Botswana’s P400 Billion development ambition faces funding test

Africa could unlock more than $1.4 trillion annually through stronger tax collection, more efficient public spending and deeper financial markets, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), a message that resonates strongly with Botswana as it seeks funding for an ambitious development agenda.

The AfDB’s 2026 African Economic Outlook estimates the continent faces an annual financing gap of more than $1.3 trillion to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. However, it argues that reforms could mobilise as much as $1.43 trillion each year, including $469 billion from stronger revenue collection and $299 billion from improving the efficiency of public investment.

The report comes as Botswana prepares to implement NDP12, backed by an infrastructure pipeline estimated at nearly P400 billion between 2026 and 2030. Projects span energy, transport, water, logistics and digital connectivity, while the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme seeks to accelerate diversification beyond diamonds.

The challenge is that the investment drive is beginning from a weaker fiscal position. Government expects a budget deficit of P26.35 billion in 2026/27 after a projected P25.5 billion shortfall in the previous financial year.

Public debt is also rising. Government debt, including guarantees, stood at about P90 billion, or 33 percent of GDP, in December 2025. The Ministry of Finance projects debt will reach 44.7 percent of GDP by the end of 2026/27, prompting Parliament to approve an increase in the statutory debt ceiling from 40 percent to 60 percent of GDP.

The AfDB also highlighted institutional investors as a major untapped source of development capital. Botswana’s pension funds held P170.8 billion in assets in January 2026, with more than half invested offshore. New regulations aimed at reducing offshore allocations are expected to channel more long-term capital into the domestic economy.

Post-office, Tsogwane rediscovers virtue in respectful words

As Vice President, Slumber Tsogwane didn’t think there was anything wrong with President Mokgweetsi Masisi publicly insulting other people. A Botswana-flag lapel pin adorning his suit jacket, he once took to the floor of parliament to justify why his principal could describe the antics of De Beers’ negotiators with an explosive onomatopoeia that mimics the repetitive sound of a heavily-laden tractor flatulently wiggling its way up a particularly steep, potholed incline. Digitally reincarnated as an (uncharacteristically) easy-going social-media star with 185 000 Facebook followers, a cumulative total of over three million views, two online pet names (‘Chipi’ and ‘Sdala’) as well as a packed social-butterfly calendar, the former VP has dramatically readjusted his views on public use of insulting language.

In celebrating that viewership milestone, Tsogwane posted the following statement to his Facebook page: ‘I extend my sincere gratitude to each of you for engaging with me in a manner that is respectful, thoughtful, and meaningful. It is through such engagement that dialogue becomes impactful and progress becomes possible. Let us continue to be mindful of the words we choose, ensuring they build rather than break, unite rather than divide. When used responsibly, this platform is not just a space for expression, but a powerful tool for connection, growth, and shared purpose. Re Batswana.’ The Setswana sign-off is followed by a single Botswana-flag emoji.

While he has been consistent in his use of Botswana-flag iconography, Tsogwane has been inconsistent with regard to application of public decorum standards. Some four years ago, the Leader of the Opposition, Dumelang Saleshando, implicitly advocated for respectful, thoughtful, and meaningful engagement through a thematic parliamentary question. The question was themed ‘Use of Inappropriate or Uncouth Language by the President and Uttering of False Statements.’ Over an extended period of time and in dramatic departure from presidential norm, Masisi had said a mouthful, some of it blatantly classist condescension.

In condemning widespread tendency to beg, the former president hypothesised the scenario of an elderly person begging for fencing wire at a kgotla meeting: Masisi actual words were ‘Le mogolo wa maloba o tla a bo a tsena ko kgotleng a re ‘nywee tautona ke batla terata.’ [Even an elderly person can say ‘I want a wire fence roll.’] ‘Nywee-nywee’ is an ethno-cultural buffer term that combines hyperbole and onomatopoeia and is used to mock.

Referencing a childhood in which he had set traps for birds, Masisi said he did the same thing with De Beers during the diamond sales agreement negotiators and managed to ensnare its team. The Setswana he used was ‘ba kile ba a re peperepepere.’ The statement doesn’t yield to a sensible literal translation but substantively means that De Beers’ negotiators unsuccessfully tried all sorts of trickery. ‘Peperepepere’ imitates the sound of farting and, in Setswana, can be used figuratively to describe the act of someone engaging in elaborate but ultimately unsuccessful verbal or non-verbal effort.

