Diamond wealth fails to narrow Botswana’s inequality

Botswana’s diamond wealth transformed the country into an upper-middle-income economy, but the benefits have not been widely shared, with poverty, inequality and unemployment remaining stubbornly high, the World Bank says.

In its first Botswana Economic Update, the lender said about 21.4 percent of the population lives below the international poverty line of US$3 a day, while 63.2 percent survive on less than US$8.30 a day, the benchmark for upper-middle-income countries.

Botswana made rapid progress in reducing poverty during the 2000s, with the national poverty rate falling from 30.6 percent in 2003 to 19.3 percent in 2009. Progress has since slowed, reaching 16.1 percent in 2016. Rural poverty remains significantly higher at 26.8 percent, compared with 10 percent in urban areas.

The World Bank also highlighted Botswana’s persistent inequality. With a Gini coefficient of 53.3, the country ranks among the world’s most unequal, behind only South Africa and Namibia among comparable economies.

Despite spending an average 8.1 percent of GDP on education between 2018 and 2023 more than double the average for upper-middle-income countries learning outcomes remain weak. A child expected to complete 8.4 years of schooling receives learning equivalent to just 5.3 years after adjusting for education quality.

Employment outcomes are equally concerning. Only 17 percent of graduates from technical and vocational institutions had secured jobs in the latest tracer study, while graduate unemployment stood at 18.5 percent in 2022.

Preliminary survey data places overall unemployment at 21 percent, with more than 40 percent of people aged 15 to 35 outside employment, education or training.

The World Bank warned that even with economic growth projected at 3.2 percent this year, about 513,000 people are expected to remain below the US$3-a-day poverty line, underscoring the need for more inclusive growth.

C-130 Files – The full Whistleblower Report

Neo-colonial donations are embedded in systems where donor nations outwardly present ‘aid’ while subtly extracting greater value through the terms of those gifts. Contemporary international relations often echo colonial-era dynamics, with recipient nations expected to acquiesce to the interests of donors. For donor nations, understanding the socio-economic status of the recipient nation is as vital to maintaining these colonial-era power dynamics, as selecting the instruments through which influence is exerted.

One pervasive tactic is disguising sales or leases as donations. Botswana, among other nations, has experienced such arrangements where political leaders are constrained by inequitable power dynamics. A recent example is the 2024 transaction involving the United States and Botswana-a case that underscores the problematic nature of quasi-donations and their implications for transparency, accountability, and national sovereignty.

Case Study: The Botswana C-130 Aircraft Acquisitions

Background

In 2024, the Government of Botswana entered into what was publicly described as a donation from the US Government: the provision of a C-130 military cargo aircraft. Despite appearances, the transaction functioned economically as a sale or lease, not a true donation. The arrangement required Botswana to pay an estimated US$20 million (P280 million), a significant portion of the pronounced US$30 million aircraft value, with another estimated US$10 million (P140 million) anticipated for heavy maintenance by 2027. The total expected expenditure by 2027 is over US$30 million (P420 million) for an aircraft purportedly acquired ‘at no cost to Botswana’.

Misdirection of the Public Discourse

According to Bame Piet of The Voice Publication, former President Masisi characterized the deal as an act of goodwill, stating, ‘Recently, the US Government offered us excess defence articles in the form of a C-130H aircraft, at no cost to Botswana… instead of selling to us used equipment like others, they opted to partner with us in preservation of global peace.’ This rhetoric however, obscured the true financial obligations incurred by the Botswana government, while echoing the falsehood that this was a donation.

Regulatory Evasion

A press release by the US Embassy in Gaborone titled ‘United States Grants $30-million C-130H ‘Hercules’ Cargo Aircraft to Botswana’ pronounced that, ‘The United States delivered a C-130H ‘Hercules’ cargo aircraft to Botswana on May 24, representing a $30 million (400 million Pula) contribution from the United States to enhance the Government of Botswana and the Botswana Defence Force (BDF)’s capability …’, never explicitly stating the actual purchase price. The US Government’s approach leverages Botswana’s predilection towards intergovernmental donations over commercial procurement. This tactic intentionally circumvents Botswana Public Procurement Regulations, while exploiting the inequitable power dynamics of the relationship, to the detriment of accountability and transparency.Ultimately, the processes for the subsequent public procurrent of products and services ancillary to this quasi donation, such as maintenance costs, purchase of spare parts, and procurement of ferry services, were sidelined for expediency.

