Category: Sunday Standard

Botswana has spent decades worrying about how to create enough jobs for its young population. The country may soon have a different problem – not enough young people.

The shift is easy to miss because it is happening slowly, one family at a time. But the numbers point to a potentially profound change.

According to Statistics Botswana 2024 Vital Statistics Report, Botswana’s total fertility rate (TF) has fallen to 1.96 children per woman, below the widely used replacement-level benchmark of 2.1.

Statistics Botswana says the figure means that, if current fertility patterns remain unchanged, ‘a woman would be expected to have approximately two children during her reproductive lifetime.’ The agency says the TFR being below 2.1 suggests fertility is ‘close to, or slightly below, replacement level fertility.’

The finding places Botswana firmly within a broader demographic transition in which families are having fewer children than previous generations. The report recorded 40,525 births among 696,153 women of reproductive age in 2024. Fertility was highest among women aged 20 to 24, with an age-specific fertility rate of 95 births per 1,000 women, followed by women aged 25 to 29 at 92 per 1,000 and those aged 30 to 34 at 82 per 1,000.

This mean Botswana has crossed a demographic threshold that wealthier countries spent decades confronting, where each generation is no longer, on average, replacing itself. The consequences will not arrive next year. They will emerge over decades.

For a country of just over two million people, the implications could extend far beyond family policy. They could affect the size of the labour force, the tax base, pension systems, healthcare, immigration and ultimately the growth model on which Botswana’s post-diamond economy depends.

Botswana’s demographic transformation has been remarkable. The country’s fertility rate was above six children per woman in the early post independence period. The 2022 Population and Housing Census recorded a national TFR of 2.90, already less than half the level recorded in 1981. But the national average concealed a much more advanced transition in urban Botswana.

The 2022 Census found fertility of only 1,96 among women living in towns, while the rate was 2.79 in urban villages and 3.93 in rural areas.

In South East District, fertility was already just 1.93, the lowest among the country’s districts. In contrast, North West recorded 3.73.

That geographical divide may offer a glimpse of Botswana’s future. The country is not experiencing one fertility transition. It is experiencing several at once. Urban educated women are already having substantially fewer children than women in rural communities.

The 2022 Census found a clear relationship between education and fertility. Women with primary education had a TFR of 4.28, compared with 2.16 among women with tertiary education.

Botswana’s rail freight business generated stronger returns in the first quarter of 2026, with revenue growing faster than cargo volumes as a surge in transit traffic reshaped the mix of goods moving through the network.

According to a report compiled by Statistics Botswana, during the first quarter of 2026, Rail freight volumes increased 4.9 percent to 171,715 tonnes from 163,681 tonnes in the previous quarter, while revenue rose 7.5 percent to P42.9 million from P39.9 million.

The performance was driven largely by transit traffic, which more than doubled, rising 108.8 percent. Transit cargo nevertheless represented only 18.8 percent of total freight, behind exports at 31 percent, local traffic at 25.5 percent and imports at 24.7 percent.

The stronger revenue growth highlights the value of the traffic mix. Transit freight generated average revenue of P395 a tonne, considerably above local traffic at P275.72. Imports generated P29.37 a tonne, while exports brought in only P13.22.

That disparity gives Botswana’s rail network a potentially important commercial incentive to attract more transit cargo, even if such traffic remains smaller in volume terms.

The figures also show the limits of relying on traditional freight categories. Exports and imports together accounted for more than half of volumes, but produced substantially lower revenue per tonne than transit traffic.

For a railway operating in a regional market, the opportunity may therefore lie less in simply increasing tonnage and more in capturing cargo that can command higher yields. The first-quarter figures offer an early indication of that shift, although it remains to be seen whether the sharp increase in transit traffic can be sustained.

Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) could face greater pressure on electricity procurement costs as South Africa reforms its power market, potentially changing how electricity is priced and traded across the region.

South Africa’s Cabinet has approved for public comment a revised electricity pricing policy that seeks to make tariffs more cost-reflective and separate charges for generation, transmission, distribution and retail.

The reforms are intended to move South Africa towards a more competitive electricity market, with greater participation by independent generators and traders.

For Botswana, the changes matter because BPC remains exposed to South African electricity prices despite growing domestic generation.

BPC chief executive David Kgoboko recently told a government assurance committee that the corporation buys electricity from South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique and Zambia at prevailing industry rates, while domestic tariffs do not fully recover supply costs.