Addressing a Botswana Democratic Party political rally during the Covid period, Masisi said that after members of the opposition (baganetsi) got the Covid vaccine, their buttocks swelled up – ‘ba tika lerago.’ This expression is typically used on the poor, mostly by the well-off. Masisi’s ba-tika-lerago remark didn’t separate the young from the old, leaders from supporters or those who criticised him from those who never did. On the basis of the latter, Francistown South MP, Wynter Mmolotsi would state, in parliament, that ‘bagolo ba a ngongorega gore tautona ga a ka ke a ba raya a re ba tika lerago.’ He meant that elderly people in the opposition were complaining about what the then president had said about them.

Masisi tendency to casually insult people in public got as extreme as to attract scholarly attention from the University of Botswana. Last year, Southern Journal for Contemporary History published an academic paper by Christian John Makgala, Boga Thura Manatsha and Batlang Seabo that pairs Masisi with Khama. Titled ‘Shooting from the Hip: Critical Discourse Analysis of Setswana Language Spoken by ‘Deculturalised’ Presidents Ian Khama and Mokgweetsi Masisi, Botswana’, the paper argues that public use of Setswana language by both former presidents ‘has contravened the ethos of botho (civility), thereby dividing public opinion.’

In response to Saleshando’s question, Tsogwane (as the Leader of the House) said that the Masisi had only used figures of speech (‘dipapisapuo, manatetshapuo’ – metaphors, euphemisms) through which ordinary language is manipulated to create a literary effect. He did indeed use the term ‘euphemism’ which is used when one wants to say something in an understated manner, often to avoid unpleasant or embarrassing topics. His broad-brush response lumped the offensive remarks together and he defended their use by saying that they had been ‘taken out of context.’

When challenged on the appropriateness of the specific remarks Masisi had used, the future Chipi either mischaracterised the context, equivocated, engaged in preposterous semantic gymnastics or took cheap, out-of-context shots at MPs. He falsely asserted that Masisi was referring to opposition politicians who didn’t want to be vaccinated when he (Masisi) had not actually made such distinction. When Mmolotsi challenged Tsogwane on peperepepere, he sought to weasel out by detracting to snide remarks about how the ruling Botswana Democratic Party helped the now ‘pompous’ Mmolotsi become an MP: ‘Yo go tweng Mmolotsi yo re mo thusitseng ka maemo a e leng gore gompieno a a mmelahatsa.’ The context was not very clear but Mmolotsi first came to parliament as a BDP member and later defected to the opposition with his seat.

In fairness to him, the ordinarily mild-mannered Tsogwane had been publicly pressured into this unenviable position. Earlier in his term as vice president, a systematic, if stealth campaign that was mostly executed through mainstream and social media, was launched to force him to ‘defend’ Masisi. Where it would have been easier to defend policies, he ended up defending inappropriate conduct by his principal. While Tsogwane now sees virtue in respectful words, he has never recanted his statement about the phantom aestheticism of offensive words, especially those used by someone – like a state president, who is at the nerve centre of public life and should model appropriate conduct. On such basis, future generations will learn, from the Hansard of the Botswana Parliament, that a former vice president once declared that ‘go tika lerago’, ‘nywee-nywee’, ‘peperepepere’ are perfect examples of aesthetically-enhanced Setswana. That is part of Tsogwane’s legacy as a political leader.

BBS Bank shareholders to decide on BSE main board listing

BBS Bank shareholders will next month decide whether to back a proposal that could pave the way for the lender’s migration to the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) Main Board and a capital raising programme aimed at supporting its growth ambitions as a commercial bank.

The proposals are among key resolutions scheduled for voting at the bank’s annual general meeting on June 25, where directors will seek authority to apply for a Main Board listing and undertake a rights issue and issue of shares for cash.

BBS Bank has traded on the BSE’s Serala Over-the-Counter Board since September 2018, following its demutualisation from Botswana Building Society. The lender says the OTC platform was intended as a stepping stone towards a full stock exchange listing, giving the institution time to gain experience in a regulated securities market while preparing for a future Main Board debut.

Under BSE rules, companies may remain on the Serala OTC Board for up to five years before either migrating to the Main Board or de-registering. While that period has already lapsed, BBS Bank has secured an extension allowing it to remain on the platform until December 2026.

