it is also ready to co-invest with the fund to the tune of $20 million (Sh2.58 billion) where the asset manager will be in charge of running the portfolio.

The commitments will offer a boost to the fund, which is targeting to raise between $150 million (Sh19.35 billion and $180 million (Sh23.2 billion).

‘IFC will play a catalytic role as an anchor investor for AEF I, helping the fund complete its first close. The co-investment envelope will also help the fund attract additional follow-on equity capital,’ said IFC in latest investment disclosures.

In October last year, Adenia announced it was going to acquire insurance broker Minet as part of a pan-African deal that also expands its Kenyan portfolio, which includes supermarket chain QuickMart Limited, Red Land Roses and Africa Biosystems Limited.

The fund targets growth equity investments in 10 to 12 small-cap companies with amounts ranging from $10 million (Sh1.29 billion) to $20 million (Sh2.58 billion). Adenia has been in existence for over 22 years, raising a cumulative $950 million (Sh122.55 billion) over this period.

IFC says the fund is expected to increase access to private equity capital and value-creation for small-cap companies in Africa.

Adenia will need to attract additional investments by riding on IFC investment giving comfort to global investors looking to participate in the African-focussed PE market.

‘Beyond the project, the fund’s success will also showcase the viability of the small-cap regional private equity model as an opportunity for international investors to re-engage with the African PE market. This will, in turn, encourage other fund managers in the region to raise new or follow-on funds of greater scale and catalyze new PE activity across the region,’ said IFC in latest disclosures.

Kenya has lauded a decision by the US House of Representatives to pass a Bill to extend the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) programme, which provides preferential access to the key market for goods from select African nations.

The US House of Representatives voted on Monday to extend Agoa for three years, marking a relief for Kenyan exporters to the US who had been hit by tariffs as much as 42 percent from October 1, 2025, and thousands of jobs for firms at export processing zones (EPZs) were at risk.

Investments, Trade, and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui said that the decision renews certainty in the EPZ sector.

‘The uncertainty that had engulfed the sector will now give way to renewed confidence and expansion. We aim to grow exports of additional products under the Agoa framework beyond textiles, ensuring that Kenya fully leverages this opportunity to create jobs and generate wealth,’ the CS said.

In Kenya, the textile and apparel industries operating within the EPZs employ over 80,000 people directly and an additional 250,000 indirectly.

The Agoa pact allows the entry of more than 6,000 products, such as food and beverages, wood, plastics, and rubber, to the US market from sub-Saharan Africa. But Kenya has largely tapped the apparel line, alongside small quantities of macadamia nuts.

Agoa extension would offer relief to Kenyan exporters who have been relying on the pact for more than two decades, building an industry that exported Sh60.5 billion goods in 2024 alone.

Over the past five years, firms exported 518.3 million pieces of textiles and apparel to the US under Agoa, with the number of companies operating under the framework increasing from 28 in 2020 to 40 in 2024.

Players, including manufacturers who have benefitted from the programme and the government, have been lobbying for its extension since early last year, with delegations dispatched to the US in recent months.

The manufacturers said that shipments to the US had been slapped with full duties ranging from 15 to 42 percent since the lapse of Agoa last September.

‘Currently, manufacturers are paying a full duty range of 15 to 42 percent, plus a 10 percent reciprocal tariff. This is a high cost that would be waived through the negotiated agreement or Agoa extension,’ Tobias Alando, the chief executive officer of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) told Business Daily in an earlier interview.

The Kenya Private Sector Alliance indicated that the extension of Agoa provides an opportunity to grow apparel exports from nearly $600 million (about Sh77.40 billion) to $2 billion (Sh258 billion), potentially creating 200,000 new jobs through backward integration in textiles, yarn, and cotton.

In a country where public service delivery is already strained by insufficient resources, inefficiency and crumbling infrastructure, one would expect the little available funding to be used prudently.

Play Video

Unfortunately, that is not the case. Instead, Kenya’s public bodies appear trapped in a legal quagmire, expending vast sums fighting one another over disputes that could be resolved with common sense and far fewer resources.

A case that has recently drawn public attention involves Nairobi County, which faces the prospect of paying a staggering Sh1.3 billion in legal fees to a single law firm.

This is not an isolated incident. Some of the county’s largest outstanding bills relate to legal fees, with Nairobi owing law firms just over Sh21 billion – about 11 per cent of its total pending bills portfolio.

Of this amount, four firms alone are owed more than Sh6 billion, representing nearly 29 per cent of the county’s legal pending bills. The Auditor-General’s report for the year ending June 2024 paints an even grimmer picture. It found that in many counties there is no evidence that the Advocates Remuneration Order of 2014 is applied when determining legal fees.

Lawyers earning hundreds of millions from county governments are often selected from pre-qualified lists, with little or no assessment of legal costs or internal legal capacity.

