When Henry Musasizi assumed office as Uganda’s Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in June, he inherited one of the country’s most influential portfolios at a pivotal moment for the economy.
Uganda is preparing for commercial oil production, pursuing an ambitious strategy to expand the economy tenfold over the next 15 years, and seeking to finance rapid industrialisation while containing rising fiscal pressures. At the same time, government faces growing demands to increase domestic revenue, improve spending efficiency and keep public debt sustainable.
Rather than signalling a departure from existing policy, Musasizi has moved quickly to define what success under his leadership will look like.
Within days of taking office, he outlined a five-point agenda that places execution, fiscal discipline and economic transformation at the centre of his tenure.
The priorities offer the clearest indication yet of how Uganda’s new Finance Minister intends to steer the ministry during one of the country’s most consequential economic transitions.
A ministry that has continuously reinvented itself
The Ministry of Finance has evolved significantly over the past four decades.
In the late 1980s and 1990s, it led Uganda’s post-conflict economic recovery through liberalisation, privatisation, trade reforms and exchange-rate liberalisation. Those reforms dismantled state controls and established the framework for private sector-led growth.
During the 2000s, attention shifted towards macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. Fiscal discipline, inflation control and domestic revenue mobilisation became central pillars of government policy under programmes such as the Poverty Eradication Action Plan.
The following decade saw the emergence of National Development Plans as the government’s principal planning framework. Investment increasingly focused on infrastructure, agro-industrialisation, tourism, manufacturing and mineral development, to move more Ugandans into the formal economy.
More recently, the ministry has accelerated reforms in public financial management through the expansion of the Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) and the rollout of Electronic Government Procurement (eGP), both intended to strengthen accountability, improve expenditure control and reduce opportunities for corruption.
Today, Uganda’s economic strategy is anchored in the Fourth National Development Plan and the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which seeks to expand the economy from about $50 billion in the 2023/24 financial year to $500b by 2040 through industrialisation, value addition, export growth and higher productivity.
It is this agenda that Musasizi now inherits.
Building on Kasaija’s legacy
On June 17, outgoing Finance Minister Matia Kasaija formally handed over the ministry after nearly 15 years in office.
During the ceremony, Kasaija credited the ministry’s technical staff for maintaining macroeconomic stability through multiple domestic and international shocks and urged the incoming political leadership to preserve that institutional continuity.
For Musasizi, however, continuity alone will not be enough.
His tenure will increasingly be judged by whether government can convert ambitious long-term strategies into measurable economic outcomes.
The five priorities
At his first top management meeting on June 25, Musasizi outlined five priorities that will shape his stewardship of the ministry.
The first is delivering the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy.
“We shall relentlessly execute the Tenfold Growth Strategy to turn Uganda into a $500 billion economy,” he told ministry officials, making economic transformation the defining objective of his tenure.
His second priority is strengthening fiscal discipline.
Rather than focusing solely on budget allocations, Musasizi says government spending must increasingly demonstrate measurable value through tighter expenditure controls, procurement reforms and stronger value-for-money audits.
The third pillar is accelerating domestic revenue mobilisation.
Government wants to increase Uganda’s tax-to-GDP ratio to at least 20 percent, reducing dependence on borrowing while creating additional fiscal space to finance infrastructure and public services.
His fourth priority centres on wealth creation.
Musasizi says public financing should increasingly support commercial agriculture, productive enterprises and programmes that enable more Ugandans to participate in the formal economy.
The fifth pillar reflects the country’s approaching transition into an oil-producing nation.
Uganda expects commercial petroleum production to begin in the coming years, creating new revenue opportunities but also exposing government to the fiscal risks experienced by many resource-dependent economies.
“Our goal is for Uganda to become an oil producer but never an oil-dependent economy,” Musasizi said, signalling that future petroleum revenues should primarily finance productive investments rather than recurrent expenditure.
The execution challenge
The agenda is ambitious, but many of its objectives mirror concerns already highlighted by Uganda’s development partners.
As Finance Minister, Musasizi also represents Uganda in engagements with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, institutions that remain central to the country’s financing and reform agenda.
The IMF says Uganda’s public debt remains sustainable and the country faces a moderate risk of debt distress. However, it has repeatedly warned that fiscal pressures are becoming more pronounced.
Responding to a Daily Monitor inquiry, IMF Resident Representative Dr Sébastien Walker said Uganda’s key vulnerabilities include domestic financing pressures and weaknesses in budget execution.
“Uganda’s debt is assessed as sustainable with a moderate risk of debt distress; it faces risks from domestic financing pressures and weaknesses in the budgetary process,” Walker said.
“Addressing these vulnerabilities requires mobilising more domestic revenue, rationalising expenditures while protecting vital investments and social spending, enforcing budgetary discipline, and improving cash flow controls.”
Those recommendations closely mirror Musasizi’s own priorities, suggesting broad agreement on what Uganda’s economic challenges are. The greater question is whether implementation can keep pace with policy ambition.
The World Bank, meanwhile, remains one of Uganda’s largest development financiers, supporting infrastructure, education, agriculture, health and institutional reforms. The Finance Minister plays a central role in mobilising concessional financing, overseeing project implementation and ensuring reforms tied to World Bank lending are delivered.
A defining period
Musasizi begins his tenure during one of the most important periods in Uganda’s economic history.
Commercial oil production is approaching. Public investment requirements remain substantial. Domestic revenue must increase significantly if government is to reduce reliance on borrowing. At the same time, investors are looking for stronger policy consistency and faster implementation of reforms.
His five priorities suggest that he intends to measure success less by announcing new policies than by improving execution of existing ones.
Whether Uganda ultimately reaches its long-term ambition of building a $500 billion economy will depend not only on the quality of those policies, but also on government’s ability to spend more efficiently, strengthen institutions, attract productive private investment and convert economic plans into sustained growth.
Those are the benchmarks against which Henry Musasizi’s tenure as Finance Minister is now likely to be judged.