Ongoing Patterns: The Offer of Additional Aircraft

The pattern has persisted as the US Government, following the 2024 deal, offered Botswana two more C-130 military aircraft under similar terms. Again, official channels refer to the aircraft as ‘valued at’ US$12 million (P170 million) each, avoiding mention of the actual costs to be borne by Botswana. Each aircraft is expected to require a payment of US$12 million (P170 million), plus additional maintenance expenses estimated at US$10 million (P140 million) per aircraft. This brings the estimated total to roughly US$22 million (P304 million) per aircraft, or US$44 million (P608 million) for both. This is before any required upgrades to the aged aircraft. The aircraft offered for donation are either decommissioned or about-to-be decommissioned US Government assets, often located in a decommissioned aircraft scrapyard referred to as the boneyard.

Ownership and National Interest

A hidden stipulation of these quasi donations is that the US retains ownership even after all payments, denying Botswana the right to freely sell or transfer the aircraft in the future. This indefinite leasing structure means that despite significant outlays, Botswana never achieves full ownership. Ironically, at a time when the US has withdrawn a wide range of humanitarian aid programs programs-such as PEPFAR- it is with the other hand offering to ‘donate’ its decommissioned military assets, calling into question donor priorities and the net impact on the recipient nation,

Broader Implications: Public Procurement and Dependency

These quasi donations are a sham, and constitute a fraudulent misrepresentation of the true nature of the transactions, and are unashamedly facilitated by the relevant authorities. Furthermore, the transactions constitute a drain on national resources, with Botswana effectively resuscitating decommissioned foreign assets for which it will never assume ownership. The lack of transparency and accountability evident in these quasi donations also undermines public procurement processes and confidence in public procurement, and betrays the trust vested in public administration.

Conclusion

These cases demonstrate how donations, when structured opaquely, can mask the true costs and perpetuate dependencies, eroding public accountability in recipient nations. The procurrent of products and services ancillary to all donations, such as maintenance costs, purchase of spare parts, and procurement of ferry services, should at all times comply with public procurement regulations. The Botswana example illustrates the urgent need for greater transparency and rigorous oversight in international aid, ensuring that national resources serve genuine public interests rather than facilitating disguised extractions under the guise of benevolence.

Access Bank profit falls as impairments bite

Access Bank Botswana posted lower earnings for the year ended December 2025 after higher loan impairments and funding costs offset strong growth in digital banking income and an expanding loan book.

The lender’s profit before tax declined 23 percent to P103.6 million from P134.6 million a year earlier, while after-tax profit fell 20 percent to P79.9 million. The weaker performance came despite a six percent rise in interest income and strong growth in non-interest revenue, underscoring the difficult operating environment facing Botswana’s banking sector.

Net interest income dropped 11 percent to P368.8 million as elevated funding costs squeezed margins in a market characterised by tight liquidity. At the same time, impairment charges more than doubled to P80.2 million, reflecting increasing stress on borrowers amid sluggish economic conditions.

The bank, however, continued to diversify its income streams. Non-interest income climbed 26 percent to P373.8 million, supported by increased digital banking activity, while trading income surged 117 percent on the back of higher transaction volumes. Fee and commission income also rose 12 percent.

Access Bank expanded lending during the year, with gross loans increasing to P6.75 billion from P5.95 billion, while customer deposits grew three percent to P7.48 billion. Total assets rose seven percent to P10.8 billion, signalling continued balance sheet growth despite the challenging environment.

Although its capital adequacy ratio declined to 18.3 percent from 21.7 percent, it remained comfortably above the regulatory minimum of 12.5 percent, leaving the bank well-capitalised for future expansion.

Management said it remains optimistic about Botswana’s medium-term prospects and plans to deepen digital banking through platforms such as Primus+, while continuing to support small businesses and improve operational efficiency. The bank expects digital innovation and disciplined funding management to underpin future growth.

Air Botswana sues pilot over cancelled Johannesburg flight

Air Botswana has filed a legal application against a former captain accused of failing to report for his final rostered flight before leaving the airline. His actions are said to have resulted in the cancellation of a Johannesburg service and leaving dozens of passengers stranded.

The state-owned airline is suing Captain Benedict Dumelang Gaborakanelwe for P249,355.39. It claims his actions on June 21 triggered passenger re-bookings, hotel accommodation costs and lost ticket revenue.