The board argues that a Main Board listing would improve the bank’s visibility, credibility and access to a wider pool of investors, while aligning it with more established players in Botswana’s banking sector.

In anticipation of the proposed migration, directors are also seeking shareholder approval for a capital raise through a rights issue and an issue of shares for cash. The funds would be used to strengthen the bank’s financial position and support its strategic transformation programme.

Shareholders will also be asked to approve the removal of certain protective provisions under the Building Societies Act, a move the board says would broaden the bank’s potential investor base and improve the prospects of a successful capital raising exercise.

Court ruling revives hopes for Mupane miners’ payouts

Hundreds of former Mupane Gold Mine workers moved a step closer to recovering unpaid salaries and benefits after the Court of Appeal cleared the way for the sale of the mine’s assets, overturning a High Court ruling that had temporarily halted the transaction.

The Botswana Mine Workers Union (BMWU) welcomed the decision, saying it restores momentum to a process that could unlock payments to workers and other creditors following the mine’s closure and subsequent liquidation.

BMWU president Joseph Tsimako said the ruling was a significant breakthrough for more than 500 former employees, including workers retained during the mine’s care-and-maintenance phase after operations were suspended in 2024.

‘This is a positive development because the mine has been under care and maintenance for a long time, and the prospective buyer had already indicated a willingness to settle obligations owed to creditors and former miners,’ Tsimako said.

The proposed sale would see Nova Africa Joint Venture acquire the mine’s assets for P21.5 million. According to the union, the transaction would allow the liquidator to continue efforts to conclude the sale process and begin addressing outstanding claims.

Tsimako said the union initially pushed for liquidation after workers went for months without pay while the mine remained non-operational. He argued that the legal dispute that followed only prolonged uncertainty for employees already facing severe financial hardship.

Many former workers are still servicing loans and supporting families despite having gone without salaries for extended periods, he said.

The dispute arose after the High Court granted an interim interdict blocking the sale following legal action involving liquidator Kopanang Thekiso and Nova Africa Resources, trading as Aone Commodities DMCC Joint Venture.

Creditors are collectively owed more than P345 million, including approximately P49 million owed to workers represented by BMWU.

The union said it will now engage both the liquidator and the prospective buyer to establish timelines for settling outstanding payments and bringing closure to one of Botswana’s most closely watched mining insolvencies.

Botswana slaps foreign travellers with steep new visa fees

Foreign travellers, investors and business people heading to Botswana will now dig deeper into their pockets after government introduced sweeping new visa charges in what is likely to spark debate over the country’s openness to tourism and investment.

In regulations signed recently, Minister of Labour and Home Affairs, Pius Mokgware has unveiled a new visa fee structure that dramatically increases the cost of entering Botswana for work, business, study and tourism.

The new Immigration (Visa) (Amendment) Regulations, 2026 replace Schedule 3 of the Immigration (Visa) Regulations and introduce charges ranging from P300 to as high as P3,000 depending on the category and duration of the visa.

Business travellers appear to have taken the hardest hit.

Under the new structure, a single-entry Business Visa valid for up to three months will now cost P1,000, while a multiple-entry business visa for up to one year will cost P2,000. Investors seeking long-term access to Botswana will also pay heavily, with a multiple-entry Investment Visa valid for up to five years now pegged at P3,000.

Tourists, long regarded as a critical pillar of Botswana’s economy, are also not spared. A single-entry Tourist Visa for up to one month will now cost P500, while a multiple-entry tourist visa for up to three months rises to P1,000.

Reports show that the new charges could trigger concern within the tourism industry which has repeatedly warned that high travel costs and restrictive immigration measures risk undermining Botswana’s competitiveness against regional rivals such as South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe.

Business operators are also expected to closely scrutinise the regulations amid ongoing government efforts to attract foreign direct investment and diversify the economy away from diamonds.

Employment visas have also been revised upward. A single-entry Employment Visa for up to three months will cost P300, while a multiple-entry version for the same duration rises to P500.

Dependents of foreign residents will pay P2,500 for a multiple-entry Visitor’s Visa valid for periods exceeding three months up to two years.

Students have not escaped the fee overhaul either. Undergraduate study visas will range from P300 to P500 depending on whether they are single or multiple entry, while graduate students will pay between P700 and P1,000.