BPC’s 2024 integrated report showed power-import expenditure more than doubled to P3.676 billion from P1.641 billion, contributing to a post-tax loss of P1.842 billion.

Botswana has reduced its reliance on imports, with electricity imports falling 61.8 percent year-on-year to 220,305 MWh in the first quarter of 2026. Eskom nevertheless supplied 80.9 percent of those imports.

The reforms could eventually benefit Botswana if greater competition and investment increase regional electricity availability. But the transition could also introduce greater price volatility as South Africa moves towards a more market-based system.

The pressure comes as BPC remains reliant on government support. Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo said government provided about P2.5 billion to BPC during 2025/26 period.

South Africa has also approved an 8.76 percent increase for Eskom direct customers for 2026/27, while municipal tariffs will rise by 9.01 percent.

Botswana has emerged as one of Africa’s strongest performers in attracting greenfield foreign direct investment, ranking 11th globally in the latest fDi Intelligence Greenfield FDI Performance Index 2026, a Financial Times-owned source of foreign direct investment data and analysis.

The ranking measures greenfield FDI projects rather than traditional FDI flows. Greenfield investment occurs when a foreign company establishes a new operation such as a factory, mine, office, data centre or renewable-energy facility, rather than buying an existing company. That distinction matters for Botswana because greenfield projects can bring new productive capacity, technology and supply-chain opportunities into an economy.

The ranking places Botswana among five African economies in the global top 15, alongside Namibia, Rwanda, Morocco and Zambia. Namibia ranked second globally, Rwanda third, Morocco seventh and Zambia eighth. Botswana recorded an index score of 3.9, meaning its share of global greenfield foreign investment projects was almost four times larger than what would be expected from the size of its economy.

However, the index should not be interpreted as a measure of the absolute size of Botswana’s foreign investment. Rather, it measures whether the country attracts more greenfield projects than its economic size would normally imply. The index, published by fDi Intelligence in July, assessed 98 economies that attracted at least 10 greenfield FDI projects during 2025. An index score above 1 means a country attracted a larger share of global greenfield projects than its share of global GDP.

‘Africa had five countries in the global top 15 for their FDI project attraction, the highest of any region,’ fDi Intelligence said, highlighting the strong showing by Morocco, Zambia and Botswana in addition to Namibia and Rwanda.

The United Arab Emirates topped the ranking with a score of 19.21, followed by Namibia at 7.74, Rwanda at 6.99 and Costa Rica at 6.5. Botswana’s 3.9 score puts it well above the global benchmark of 1. For policymakers, the result offers a positive signal at a time when Botswana is seeking to diversify its economy beyond diamonds. The challenge will be converting investment interest into projects that generate sustained employment, exports, technology transfer and stronger domestic supply chains.

A score of 1.0 means a country’s share of global projects is broadly in line with its share of global GDP. A score above 1.0 indicates that the country is outperforming its economic weight in attracting greenfield projects, while a score below 1 indicates underperformance. The 2026 edition uses 2025 investment data from fDi Markets and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund. It is therefore best understood as a measure of a country’s relative investment-attraction performance, rather than a ranking of the countries receiving the largest absolute amounts of FDI.

What a difference a day and a week can make! A week ago, Township Rollers was seemingly staring down a deep black tunnel.

The Blue Train, as the team is often affectionately called, was falling apart. Not just players, big name players were leaving the team enmasse.

Heavily in debt, no sponsors on board, the future looked bleak. Fast forward to this week, a new sense of hope and energy is engulfing Rollers’ support base. For once, they can now see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Last week, the team unveiled two sponsors. On Tuesday, Rollers unveiled a P2 million, two seasons’ sponsorship from Bet267. Under the terms, the betting company will pay P1 million per season to place its name on the back of Popa’s replica.

Two days later, the team announced Hope Tee Energy as its main sponsor for the season. The deal will see the locally owned company pump P6 million into Rollers over the next three years at P2 million per season.

Hope Tee Energy and Bet267 arrival at the Gaborone based outfit signals a new path towards sustainability for Popa Popa. Instead of finding ‘so called investors,’ the team is now reaching out to cash or in-kind sponsors.

So far, the team has lured in sportswear company Diadora and retail company Options Botswana. There is also O3 as the team’s hydration partner. According to reliable sources, other sponsor(s) and or partner(s) will also be unveiled in the near future.