Court papers filed in the High Court suggest an employment relationship that had appeared to be ending on good terms before an abrupt fallout on what Air Botswana says was the pilot’s final day of service.

According to the summons, Gaborakanelwe resigned on May 11 and gave one month’s notice. His departure was initially scheduled for June 14. However, the airline says it later requested him to extend his notice period by a week because of crew shortages.

Air Botswana says the pilot agreed to remain until June 21 and continued working under the revised arrangement.

According to the airline, Gaborakanelwe flew four scheduled sectors on June 21, including flights between Gaborone and Johannesburg and between Gaborone and Francistown. The dispute centres on what happened next.

‘On the last day, the Defendant was lawfully rostered to operate the flight route to and from Johannesburg,’ the airline states in its particulars of claim. It alleges that he ‘neglected or refused’ to carry out the assignment despite it being a lawful instruction.

The airline claims it was left with no time to find another captain.

‘As a result of the Defendant’s refusal, the Plaintiff was unable, within the required operational window, to secure replacement crew for flights BOT207 and BOT208,’ the court papers state. ‘The Plaintiff was consequently compelled to cancel and/or re-protect the passengers booked on the said sectors.’

According to the claim, Air Botswana then arranged alternative travel for affected passengers on Airlink and South African Airways while also paying for hotel accommodation where required.

The airline says it suffered losses of P132,805.22 in passenger re-protection and accommodation costs. It claims a further P116,550.17 in lost ticket revenue. The total claim amounts to P249,355.39.

Air Botswana argues that the losses were ‘a direct and foreseeable consequence of the Defendant’s breach’.

The lawsuit also reveals concerns within the airline that Gaborakanelwe may already have moved on to another employer.

In instructions to its attorneys, Air Botswana said it had been informed that ‘Captain Gaborakanelwe is likely employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo and may shortly leave Botswana’. The airline said ‘prompt filing and service are therefore necessary’ to ensure the court papers reach him before he leaves the country.

The airline has been facing challenges in retaining experienced pilots. Gaborakanelwe had not filed a defence by the time of going to press. Air Botswana is asking the court to order the former captain to pay P249,355.39, together with interest and legal costs.

A Date with Destiny Beckons for Botswana’s Billie Jean King Cup Team

This year, 2026, marks thirty years since Botswana played her first match in the Billie Jean Jin King Cup (BJKC) team.

In this period, the country’s senior women tennis national team has never played in front of its own home support base. A week on from today, on Monday 13th July, that will finally come to pass.

Botswana will host then (10) other nations in their home ground, the National Tennis Center, in Gaborone. The eleven countries will fight for two spots on offer to get promoted to the BJKC Euro/Africa Group II.

For the local BJKC team, the upcoming tournament provides a moment to write their own history. Playing home, a familiar environment, and vociferous home crowd, they will be hoping to return to the BJKC Euro/Africa Group II after a 23-year absence.

As one would expect, the local girls are relishing the moment. ‘They are very excited about playing here at home. They understand this opportunity does not come very often in a player’s career. For the first time, they know they will experience how it feels to play national team matches of this magnitude here at home,’ Botswana Tennis Association (BTA) vice president technical Nonofo Othusitse says.

After missing out on promotion in Namibia last year, where they finished in third position, things are expected to be different this year. Home comforts and support is expected to propel them to gain promotion. It happened with their male counterparts last year in the Davis Cup, and it looks certain to be replicated.

While the official team is yet to be announced, it is very likely that the team will be made of Ekua Youri, Chelsea Chakanyuka, Leungo Monnayoo and Kelebogile Monnayoo. Other players in contention are 17-year-old Rethabile Lesire Moshaoa and 13-year-old Angel Chakanyuka, who are in the provisional team.

To gain promotion, this talented crop of athletes will have to battle it out against equally talented players from the other nations competing. These nations, which will compete against Botswana are Algeria, Burundi, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, Madagascar, Tunisia and Zimbabwe.

These nations will face off in a two-stage round-robin format to decide which among them gets promoted. In the first stage, the 11 participating nations will be divided into three pools. One pool will be made of three nations, while the other two pools will have four nations each.

The winners from the three pools will then proceed to the second phase of the round robin format. Here, they will face off and the top two teams will get promoted.