The regulations also impose hefty charges on emergency and transit travel. Emergency visas will now cost P1,500, while tour operators and transporters seeking multiple-entry transit visas valid for up to three years will pay P2,500.

Diplomatic and Official visas remain exempt from charges.

Government has not publicly explained the rationale behind the new fees, but the move comes amid mounting pressure on public finances and growing calls for tighter immigration controls.

Critics are likely to question whether the new visa regime could discourage visitors and investors at a time when Botswana is battling sluggish economic growth, youth unemployment and declining mineral revenues.

Seretse plots fatal blow for Malambane

Lawyers representing Bakang Seretse have warned the state that they will launch an application for a permanent stay of execution at the High Court if the Regional Magistrate Court does not agree with them Thabo Malambane – Deputy Director in the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC) – has no legal authority to prosecute Seretse.

On June 11, Gaborone Regional Magistrate Mareledi Dipate will make a ruling on Seretse’s application for the charges levelled against himself and his co-accused to be dropped as Malambane was not lawfully authorized to draw up and sign the charge sheet or even to prosecute the matter.

In papers filed before court, attorneys Unoda Mack and Kabo Motswagole issued a stern warning to the DCEC and Attorney General that, should Dipate not rule in their favour, they will approach the High Court to have the charges quashed or permanently stayed.

‘We implore the state to abandon these charges. There is no reasonable cause to believe that the accused committed any of the offences,’ warned Motswagole and Mack. ‘Kindly treat this letter as a statutory notice that, should you not heed our request, we shall approach the High Court for relief upon lapse of the requisite notice period.’

RIGHT TO FAIR TRIAL

The lawyers also accused the DCEC of violating Seretse and his co-accused’s rights to a fair trial by reviving charges related to an investigation that was conducted some 10 years ago.

Investigations into Seretse, his business partners, Kgori Capital and their dealings with the National Petroleum Fund (NPF) commenced in 2016. At the time, the DCEC focused on a consultancy and advisory services contract that government had signed with Basis Point Capital in December 2015. In executing that contract, Basis Point Capital sub-contracted Kgori Capital to discharge some of its obligations.

In 2017, Seretse, Sharifa Noor, Alphonse Ndzinge, Kgori Capital and Kgori Holdings were charged with money laundering, stealing by agent, forgery of an official document and conspiracy to defraud government. Specifically, Seretse and his co-accused were accused of issuing a false official document instructing Kgori Capital to pay Kgori Holdings P31, 360 000.00 for delivery of a revenue collection and management system to the NPF. The state also alleged the group submitted a false P4 million maintenance claim to the Department of Energy and laundered money through a series of transactions involving suspected proceeds of crime.

An earlier statement from the DCEC claimed, ‘The funds were suspected to have been derived from defrauding government. These transactions were intended to conceal, disguise or transfer the illicit proceeds.’

All the charges were ultimately quashed by the Extension II Magistrate Court in December 2020, only to be reinstated by Malambane in March 2026. In papers filed before court, Seretse’s lawyers accused the DCEC of violating his right to be tried fairly and within a reasonable time.

‘Initiating the charges in 2026 was highly prejudicial as the accused are being subjected to double jeopardy. As such, they are entitled to relief,’ argued the lawyers.

PERMANENT STAY OF PROSECUTION

According to court documents, Basis Point Capital delivered the online fuel levy management system to the government in 2017 and was paid the P31,360,000.00. The defense notes that the system is currently operating to the satisfaction of officials at the Ministry of Energy and Minerals, adding that the millions the DCEC alleges were stolen constituted a legitimate, one-off payment for the infrastructure.

Furthermore, the government has already settled the P4 million maintenance fee claimed by Basis Point Capital in a March 2017 invoice. The Sunday Standard has seen a consent order signed before Justice B. Makhwe on August 3, 2023, confirming this payment.

Motswagole and Mack argue that any administrative questions regarding whether the procurement of the system was properly sanctioned should be directed at government officials, not Seretse and his co-accused. They also highlighted that the validity of the contract between the government and Basis Point Capital was previously reasserted by the Court of Appeal in Kgori Capital vs. The DPP and Another. Given these prior judicial findings, the lawyers argue the state lacks the baseline evidence required to move forward.