Nairobi, in particular, appears to have become a cash cow for lawyers. The public, meanwhile, is left to foot the bill. This trend is not confined to Nairobi.

Across the country, counties are grappling with mounting legal costs that threaten to undermine public service delivery. With some cases dragging on for years, these protracted disputes are not only financially crippling but also emblematic of how wasteful use of public resources continues to stall development.

When governments engage in endless litigation, often over trivial matters, they keep law firms flush with cash while shifting focus away from citizens’ needs.

The cost is not merely financial. Each legal showdown delays infrastructure projects, disrupts public services and creates uncertainty that stifles investment and innovation. It is also telling that many of those driving these disputes are highly paid public officials who appear more interested in personal gain than amicable resolution.

As a nation, we must ask whether it is truly necessary for public entities to spend billions fighting one another in court. Ultimately, this is not just about wasted funds but a failure of leadership.

For Kenya’s future, there must be a decisive shift away from courtroom follies and towards responsible stewardship of public resources.

Easier access to the interbank market by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has greatly helped stabilise the liquidity of foreign exchange in the local market and supported a stable exchange rate, as witnessed over the past 18 months, a top commercial bank official has said.

The Kenyan shilling has stabilised in the range of 128 to 129 units to the US dollar for more than 16 months now.

Absa Bank Kenya’s Director in charge of Global Markets, Stella Mambo, said that the CBK’s interventions in reforming the interbank market, starting mid-2023, have significantly aided in deepening liquidity in the market as well as boosting the flow of funds between parties.

The CBK on August 9, 2023, introduced an interbank interest rate corridor anchored on the benchmark rate as part of efforts to ensure borrowers benefited from cuts in its indicative lending rate.

‘The other intervention, besides the corridor introduction, was in terms of the notional sizes that we used to trade. Previously, the minimum ticket size was north of $500,000. That got reduced to $250,000, and that allowed more participants into the interbank market, which created liquidity and flow of funds through the system,’ Ms Mambo said.

Banks may borrow money from other banks in the inter-bank market to ensure that they have enough liquidity for their immediate needs, or lend money when they have excess cash on hand. The interbank lending system is short-term, typically overnight, and rarely more than a week.

A lower interbank lending rate means that banks have relatively lower costs in managing their liquidity and meeting regulatory requirements. The interbank lending rate also has an influence on the cost of borrowing for consumers, as it determines part of a lender’s funding expenses.

The CBK has implemented substantial reforms in the interbank market, primarily through a transition from the risk-based loan pricing model to the Kenya Shilling Overnight Interbank Average (Kesonia)-a benchmark rate that reflects the average interest rate at which banks lend and borrow unsecured overnight funds in local currency.

The new model uses the interbank rate as the common reference rate for determining lending rates to all customers. Banks are allowed to load a premium (K) on the reference rate, now referred to as Kesonia. The total lending rate is now calculated as Kesonia + Premium (‘K’), where the premium reflects the borrower’s risk profile, bank costs, and shareholder returns.

Ms Mambo further holds that a move by the CBK to create a window for shorter tenors for players scouting for local currency funding to come to market has also provided a major boost for liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

‘The other intervention was around looking at scenarios where, if counterparties are coming to the market to borrow local currency funding, they had to sell dollars, and to support that, there had to be limits prescribed. What happened in that space is that non-residents were now allowed to come to market for tenors of even less than six months, whereas before it had to be for a year, and this has created flexibility and the market is quite efficient,” she said.

The official said adoption of the Global Foreign Exchange Code in March 2023 is also said to have played a crucial role in the stabilisation of the foreign exchange market.

The Global Code is maintained by the Global Foreign Exchange Committee (GFXC) as a set of guidelines to ensure an efficient wholesale foreign exchange market.

The GFXC was established in May 2017 as a forum to bring together central banks and private sector participants to promote collaboration and communication on forex matters, and exchange views on trends and developments.

‘Three years ago, there were two big challenges with the foreign exchange market. The first was price discovery, and the second was liquidity. The first intervention was the adoption of the Global Foreign Exchange Code in March 2023, of which Kenya was initially not part.

This helped in bringing market integrity and laying down standards on how foreign exchange transactions take place, especially around governance, risk management, and transparency,” said Ms Mambo.

Analysts have raised concerns over the valuation method used to determine the Sh34 per share price at which the government is selling a 15 percent stake in Safaricom to South Africa’s Vodacom Group Limited, warning the deal could be undervalued.

They further warn that the transaction will give the multinational a controlling 55 percent stake in what could limit the government’s influence in the telco’s strategic direction.

The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) said that basing the transaction price primarily on a 33.9 percent premium to the trading price of Safaricom’s shares in the 180 days before Vodacom filed its buyout disclosure relies on historical market data and liquidity conditions rather than Safaricom’s intrinsic value.