Buoyed by home ground support and inspired by their improving performances since their re-entry in the BJKC, Botswana will go into the tournament optimistic of promotion.

Last year in Namibia, Botswana went through the group stages unbeaten. Uganda, Ghana and Nigeria were all beaten 3 – 0 as Botswana marched to the 1st to 3rd playoffs.

The girls however did not win any of their final playoff games, ultimately settling for 3rd position behind Morocco and Kenya. Morocco, as winners gained promotion. But Botswana had gained valuable lessons and confidence.

Since the Namibia tournament, the local women have made significant progress in their individual playing careers. Those playing college tennis in the USA have been playing consistently and have also competed in professional tennis.

Youri was honored with an Athlete of the Year Award for the year 25/26 by Santa Barbara Athletic Round Table. It was a recognition of her impressive performances as she led her college to win Big West Conference Championships.

Elsewhere, Chelsea Chakanyuka was crowned the 2025-26 women tennis’ Newcomer of the Year by the Hampton University. Leungo Monnayoo on the other hand was recognised for All Great South-West Athletic Conference (GSAC) for 2026. She is a top doubles player for Lewis Clark University this year.

Add player coach Kelebogile Monnayoo and Rethabile Lesire Moshaoa to this trio, Botswana’s chances of promotion get even brighter.

‘We will obviously be among the teams to look out for at this tournament. On a good day, we could have beaten anyone in Namibia last year. So, I believe we have a big opportunity this year.’

‘Also, the fact that two teams can gain promotion, as opposed to only one team last year further improves our chances. In the absence of Morocco and South Africa, prospects of qualification have improved further,’ Othusitse says.

With just a week remaining before the tournament, preparations are in full swing. The last member of the provisional team, Leungo Monnayoo, has reportedly arrived in camp from the USA, where she is playing college tennis.

‘Our players have been very busy preparing for this tournament. As we speak, Youri is currently playing at the W15 Hillcrest in Durban, South Africa. This is part of her preparations. We expect her to be back in camp on the last Friday before the tournament the BJKC tournament resumes here.’

‘Chelsea on the other hand was competing in Mbombela recently also as part of her preparations. Angel and Moshaoa on the other hand were also competing in tournaments in Zambia recently. These tournaments act as part of the team preparations for the upcoming tournament.’

While almost the teams coming to Gaborone, save for Cameroon, were at the past tournament in Namibia, Botswana ladies will not lull themselves into believing they know them. Every match and every team will be treated as an unfamiliar opponent as teams are known to change their playing personnel regularly.

BetXplosion Brings National Chess Championships Back to Life

A palpable sense of excitement is engulfing the local chess landscape ahead of the 2026 National Chess Championship.

This past Thursday, the BCF revealed BetXplosion as its new partner for its crown event, the national championships. The partnership comes with a whooping P160 000 sponsorship package.

BetXplosion’s arrival, which was met with excitement, now breathes new life into a tournament which for a moment seemed on the brink of death. And the chess family is feeling that new lease of life.

Immediately following the partnership reveal, an announcement was made that FIDE Master Ignatius Njobvu and Woman Grandmaster Tuduetso Sabure will be back for this year’s tournament.

As this was announced, excitement went a notch up, more especially among young chess prodigies Thuto Mpene and Laone Moshoboro, who were among guests. Moshoboro in particular was a picture to behold as she excitedly scanned the room as if searching for Sabure within the conference room.

An opportunity to see, or even perhaps duel with these once invincible local stars was an opportunity the youngsters seemingly yearned for. And BetXplosion was making that a reality.

BetXplosion Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Peter Kgomotso said their involvement is part of a greater plan to invest in the youth. It also seeks to make chess a sport where talented players can earn a living.

‘Bet Xplosion want to take the lead. The company is showing what businesses can do for the communities that they live in. Invest in the people that make our product shine. Invest in the young lives, because if we don’t invest in the future of our country, I don’t think we’ll get any far,’ Kgomotso said.

The BetXplosion CEO said they intended to ease some of the federation’s financial burden and create opportunities for young players to compete at the highest level. He said chess must become a viable professional career where players could earn a living just as athletes in other sporting codes do.

Botswana Chess Federation president Jady Tatolo described the partnership as more than just financial support. It is a strategic partnership that will help the federation implement a lasting development plan.