‘A person should never be prosecuted in the absence of minimal evidence upon which he might be convicted,’ Mack and Motswagole argued. ‘Accordingly, the charges against the accused persons should not be maintained.’

The defense reiterated that if the state does not abandon the case, the matter will be escalated to the High Court for a permanent stay of proceedings.

BERA to fuel stations: Fix the leaks or face the locks

Botswana’s energy regulator has delivered the kind of message fuel station operators would rather not receive: fix your act or close shop.

In what amounts to a regulatory version of ‘clean your room or move out,’ the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) says non-compliant filling stations will face shutdowns as it intensifies enforcement across the sector.

And this is not about crooked price boards or a missing mop.

Gift Bakumbi, BERA’s director of gas and petroleum, says inspectors are encountering infractions serious enough to make any risk manager spill their coffee.

‘We are dealing with numerous infractions, including leaking fuel pipes that threaten groundwater contamination, improper use of jerrycans, and failure to adhere to basic safety standards,’ Bakumbi said.

Translation: some operators appear to have mistaken petroleum retail for an improvisational hobby.

BERA has already shut down one filling station in Ramokgwebana, signalling that the regulator is done issuing polite warnings and hoping for self-reflection.

The numbers explain the frustration.

When BERA first began inspections, 84 out of 140 filling stations failed compliance checks. That is less ‘isolated incidents’ and more ‘sector-wide personality trait.’

For fuel retailers, the commercial implications are real. Compliance upgrades cost money. Infrastructure repairs are expensive. Temporary closures hurt revenue.

But so does setting the groundwater on fire.

BERA’s broader argument is straightforward: fuel retail is not a casual enterprise where duct tape and optimism qualify as safety systems.

Since officially beginning operations in September 2017, BERA has become one of Botswana’s youngest but most impactful regulatory bodies.

MMG Khoemacau’s Investment in Education and Skills Development to Drive Botswana’s Socioeconomic Transformation

As Botswana continues its journey towards economic transformation and sustainable development, MMG Khoemacau is taking a leading role in investing in local education and skills development. In response to the Government’s call for increased job creation and diversification from diamond dependency, MMG Khoemacau implemented a comprehensive program focused on internships, apprenticeships, and industry partnerships that empower Botswana’s graduates and communities.

The multibillion-pula Khoemacau Expansion Project, unveiled at the recent groundbreaking ceremony, will transform the nation’s mining landscape. With copper production in concentrate set to more than double from 60,000 tonnes to 130,000 tonnes per annum, the project is expected to generate approximately 5,500 jobs during construction and support a permanent workforce of over 4,000 once fully operational in 2028.

The MMG Khoemacau Graduate Program plays a vital role in strengthening local capacity to meet the demands of the expansion project. By equipping graduates with the skills and experience needed in the mining sector, the program not only ensures their employability but also helps build a future-ready workforce for Botswana. This initiative reflects MMG Khoemacau’s commitment to empowering local communities and contributing to the country’s long-term development, ensuring that the benefits of growth and progress are shared widely and sustainably. Currently, the company is completing its graduate recruitment process, with fifty new graduates expected to join the operation in phases through August. This comes in addition to graduates already on site, forming a growing and diverse cohort across the business.

The true measure of the program’s success will be the development of Botswana’s workforce. MMG Khoemacau continues to work closely with and support the University of Botswana (UB) and the Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST), through offering their students mandatory practical or on the job-training-attachment, for them to complete and qualify to graduate. Once they graduate, the company offers the eligible candidates an extensive graduate trainee program which provides individuals with exposure to the mining industry, giving them the requisite work experience and skills.

The Graduate Trainee Program focuses on: Exploration, Mine Engineering, and Geology and Technical skills. Graduates gain insights into the geological make-up of the Kalahari Copperbelt and profile of its orebody, exploration process through practical exposure, mine engineering and geo technology employed in this highly mechanized underground mining. They engage in daily work planning, underground mining processes, data capturing methods, safety standards, and the application of acquired technical skills in real operational environments. Some of these graduates’ form part of the process plant Metallurgy and Maintenance team, following the journey of copper ore from mining to being processed, packaged and shipped out of Botswana to international markets.