“There is a need to link the proposed premium to Safaricom’s expected future earnings, sector outlook, and relevant macroeconomic trends, rather than relying solely on historical trading metrics,” Professor Elizabeth Kalunda, the ICPAK chairperson said.

“This will enhance clarity of the valuation methodology and strengthen public trust in Kenya’s Capital Markets.”

Prof Kalunda said the market premium approach may not fully capture the company’s long-term growth prospects, future cash flow potential, or strategic importance to the State.

The submissions were made before the National Assembly’s joint committee on Finance and National Planning and Public Debt and Privatisation.

The deal, in which the Treasury is selling a 15 percent stake in Safaricom to Vodacom for Sh204.3 billion, needs to be approved by Parliament among other entities. If it is concluded, the government will retain a 20 percent interest in the telco.

The ICPAK’s concerns came even as regulators led by the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), and the Competition Authority of (CAK) welcomed the deal, telling lawmakers that the price was competitive and the transaction is unlikely to negatively affect the market.

“The preliminary position of the Authority (CA) is that the request for the proposed change in shareholding can be accomodated considering that: there is no local shareholding threshold requirement under policy, the transaction retains local equity participation through the government of Kenya, and the transaction has been approved by the Cabinet,” David Mugonyi, the CA’s Director General said.

ICPAK and the Technology Service Providers Association of Kenya, an industry association, meanwhile say the buyout price of Sh34 per share was set without a publicly disclosed methodology.

“Independent benchmarking or third-party validation is minimal. The proposed price of Sh34 per share has not been accompanied by a clear explanation of the valuation methodology, raising concerns over price discovery and accountability,” Prof Kalunda said.

“The proposed price of Sh34 per share has not been accompanied by a clear explanation of its methodology, raising concerns over price discovery and accountability.”

A business property in Nairobi, which is linked to Kiambu Governor Kimani Wamatangi, was demolished barely 24 hours after a court barred Kenya Railways from evicting its occupants or demolishing it, raising concerns over alleged defiance of judicial authority.

The demolition of the property, which is located near Nyayo National Stadium, proceeded despite court orders preserving the property pending resolution of the dispute. This escalation intensifies a legal battle over land rights, tenancy protections, and adherence to the rule of law.

The dispute involves Superclean Shine Enterprises Limited against Kenya Railways Corporation and the Attorney-General.

The company operates on Plot No. 209/1618 along Douglas Wakiihuri Road, a prime location near Nairobi’s sports and transport hub.

Court documents reveal that the firm sought legal intervention in December 2025 after railway officials allegedly issued verbal eviction threats without written notice.

The company claims these threats culminated in demolition plans scheduled for December 22, prompting urgent court action. It says that more than 600 police officers had been deployed at the scene.

On January 13, 2026, a magistrate’s court in Milimani issued orders restraining Kenya Railways, its agents, or any affiliated parties from evicting, dispossessing, or interfering with the property. The court also prohibited the intended demolition until the dispute was heard.

Despite the injunction, bulldozers demolished the structures the following day, sparking accusations of contempt of court.

Superclean Shine asserts it has occupied the land for over 20 years under a valid lease issued by Kenya Railways. The firm provided bank deposit slips from September, November, and December 2025 as evidence of consistent rent payments, supporting its claim of lawful tenancy.

‘The respondents’ actions are deliberately designed to bypass due process and undermine this case, despite clear court orders requiring them to file responses within ten days-a deadline that has since lapsed,’ said Faith Wambui, the company’s director.

The company argues that under the Land Act, eviction requires due process, including written notice and court-sanctioned procedures-none of which were allegedly followed before the demolition.

In affidavits, the firm’s management detailed losses including business disruption, property destruction, and harm to hundreds of employees’ livelihoods.

‘Kenya Railways’ actions flagrantly violate our constitutional rights to property and fair administrative action under Articles 40 and 47, as well as Land Act provisions,’ Ms Wambui stated.

While the property’s reported ties to Governor Wamatangi have drawn public attention, court filings focus solely on tenancy rights, with no allegations of wrongdoing against him.

Kenya Railways has not publicly explained why it proceeded with the demolition despite the court order. The Attorney General, named in the suit as the state’s legal representative, has yet to respond.

Superclean Shine is now seeking contempt charges against those responsible and further protective orders. The firm wants the court to uphold the lease’s validity and mandate lawful eviction procedures.

The demolition has transformed the case from a tenancy dispute into a potential constitutional clash.

This case mirrors other conflicts between Kenya Railways and long-term tenants in Nairobi and beyond, often tied to redevelopment plans and railway corridor reclamation.

In the first part of this reflection, I explored why African founders often struggle not because they lack intelligence, effort, or ambition, but because they are building inside environments shaped by instability, friction, and unspoken rules.