Botswana National Sport Commission Sport Development Director Peaceful Seleka welcomed the partnership, saying government alone cannot fund the growth of sport and urging more companies to invest in national sporting associations.

He said the partnership between Bet Xplosion and the Botswana Chess Federation demonstrates the positive impact that can be achieved when the public and private sectors work together to develop sport and nurture future champions.

Seleka reiterated that BetXplosion’s investment in chess extended beyond competition. He described it as ‘an investment in the youth, education, talent development and the future of this country.’

Meanwhile, the National Chess Championships will take place at Livingstone Kolobeng College in Gaborone from the 17th to the 21st of July 2026. In a marked departure from the past years, there will be no preliminary rounds for the National Championships. Under the new format, all players will battle it out for the title over the three-days of the tournament.

Government missing out on P16bn mining revenue

The government has confirmed that it does not hold equity stakes in several mining operations that generated approximately P16 billion in revenue in 2025. This is despite despite having the option under mining legislation to acquire ownership interests when licenses are granted.

In response to a Sunday Standard inquiry, the Ministry of Minerals and Energy said government has no direct shareholding in Mowana Mine, Karowe Mine, Khoemacau’s Zone 5 Mine, Minergy’s Medie Mine and Motheo Mine.

The ministry said the mines generated revenues of about P16 billion last year.

‘In 2025 these operations grossed revenues in the region of BWP16 billion resulting in royalties to Government of roughly BWP700 million,’ the ministry said.

Under Botswana’s mining laws, government may acquire a working interest in mining projects at the licensing stage. The ministry said decisions on whether to take up that option are made on a case-by-case basis.

‘In the cases where Government does not exercise the option to acquire a stake, the decision is motivated by the desire to achieve the best possible outcomes for the country,’ the ministry said.

According to the ministry, factors considered include project viability, growth prospects, risk exposure and prevailing market conditions. The ministry said government continues to derive benefits from mining projects through royalties, taxes, employment creation and broader economic activity.

It also defended the current mining ownership framework. ‘Botswana’s mining ownership model has served the country well, delivering significant value through strategic partnerships and enabling the nation to benefit from its mineral resources,’ the ministry said.

The response comes as government pursues policies aimed at increasing the value retained from the country’s mineral resources through local beneficiation.

The ministry said Botswana currently exports copper, iron ore, diamonds and soda ash in raw or semi-processed form.

‘The Ministry estimates that the country would get more revenue by expanding the local beneficiation capacity from where it currently is,’ it said.

Among measures being pursued is a feasibility study for a copper processing plant.

‘The plant, when established will elevate Botswana from a producer of copper concentrate to producing a refined product,’ the ministry said.

Government said beneficiation requirements introduced through the Mines and Minerals (Amendment) Act of 2024 are also intended to increase value addition within Botswana.

The ministry said a recently developed Mineral Resource Development, Exploration and Value Chain Strategy will guide efforts to diversify the mining sector and expand downstream mineral processing over the next decade.

BHC report raises red flags over Boko’s flagship Bonno Project

A Botswana Housing Corporation (BHC) document has raised red flags over the financial sustainability and commercial viability of the Bonno Housing Programme’s flagship Kgale housing project.

A copy of the document titled ‘summary of recommendations investment committee documentation’ which was prepared by the Corporation’s Investment Committee exposes significant risks behind óne of President Duma Boko’s ambitious promises to deliver 100,000 houses.

The Bonno Housing Programme was unveiled with much fanfare shortly after the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) assumed power with Boko personally breaking ground at the Kgale project and presenting it as the cornerstone of the governments election pledge to tackle Botswana’s housing backlog.

However, internal BHC documents paint a far less optimistic picture.

The investment committee report which forms part of the annexures in a case brought before the High Court by expelled three BHC senior executives against the Corporation warns that although the Kgale Bulk Infrastructure Development is strategically aligned with government’s housing agenda, several fundamental issues remain unresolved before the project can be considered financially bankable.

At the centre of the concerns is the proposed private-sector financed Design Build Finance and Transfer (DBFT) model intended to deliver bulk infrastructure for approximately 3,000 housing units.

The Investment Committee found that while both shortlisted investors, RIC Development Botswana and the Bothakga-China Jiangsu International Joint Venture possess the technical capacity to undertake the project, the financial model underpinning the development presents substantial risks.

‘The primary concern arising from the submission is not the technical capability to execute the infrastructure works, but rather the long-term sustainability and viability of the proposed repayment structure,’ the report states.