During the recent cohort’s quarterly presentations, the graduates focused on the scope of their role, skills acquired, and the application of adaptive, innovative approaches in executing their requisite tasks. They also openly discussed challenges encountered during their training and offered thoughtful recommendations, while actively seeking feedback to support continuous improvement. These presentations demonstrate the impact of MMG Khoemacau’s Graduate Program, highlighting inspirational success stories, testimonials and reaffirmed the organization’s strong commitment to talent development, promotion of safe sustainable mine practices and continuous learning.

MMG Khoemacau’s commitment to capacity building goes beyond standard mining and geotechnical expertise, with its graduate program focused on developing talent in a variety of fields including human resources, supply chain, external affairs, administration and logistics, as well as facilities and camp management. By offering internship opportunities across these disciplines, MMG Khoemacau ensures graduates gain industry-relevant skills that open doors to diverse career paths. This approach reflects the company’s dedication to nurturing local talent and supporting the overall growth of Botswana’s workforce, truly ensuring that no one is left behind.

These efforts support MMG Khoemacau’s vision of a national mining skills partnership that advances socio-economic development, aligns with Botswana’s economic transformation agenda, and brings the benefits of local mineral beneficiation to individuals, families, and communities across the country. As the MMG Khoemacau Expansion Project progresses, MMG’s ongoing investment in education and skills development stands as a testament to its commitment to Botswana’s long-term prosperity and the creation of a skilled workforce ready to drive the nation’s future growth.

Property market cools as economic pressures weigh on buyers

Botswana’s residential property market lost momentum in 2025, with falling prices highlighting a growing divide between resilient demand for affordable housing and weaker appetite for higher-end homes.

Data cited in the Bank of Botswana’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report shows the average price of residential properties sold fell 9.9 percent quarter-on-quarter to P888,055 in the third quarter of 2025, driven by declines in Greater Gaborone, Francistown and Selebi-Phikwe.

The figures suggest the housing market has entered another cooling cycle after a fragile post-pandemic recovery.

Botswana’s residential market weakened sharply in 2020 as economic disruption dented buyer confidence, with average prices falling from P802,379 in the first quarter to P720,000 by the fourth quarter. Conditions improved in 2021 and strengthened further in 2023, when prices recorded moderate gains, particularly in Gaborone.

That recovery, however, appears to have lost momentum.

Average residential sale prices slipped to P907,622 in the first quarter of 2025 before declining further later in the year.

The slowdown is not uniform across the market.

Affordable housing continues to show resilience, with steady demand for homes priced between P400,000 and P1 million, as well as rental units below P5,000 per month, according to property analysts Riberry Botswana.

By contrast, supply in the medium- and upper-end residential market increased, putting downward pressure on prices as buyers turned cautious.

The property slowdown mirrors broader economic weakness.

Botswana’s sluggish economy, pressure on household incomes and tighter financing conditions are weighing on demand. The Bank of Botswana says appetite for residential property loans has weakened because of affordability concerns, higher borrowing costs and the discontinuation of GEMVAS.

Diamond slump still choking Botswana economy

Despite repeated talk of economic recovery and transformation, Botswana remains firmly trapped in the grip of the diamond downturn.

The Bank of Botswana says weak global demand for diamonds, shifting consumer preferences and slow progress in economic diversification continue to weigh heavily on growth, exposing the country’s enduring dependence on its most important export.

In its April Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said overall economic performance remains weak, constrained by subdued global conditions, structural challenges in the diamond sector and sluggish transformation efforts.

Botswana’s economy contracted by 0.7 percent in 2025, following a 2.8 percent contraction in 2024, underscoring how the economy has struggled to regain momentum even as parts of the non-mining sector continue to expand. Mining GDP fell 14 percent last year, while diamond mining alone contracted 14.9 percent.

The central bank’s assessment offers a sobering reminder that Botswana’s diamond problem is no longer merely cyclical.

Global rough diamond prices fell 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 as weak demand, excess inventories and persistent uncertainty continued to pressure the market. The report also flagged the growing threat from lab-grown diamonds, which now account for an estimated 20 to 25 percent of market share, particularly in lower-value segments.

The fallout is already showing in public finances.

Lower mineral revenues have forced the government to widen its budget deficit projections, while the central bank warns that continued diamond weakness could deepen fiscal pressures, strain foreign exchange reserves and complicate recovery efforts.

For all the rhetoric around diversification, the Bank’s message is unmistakable: Botswana remains dangerously exposed to a diamond industry undergoing structural change and time is running out to build a credible alternative.