‘Our ambition is clear. We want a stronger Township Rollers. A professionally run Township Rollers. A competitive Township Rollers and a commercially sustainable Township Rollers,’ club chairman Thapelo ‘Fish’ Pabalinga says.

In his own words, the only way to achieve that is to bring in as many sponsors and partners as possible. And unlike in the past, this time around, Rollers is not chasing investors. Direct cash and in-kind sponsorships and partnerships are what Rollers is seeking.

‘Rollers has tried the single investor route in the past. The problem with that approach is that when the investor is no longer capable of running the team or not making monies, they dump it and leave it in debts.’

‘We are now more inclined to saying, let us look at institutional investors. With single investors, the risk is too high. So, we are better off with multiple investors at a time. Multiple investors in different long-term agreements play the same role as a single investor.’

‘The good thing with multiple investors is that you spread risk. When one investor or sponsor ends the relationship, you are still left with others to work with others to work and the team continues,’ he explains.

Rollers’ current multiple sponsors over single investor approach has been largely shaped by the bitter aftertaste related to past single investors. To put things into context, the immediate past investor approach left Rollers with more than a P7 million debt. This has been largely due to placing investors in control of every aspect of the team. In turn, the investor took debts in the name of the team which they failed to pay.

One such debt, which is haunting Rollers, is the P1.2 million in unpaid dues owed to former coach Abdelaziz Karkache. The debt is directly linked to the team’s recent past investor Tendai Sebata. The debt has led to a FIFA imposed transfer ban for Rollers. The team will now have to channel almost 50 percent of the recently earned sponsorship monies from Hope Tee and Bet267 towards paying the debt.

‘We have to pay before the new season commences. These monies could have gone a long way in assisting us prepare for the league. Unfortunately, whereas other teams are using their monies to build or strengthen to be more competitive, we find ourselves having to pay investor inherited debts. But it is what it is, we have to focus and get the team as ready as it can be for the coming season.’

With so many challenges to overcome, Pabalinga and committee will, more than ever before, have to rely on Rollers’ supporters’ backing. Whether it is showing gratitude to sponsors and partners, attending games, buying merchandise or helping in any way possible, supporters will have to be on board if the team is to rise again.

In return for the faith and the support, the club chairman is promising transparency and accountability. As a start, the team’s partnership with retailer Options to sell merchandise will ensure all monies from this are accounted for.

‘The cornerstone of how we run this team is on accountability and proper governance. Misusing sponsorship funds or any team funds will only lead to sponsors staying away from the team. I am happy that the current executive has also wholeheartedly bought into this. They understand Rollers’ monies cannot be used for anything unrelated to the team.’

While the current debts will continue to hinder the team’s progress, Pabalinga believes the future will be better. ‘There are so many things at Rollers that we need to get right. Obviously, the pressing issues are preparing the team for the season and paying the debts for the transfer ban to be lifted.’

‘Once we have overcome these, the focus will then move towards acquiring assets for the club. This includes acquiring our own mini stadium, a team bus and other assets. Some of these will take time to be acquired, but we will strive to achieve them.’

Recent protests against undocumented immigration in parts of South Africa have once again thrust immigration to the forefront of public debate. Concerns over jobs, crime, pressure on public services and the cost of undocumented migration have fuelled calls for tougher border controls and stricter enforcement of immigration laws. At the same time, businesses in sectors such as agriculture, construction, hospitality and domestic services continue to rely heavily on migrant labour. These competing realities have intensified the national conversation, often producing more emotion than evidence.

Amid the political rhetoric and public frustration, an important question remains: What does the evidence tell us about the economic impact of undocumented immigration? While every country has its own unique circumstances, decades of research from both developed and developing economies provide valuable insights into how migration affects employment, wages, public finances and economic growth. A growing body of international research paints a far more nuanced picture than the polarized debate often portrayed in the media.

Immigration is often one of the most contentious public policy issues, with debates frequently centred on whether migrants take jobs from local workers or become a burden on public resources. Evidence from developed economies, particularly the United States, shows that migrant workers-including many without legal status-make substantial contributions to economic growth. Although unauthorized immigrants account for only about 5% of the U.S. workforce, they generate roughly 3% of private-sector GDP and contribute billions of dollars annually in taxes, including payments into Social Security and Medicare systems from which they receive little or no benefit.

The research also finds that immigrants often fill jobs that local workers are reluctant to take, particularly in agriculture, construction, hospitality and other physically demanding occupations. Rather than replacing native workers, migrants frequently complement the domestic workforce, allowing businesses to expand and increasing overall economic productivity.