Among the committee’s major concerns are the absence of confirmed home buyers, no pre-sales, no off-take agreements and uncertainty over whether BHC would generate sufficient revenue to service the proposed loans.

‘The report itself already raises major warning indicators: Repayment period too short, BHC capability to pay and No presales or No take-off agreements…’ the document says.

The document notes that RIC’s proposal would require BHC to repay approximately P7.93 million every month for 24 months, while the Bothakga proposal carries a monthly repayment obligation of P7.97 million over the same period.

Committee members described the repayment model as ‘extremely aggressive,’ particularly given that there is no demonstrated sales cash-flow model to support such commitments.

The report further warns that financing costs alone could significantly inflate the eventual selling prices of houses.

RIC’s proposal would see infrastructure financing costs rise from P149.3 million to a total repayment of P190.2 million, while the Bothakga proposal would increase from P145.4 million to P191.3 million after financing charges.

‘This creates exposure to the high risk of unaffordable end products,’ the report warns.

It adds that the paper submitted to the committee lacked key commercial analyses, including housing affordability modelling, market demand studies, projected selling prices, mortgage affordability testing and absorption rate analysis.

Committee members stressed that these omissions make it impossible to determine whether ordinary Batswana who are the intended beneficiaries of the Bonno Housing Programme would actually be able to purchase the houses.

The report also highlights governance concerns over how investors were selected.

It notes that during earlier deliberations, committee members questioned the transparency surrounding the identification of prospective investors and the composition of the evaluation team.

Although additional information was later provided, the committee observed that details of directors and shareholders were not initially included in the principal report.

Further concerns centre on government’s potential financial exposure.

The Bothakga-China Jiangsu Joint Venture requires a government guarantee to secure financing, while RIC Development Botswana requires collateral from BHC.

The committee warned that either arrangement could expose government to significant contingent liabilities at a time when Botswana faces mounting fiscal pressures.

‘These create significant contingent liabilities, fiscal exposure and possible Treasury implications,’ the report says.

Members also questioned whether the Ministry of Finance would approve such guarantees given the country’s current financial environment.

The committee further observed that RIC had yet to identify a confirmed lender, creating uncertainty over whether financing would materialise at all.

‘This is a major bankability weakness,’ the report says.

Despite the concerns, the Investment Committee recommended that RIC Development Botswana be appointed as the preferred investor but only for further negotiations aimed at producing a commercially viable, financially sustainable and bankable project with a more balanced allocation of risk. It further states that if negotiations with RIC fail to bring the desired results, talks with Botlhakga Jiangsu should be explored. The then Acting Chief Executive Officer Sekgele Ramohobo who has since stepped down approved the recommendation.

While government has portrayed the project as the beginning of a housing revolution, BHC’s own internal assessment suggests the scheme still faces significant financial, commercial and governance hurdles before a single house can be delivered on a sustainable basis.

Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony in Kgale View in 2025, Boko said it was with a deep sense of pride to launch the project which was a segment of a large and unfolding narrative of the 100 000 units promised.

He noted that: ‘Botswana is going to look spectacularly different within the next three years. I have a team of people I work with and we dare not fail…’

Speaking at the same event, the Minister of Water and Human Settlement, Onneetse Ramogapi said Bonno Target 3 000 was the first step towards delivering the promised 100 000 housing units.

Immediate comment from Botlhakga Burrow China Jiangsu and RIC Development Botswana was not available.

Institutional Polarization and Health-System Reform in Botswana

Political polarization has emerged as a major issue in the world of public health and health policy. Research has highlighted the role of political and ideological polarization in health policy, public trust, vaccine uptake, responses to the pandemic, and health outcomes at the population level (Fraser et al., 2022 ; Nayak et al., 2021 ; Oberlander, 2024 ). Much of this research has examined the effect of conflicts between citizens, political parties, and interest groups on the adoption and implementation of health policies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical need to comprehend the effects of political polarization on health systems and public health decision-making. These contributions have significantly advanced understanding of the relationship between politics and health. However, comparatively less attention has been given to how polarization may emerge within the institutional architecture responsible for designing, financing and implementing health policy itself. Health systems increasingly involve multiple organisations operating across different sectors of government. Ministries of Health, Ministries of Finance, local government authorities, procurement agencies, regulatory institutions, development partners and private-sector actors frequently share responsibility for achieving common health policy objectives. While such institutional diversity can strengthen health-system performance, it also creates new governance challenges that extend beyond political competition or ideological disagreement.

