Uganda has closed the Third National Development Plan (NDP III) after achieving 60 percent of its target against the planned 80 percent, a shortfall that government leaders attribute to the Covid-19 shocks, global economic disruptions, and weak discipline in plan implementation.
Presenting the closure of NDP III, the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, Ramathan Ggoobi, said implementation of the five-year plan began at the height of uncertainty, with President Museveni signing its foreword during a national lockdown.
‘NDP III was written and implemented in an environment of huge uncertainty. At the peak of Covid-19, about 40 percent of the National Budget was cut and reallocated to health and security to keep Ugandans alive,’ Ggoobi said.
He said the pandemic, coupled with global and regional conflicts, constrained revenue mobilisation and forced the government to divert resources away from development spending, affecting overall performance.
Despite the disruptions, Uganda closed NDP III with 60 percent of planned results on target, a performance Ggoobi said should be assessed in context but also questioned.
‘I don’t know why we target to implement less than the plan. Our target should always be 100 percent. If you can’t implement it, then don’t put it in the plan,’ he said, directing planners to revise future targets.
Weak programme ownership
The review exposed weak ownership of the plan across government, with several key programmes failing to attend the final review meeting despite invitations being extended to all 19 NDP programmes. During the session, Ggoobi noted the absence of major programmes including agro-industrialisation, tourism development, human capital development, integrated transport and manufacturing, leaving only the Development Plan Implementation (DPI), private sector development and regional development programmes represented.
Mr Ggoobi described the poor turnout as a symptom of a deeper problem.
‘The first major challenge we have is seriousness and discipline. We can write many documents, but if we don’t take serious things seriously, we shall not transform Uganda,’ he said.
Transition pains
NDP III marked Uganda’s shift from a sector-wide to a programme-based planning and budgeting approach, intended to reduce silos and focus government on common results. While the transition improved coordination, Mr Ggoobi said the government was over-ambitious in the design of NDP III, setting very many indicators and unrealistic targets.
‘We set very high targets and scope. If we achieve 80 percent, we are okay. Why put in place targets we can’t achieve?’ he said.
The experience, he said, informed key adjustments under the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), including scaling down indicators and tightening performance accountability.
Lessons from NDP III include the need for fewer and well-defined performance indicators, realistic targets, stronger coordination, monitoring and reporting systems, improved national statistics, and deeper involvement of local governments, described as ‘street-level bureaucrats’ closest to service delivery.
Representing the Speaker of Parliament, the Minister of Public Service, Wilson Muruli Mukasa told the review meeting that implementation of national development plans would come under tighter parliamentary scrutiny under NDP IV, with Parliament intensifying oversight of ministerial policy statements, post-budget monitoring and tracking of major projects to ensure public spending translates into tangible services.
Parliament is also considering reforms to its committee structure to align more closely with the programme-based planning and budgeting model adopted under NDP III and strengthened under NDP IV.
In its assessment, Parliament raised concern over Uganda’s continued reliance on borrowing to finance development, warning that the gap between national ambitions and domestic revenue mobilisation remains wide and unsustainable.
The Speaker’s representative cited procurement bottlenecks, weak absorptive capacity and persistent project delays as key factors undermining service delivery and eroding value for money.
NDP IV impact
Kintu Anthony Mwanje, the head of Secretariat for the Private Sector Development (PSD) and Development Plan Implementation (DPI) Programmes, warned that NDP IV will not deliver meaningful impact unless the Development Plan Implementation programme enforces coordination across government.
Mwanje said experience under NDP III showed that weak follow-through and fragmented implementation diluted results, with ministries, agencies and local governments often pursuing activities in isolation.
He said the DPI programme was designed to act as the ‘superintendent of the plan’, ensuring all actors move in the same strategic direction.
Without this central coordination, investments risk becoming disjointed, duplicative and ineffective.
‘If everyone implements in their own direction, we shall not achieve impact,’ Mwanje said.
He added that DPI’s role under NDP IV would be to hold programmes accountable, track delivery against agreed priorities and ensure that planning at national and sub-national levels feeds into a coherent development trajectory, rather than scattered interventions with limited results.
Mwanje said that unless DPI’s coordinating authority is respected and operationalized, NDP IV risks repeating past shortcomings where resources were spent but transformational outcomes remained elusive.
NDP IV targets tougher discipline
Parliament approved NDP IV in January, and it was signed into law by President Museveni in March. The government has since finalised Programmed Implementation Action Plans (PIAPs) to operationalise the new plan.
Under NDP IV, government targets include raising the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 14.5 percent to 18.3 percent, reducing external financing of the budget from 47.7 percent to 12.7 percent, improving the budget transparency index from 59 to 80, and increasing the share of NDP results on target to 100 percent, following guidance from the PSST.