The picture is more complex in developing countries. In economies with high unemployment and a large supply of low-skilled labour, an influx of low-skilled migrants may place downward pressure on wages and increase competition for informal-sector jobs. These effects tend to be concentrated among vulnerable local workers rather than the labour market as a whole. South Africa presents a particularly challenging case. With persistently high unemployment-especially among young people and significant income inequality, concerns about labour market competition are understandable. At the same time, sectors such as agriculture, construction, hospitality and informal trade continue to depend heavily on migrant labour. This illustrates why the economic effects of migration cannot be reduced to simple slogans.

Another important finding is that many migrants work below their qualification levels because of legal or administrative barriers. Studies suggest that granting legal status to undocumented workers can significantly increase productivity, improve job matching, encourage business investment and raise economic output.

Some reports also question the effectiveness of some restrictive immigration policies. Costly border infrastructure, mandatory employment verification systems and extensive documentation requirements have often delivered limited economic benefits while imposing substantial administrative costs and encouraging informal employment.

Researchers emphasize that the long-term effects of migration differ from the short-term impacts often highlighted in public debates. While a sudden increase in labour supply may initially affect wages in some sectors, businesses typically respond by investing, expanding production and creating additional employment opportunities over time. As a result, the long-run impact on native employment and wages is generally found to be small in most developed economies.

Overall, the evidence suggests that labour migration is neither an unqualified economic burden nor an automatic economic benefit. Its impact depends on the structure of the host economy, the skills of migrants, labour market conditions and the policies adopted by governments. Well designed migration policies that balance economic needs with effective regulation can help countries maximize the benefits of migration while mitigating its potential costs, particularly for vulnerable groups in the labour market. Immigration is ultimately an economic issue as much as it is a political and humanitarian one. The challenge for policymakers is not simply whether to allow or prevent migration, but how to design policies that protect national interests while harnessing the economic contributions that migrants can make. Evidence-not emotion-should guide that conversation.

Ngamiland cattle farmers have welcomed government’s agreement with Namibia to allow beef from the region to transit through its territory into Angola, saying the long-awaited breakthrough could revive cattle farming and improve the fortunes of the Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) Maun abattoir.

The deal, announced by Minister of Lands and Agriculture Dr Edwin Dikoloti in Parliament last week, concludes years of negotiations between Botswana and Namibia and opens a new export corridor for beef produced under Botswana’s Commodity-Based Trade (CBT) programme.

Ngamiland Joint Farmers Association chairman Frank Mafela said the agreement would restore confidence among farmers who have long struggled with limited market access because of recurring Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks.

‘Given the ongoing challenges facing cattle farmers in the region, this development is bound to encourage more farmers to invest in farming knowing that market access has improved and that this will guarantee them cashflow,’ Mafela said.

For years, farmers in Ngamiland have argued that access to a transit route through Namibia would unlock the region’s livestock potential. While the association is yet to be briefed on the operational details, Mafela said farmers remain optimistic that government will safeguard the agreement while pursuing additional regional markets.

The breakthrough is expected to strengthen the BMC Maun abattoir, which has operated under difficult commercial conditions because FMD restrictions have limited access to premium export markets. The facility has relied heavily on financial support from BMC’s Lobatse abattoir, with improved market access expected to boost throughput and reduce dependence on cross-subsidisation.

Government believes the new corridor will support regional trade while helping cattle farmers in wildlife-rich Ngamiland secure better returns without compromising Botswana’s animal health standards.

The first lesson for many reception class pupils in Boteti West is not reading or counting – it is learning to use toilets never designed for children their age. This is atleast according to a question tabled in Parliament last week by area Member of Parliament – Sam Digwa.

In his response, the Minister of Local Government and Traditional Affairs Ketlhalefile Motshegwa revealed that only three of Boteti West’s 15 primary schools have purpose-built junior toilets, leaving reception class pupils in the remaining 12 schools sharing ablution facilities with older learners despite government policy requiring age-appropriate sanitation.

Digwa also questioned the ministry about the deteriorating state of school toilets and whether young children were being forced to use the same facilities as mainstream pupils.

Government admitted that only Motopi, Etsile and Mokoboxane have fully fledged junior toilets. The other schools continue to rely on facilities intended for older children, a situation the ministry described as a temporary measure caused by years of inadequate funding.