Health policy and systems research has consistently shown that effective health systems depend on more than adequate financing, infrastructure and human resources. They also depend on governance. Governance provides the institutional arrangements through which authority is exercised, decisions are made, resources are allocated and accountability is maintained. It determines how different institutions work together in pursuit of shared public good (Frenk, 1994; Travis et al; 202). Existing governance frameworks emphasise stewardship, coordination, accountability, transparency and institutional capacity as essential characteristics of well-functioning health systems (Siddiqi et al., 2009; Brinkerhoff and Bossert, 2014; WHO, 2007). These frameworks recognise that improving health outcomes depends not only on the performance of individual institutions but also on the quality of relationships between them.

Health policy and systems research also recognises that health is not produced exclusively within hospitals, clinics or consulting rooms. Nor is health-system performance determined solely by physicians, nurses or other clinical professionals. Modern health systems depend on the interaction of political institutions, public administration, financing systems, procurement agencies, local government, regulatory authorities, development partners and communities. Improving population health therefore requires governance arrangements that enable these institutions to work together towards shared public objectives rather than operate as isolated organisations (WHO, 2007; Frenk, 1994).

This broader systems perspective is increasingly reflected in contemporary scholarship, which argues that medicines governance, particularly during periods of fiscal stress, should be understood as a stewardships and governance challenge rather than simply a procurement or clinical problem ( Seleke and Nthomang, 2026).

Governance scholars have also examined institutional fragmentation, describing situations in which multiple organisations, rules and governance arrangements become increasingly dispersed and difficult to coordinate (Biermann et al., 2009). Although this literature has largely developed within environmental governance and international relations, its central insight-that fragmented institutional arrangements may weaken collective action-is highly relevant to contemporary health systems. Nevertheless, institutional fragmentation primarily describes the structural organisation of institutions. It pays comparatively less attention to how relationships among institutions evolve during periods of reform, particularly when organisations responsible for a common policy objective progressively diverge in their mandates, operational priorities and accountability arrangements.

Institutional Polarization

Institutional polarization refers to the progressive divergence of authority, accountability, mandates and decision-making among institutions responsible for a shared health policy objective. It occurs when organisations established to pursue common policy goals increasingly operate through parallel responsibilities, competing priorities and disconnected accountability arrangements, reducing institutional coherence and making policy implementation more difficult. Institutional polarization does not necessarily imply institutional conflict or institutional failure. Rather, it describes a governance condition in which relationships between institutions become progressively less integrated despite the continued functioning of individual organisations.

The concept builds upon, but is distinct from, institutional fragmentation. Fragmentation is primarily concerned with the existence and organisation of multiple institutions. Institutional polarization shifts attention towards the quality of relationships between those institutions. It asks whether authority remains coherent, whether accountability is clearly understood, whether financing arrangements reinforce coordination, whether procurement responsibilities are aligned, whether communication reflects a shared governance narrative and whether stewardship continues to integrate the system. In this way, institutional polarization complements existing governance frameworks by providing an additional analytical lens through which health-system reform may be examined.

Botswana provides an important opportunity to explore this proposition. Since 2024, the country has embarked on one of the most significant periods of health-sector reform since Independence. These reforms include the decentralisation of primary health care, restructuring of medicines governance, emergency institutional arrangements following the 2025 medicines crisis, and the introduction of innovative financing mechanisms intended to strengthen health-system resilience. Individually, each initiative seeks to improve health-system performance. Collectively, however, they also raise broader questions regarding institutional coherence, coordination and long-term stewardship. Rather than evaluating the performance of individual organisations, this paper examines whether the evolving institutional architecture continues to support coherent implementation of shared health policy objectives.

To illustrate the proposed concept, this commentary introduces six interrelated domains through which institutional polarization may be examined: authority, accountability, financing, procurement and logistics, strategic communication, and stewardship. Owing to the scope of a commentary, these domains are presented as a conceptual framework to guide future empirical analysis rather than examined exhaustively. The framework provides a structured lens through which institutional relationships may be analysed as Botswana’s health-sector reforms continue to evolve.