I argued that strategy alone is insufficient in such contexts, and that founders need a way of organising how they navigate pressure, people, meaning, and decision-making.

This second part turns inward.

Because long before companies collapse or succeed, founders experience alignment or fracture within themselves. It is this internal alignment, more than any external factor, that determines whether a founder sustains momentum or quietly burns out.

Over time, I stopped seeing the founder journey as a sequence of stages. In African contexts, founders rarely graduate from one phase to another. Instead, they cycle through recurring problem zones, arcs of tension that resurface as businesses evolve. These arcs are not theoretical. They are lived.

The first arc is external chaos. This is where many founders begin and often return. It shows up as unpaid bills, regulatory unpredictability, informal gatekeeping, political interference, and contracts that reward compliance slowly and punish it quickly.

Founders stuck here often believe they have a strategy problem, when in reality they are navigating institutional friction. This arc exerts pressure primarily on the strategic and social states. It forces difficult trade-offs, tests trust, and tempts short-term survival decisions that undermine long-term value.

Closely following is the arc of internal turmoil. This is quieter, but more corrosive.

It emerges when founders begin to wear identities that help them survive, the tireless hustler, the confident leader, the unbreakable provider, while privately feeling fragmented.

Ambition borrowed from peers, family, or society replaces personal conviction. Success becomes validation rather than contribution.

Here, the mindset and spiritual states are under strain. Founders appear functional, even successful, but feel increasingly disconnected from why they started.

Then comes the arc most founders recognise only in hindsight, mental and emotional strain. This is where anxiety, burnout, and decision fatigue live.

Founders here are still performing, sometimes even excelling, but the cost is rising invisibly. Relationships thin out. Creativity dulls. Decisions become reactive.

Emotional suppression is mistaken for discipline. This arc primarily attacks the emotional state, but its effects bleed into leadership tone, culture, and timing.

Some founders, particularly those who survive early chaos, eventually encounter the arc of legacy tension. This does not arrive during crisis, but during transition. Growth introduces complexity. Success brings governance challenges.

Control becomes harder to maintain. Trust fractures surface. Founders fear winning almost as much as failing because success demands a different version of themselves. This arc presses hard on the strategic and social states, forcing a shift from survival instincts to stewardship, a shift many founders are not prepared for.

Finally, there is the arc of purpose and continuity. This is the least discussed and most misunderstood. Founders here ask quieter questions. Why continue? What does this mean beyond me? What am I building toward, not just building from? Without space to integrate meaning, achievement amplifies emptiness rather than fulfilment.

This arc confronts the spiritual and mindset states directly. Many founders feel lost here precisely because nothing is wrong on paper.

What matters is this. Founders often occupy multiple arcs at once.

A business can be scaling while the founder is emotionally depleted. A founder can be strategically correct while spiritually misaligned. A company can survive external chaos while quietly eroding internally.

This is where the five internal states, social, emotional, strategic, spiritual, and mindset, become not abstract concepts, but practical diagnostic tools.

The social state governs how founders relate to people, power, and proximity. Misreading this state leads to betrayal, isolation, or false security. The emotional state governs how pressure is processed.

When neglected, unprocessed emotion hijacks decision-making or leaks into leadership. The strategic state governs timing and trade-offs.

Without alignment, founders confuse motion with progress. The spiritual state governs meaning and integrity. When ignored, founders lose their internal compass even while succeeding externally.

The mindset state governs interpretation. Scarcity narratives and fixed identities quietly shape every choice upstream.

Most founder crises occur not because one of these states is broken, but because they are misaligned.

Strategy says exit. Emotion says endure. Social pressure says stay visible. Mindset says quitting equals failure. Spiritual discomfort whispers, but is overridden.

So nothing moves.

After years of navigating this tension, I began asking a different question when faced with dilemmas. Which internal state is in rebellion right now? The answer almost always revealed the real blockage, and with it, the path forward.

What I am describing is not a framework to adopt or a system to install. It is a conceptual model, a way of organising reality that helped me move when effort alone stopped working. It has been tested, refined, and corrected across more than two decades of building in African contexts.

African founders deserve models that reflect their realities. Global case studies offer context, but they rarely address the social cost of failure, the emotional tax of endurance, or the cultural weight founders carry. Worse still, our institutions rarely document failure honestly, even though it holds the richest lessons.

As we step into a new year, my invitation is simple. Do not only set goals for growth, scale, or capital. Set intentions for alignment.

When you face a decision, pause and ask, where does this tension sit, socially, emotionally, strategically, spiritually, or in mindset?

The way forward is often hiding there.

Leadership does not become less lonely by climbing higher. It becomes less lonely when you understand yourself more clearly. Sometimes survival turns back into progress not through pushing harder, but through listening more honestly to the part of you that has been asking to be heard.