The irony is that government policy expressly states that reception learners should use dedicated junior toilets and should not share with older pupils. However, the ministry acknowledged that when the pre-primary programme was introduced, councils converted old kitchens and other existing structures into classrooms because funding was insufficient to build new facilities, leaving junior toilets out of the plans.

To address the problem, government has allocated P2.4 million for minor maintenance of school infrastructure in Boteti West. Repairs have been completed at several schools, including Baipidi, Moreomato, Khumaga, Etsile, Mmadikola, Xhumo and Motopi, while construction and rehabilitation work continues at others.

But the figures show the scale of the challenge. Eighty percent of primary schools in the constituency still lack dedicated junior toilets, forcing Botswana’s youngest learners to use facilities that government itself says are inappropriate.

For parents, the issue goes beyond infrastructure. It is about dignity, safety and whether children taking their first steps into education are being given an environment worthy of their age and potential.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has raised questions about Botswana’s ability to translate improvements in budget transparency into credible and reliable fiscal management. It warns that persistent gaps between approved budgets and actual outcomes are weakening public investment, increasing fiscal risks and potentially raising borrowing costs.

This comes at a time when Botswana is negotiating a multi-billion Pula loan from the continental bank. AfDB. Unlike traditional development loans where money is released upfront, the proposed funding adopts the AfDB’s results-based financing model, meaning Botswana would have to demonstrate measurable progress before portions of the loan are disbursed.

The query against Botswana’s budget credibility is contained in the AfDB’s country focus report, ‘Mobilising Botswana’s Development Financing at Scale in a Fragmented World.’ The Bank acknowledges that Botswana has relatively strong fiscal institutions but says weaknesses in forecasting, budget execution, cash management and administrative capacity continue to undermine the effectiveness of public finances.

The report asks: ‘Has Budget Transparency Translated into Credibility?’ Its answer points to a significant gap between transparency on paper and the actual reliability of government budgeting.

‘Despite relatively strong fiscal institutions, low budget credibility and administrative capacity challenges in compliance monitoring and enforcement undermine collection efficiency in Botswana,’ the AfDB says.

The bank notes that deviations between approved budgets and actual outcomes remain persistent. It attributes some of these deviations to the volatility of mineral revenues, Southern African Customs Union (SACU) transfers and difficulties in accurately forecasting revenue and planning expenditure.

The problem, according to the AfDB, is compounded by external shocks.

‘External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical crises can further widen these gaps, and disrupt fiscal discipline,’ the report warns.

The AfDB warns that weak budget credibility is not simply an accounting problem.

‘Weak budget credibility reduces the efficiency of public investment, raises fiscal risks, undermines investor confidence and increases borrowing costs,’ it says.

The bank recommends that Botswana strengthen its forecasting capacity, commitment controls, treasury operations and cash management systems.

‘These will be essential to enhance budget reliability, support fiscal sustainability, and mobilize capital more effectively,’ the AfDB says.

Despite its concerns, the AfDB recognises that Botswana has made progress in fiscal transparency and accountability.

The report says improvements in budget reporting, disclosure and public access to information have strengthened fiscal transparency.

Parliament and the Auditor General are identified as important institutions in overseeing the use of public resources, while internal audit systems have increasingly adopted risk-based approaches.

However, the bank says Botswana still has work to do in ensuring transparency across the entire budget cycle.

‘Challenges remain in ensuring full transparency across the budget cycle, including timely reporting and broader public participation,’ the report says.

The AfDB also warns that Botswana’s relatively strong oversight institutions do not automatically guarantee effective accountability.

‘While Botswana has relatively robust institutions, gaps remain in timely audits, follow-up on findings, and oversight of SOEs,’ the report says.

State-owned enterprises remain a particular area of concern because weak oversight can expose government to financial risks and undermine the effectiveness of public spending.

The bank calls for stronger transparency, improved digital reporting and greater public participation in the budget process.

It says resilient public financial management systems will be crucial for Botswana as the country attempts to absorb economic shocks while maintaining fiscal discipline.

The AfDB’s assessment goes beyond revenue collection and focuses on how effectively government converts approved budgets into actual development.

It says Botswana’s public financial management system has strengthened over time, particularly in fiscal planning, transparency and audit practices.

These improvements have supported macroeconomic stability and policy credibility. But significant institutional gaps remain.

‘Gaps persist in budget execution, cash management, procurement discipline, and project implementation,’ the report says.

The AfDB points to deviations between planned and actual spending, forecasting weaknesses and inadequate commitment controls as factors that can reduce efficiency.

Fragmented reporting systems and capacity constraints also affect coordination and oversight.

The bank identifies weaknesses in public investment management as a source of delays and cost overruns in infrastructure projects.

‘Weaknesses in public investment management (PIM) contribute to delays and cost overruns in infrastructure projects, limiting growth impact,’ it says.

The recommendation is for Botswana to strengthen digital integration, treasury systems and procurement practices while improving the preparation of public projects before they enter the budget.

The AfDB argues that Botswana does not necessarily have to borrow more to achieve better development outcomes.

Instead, the country could create additional fiscal space by improving the efficiency of existing public spending.

‘Improving efficiency would generate significant fiscal savings, expand fiscal space, and support growth without increasing debt,’ the report says.

Botswana’s population is on course to approach 3 million by 2038, with a rapidly expanding working-age population and accelerating urbanisation set to reshape the country’s economy while putting pressure on jobs, housing and infrastructure.

The population is projected to rise from 2.40 million people in 2023 to 2.95 million by 2038, an increase of about 558,000 people, according to the latest population projections from Statistics Botswana. The medium-variant scenario, which the report identifies as the country’s primary planning baseline, puts average annual population growth at 1.4% over the period.

The demographic expansion comes with a potentially valuable economic shift. The proportion of Botswana’s population aged 15 to 64 is projected to rise from 63.26% in 2023 to 67.59% in 2038. But the report makes clear that a larger workforce will not automatically translate into stronger economic growth.

‘This expansion enhances Botswana’s potential to harness the demographic dividend, provided that adequate investments are made in employment creation, skills development and productivity,’ the report says. That creates a high-stakes policy challenge for a country seeking to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on traditional sources of growth.

Statistics Botswana says the expanding working-age population creates an opportunity to increase productivity and economic competitiveness, but warns that without strategic investment, the larger labour force could face unemployment and underemployment. ‘Without strategic investment, the expanding labour force could face unemployment and underemployment, undermining economic gains,’ the report says.

The projections point to a country becoming significantly more urban over the next 12 years. The share of people living in urban areas is expected to increase from 70.4% in 2023 to 76% by 2038, with growth concentrated around Gaborone and fast-expanding centres including Mogoditshane, Kweneng, Kgatleng, Tlokweng, Palapye, Mahalapye, Serowe, Tonota, Tutume and Francistown.

That shift is likely to intensify demand for housing, transport, water, sanitation and other public services. The report says the 5.6-percentage-point increase in urbanisation will require ‘substantial investments’ in housing, transport infrastructure, water and sanitation, waste management, environmental protection, schools and health facilities.

The population growth will also be unevenly distributed.

Mogoditshane is projected to record the largest absolute increase, adding 57,762 people between 2023 and 2038. Gaborone is expected to add 44,393, while North West and Okavango are projected to gain 40,741 and 34,279 people respectively.

Okavango is projected to be the fastest-growing district, expanding by about 44% over the period. North West and Boteti are each projected to grow by about 33%, while Tonota, Tutume, Letlhakeng, Mabutsane, Goodhope and Mogoditshane are expected to record increases of between 28% and 32%.

The growth is reinforcing what the report calls Botswana’s ‘eastern and northern growth corridor’, stretching from Gaborone through Mogoditshane, Kweneng, Kgatleng, Mahalapye, Palapye, Serowe, Tonota, Tutume and Francistown. These areas are expected to absorb much of the country’s internal migration and natural population increase.

At the same time, Botswana is beginning to age. The share of people aged 65 and above is projected to increase from 5.48% in 2023 to 6.61% in 2038, while the median age is expected to rise from 26 to 29 years. The report says the shift will have implications for healthcare, pensions, social protection and long-term care.

Fertility is also expected to continue falling, with the total fertility rate declining from 2.86 births per woman in 2023 to 2.20 by 2038. Annual births are projected to fall from 55,850 to 49,415 over the same period, an 11.5% decline.

The report calls for job creation, stronger technical and tertiary education, greater emphasis on STEM, green technologies and digital skills, as well as policies supporting entrepreneurship and small businesses. ‘These shifts present both opportunities and challenges that require coordinated, evidence-based policy responses,’ Statistics Botswana says.

The agency cautions that the figures should be treated as planning tools rather than exact predictions and updated regularly as new data become available.