Institutional Polarization in Practice

Botswana’s recent health-sector reforms provide an important opportunity to illustrate the proposed framework. Since 2024, the country has undertaken significant institutional changes, including the transfer of primary health care to the Ministry of Local Government, emergency interventions following the 2025 medicines crisis, and the introduction of new financing arrangements intended to strengthen medicines security. These reforms were intended to strengthen health-system performance. They also created new institutional relationships that require careful coordination.

Viewed through the lens of institutional polarization, the central question is not whether these reforms were necessary. Reform is an essential part of health-system development. The more important question is whether evolving institutional arrangements continue to operate coherently towards shared policy objectives.

This commentary proposes six analytical domains through which institutional polarization may be examined: authority, accountability, financing, procurement and logistics, strategic communication, and stewardship. Together, these domains encourage attention to relationships between institutions rather than the performance of individual organisations alone. They ask whether mandates remain clear, whether accountability is understood, whether financing reinforces coordination, whether procurement responsibilities are aligned, whether communication presents a coherent governance narrative, and whether stewardship continues to integrate the health system during periods of reform.

This perspective has practical implications. Health-system reform should not be evaluated solely by the creation of new institutions or the announcement of new initiatives. It should also be assessed according to whether institutional relationships become more coherent over time. New governance arrangements should therefore be accompanied by clear reporting structures, transparent accountability mechanisms, regular public communication and well-defined institutional responsibilities. These principles strengthen trust, support implementation and enable continuous institutional learning.

Institutional polarization does not suggest institutional failure. Rather, it provides a complementary governance lens for understanding why implementation

challenges may persist despite the commitment of multiple institutions to the same public objective.

The concept therefore extends existing discussions of political polarization by drawing attention to the relationships within the institutional architecture of health systems. Botswana provides an important illustration of this governance challenge. More importantly, it demonstrates how health policy and systems research can move beyond describing reform towards developing concepts that help explain how reform succeeds, where it struggles, and how institutional coherence can ultimately be strengthened.

This commentary introduces institutional polarization as a complementary governance lens for understanding how institutional relationships shape health policy implementation during periods of reform. Rather than focusing on political or ideological divisions, it draws attention to the coherence of authority, accountability, financing, procurement and logistics, strategic communication, and stewardship across institutions pursuing shared health objectives.

Owing to the scope of a commentary, these analytical domains have been introduced rather than examined in detail. Subsequent papers will apply this framework to Botswana’s ongoing health-sector reforms, exploring each domain individually through the lenses of medicines governance, primary health-care decentralisation, emergency financing, institutional accountability and stewardship. Collectively, these studies will further refine the concept of institutional polarization and assess its usefulness as a governance framework for understanding health-system reform in Botswana and comparable health systems.

About the author

Dr Thabo Lucas Seleke is a Health Policy and Systems Research scholar whose work focuses on health systems governance, stewardship, implementation science and public sector reform. He holds a PhD in Health Policy and Systems Research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and an MSc in Global Health Policy and Management as a Fulbright Scholar in Boston, United States. He has also completed advanced training in cross-disciplinary qualitative health research at King’s College London. During his doctoral studies, he contributed to postgraduate teaching at LSHTM within the Faculty of Public Health and Policy. Dr Seleke previously served as a Global Health Fellow at the World Health Organization in the Department of Pandemic and Epidemic Diseases and currently serves as Deputy Chair of Botswana’s National Health Research Ethics Committee (NHREC) under the Ministry of Health.

The Forgotten Casualty of Paternity Deception: Who Speaks for the Child?

When a scandal strikes at the very heart of societal norms, the public reaction is rarely measured. Right now, our national discourse is caught in a fever. The revelations surrounding wrongful paternity have sparked a sycophantic frenzy of outrage, cultural defence, and unwavering rallying behind the stance of the elders.

The adults are shouting.

The comment sections are raging.

The social fabric is being torn apart by adults litigating the sins of adults.

However, in the midst of this deafening noise, a profound and sobering silence surrounds the most important question of all – What about the child?

In our rush to condemn the deception, to protect the pride of the wronged, and to uphold the dignity of tradition, we have completely bypassed the only truly innocent party in this entire tragic equation. If we are to follow this current wave of outrage to its logical conclusion, we must stop and ask ourselves what exactly it is we are demanding for the child. What should be done?

When the elders speak and the public roars in agreement, what is the implicit decree for the life that was brought into this world through no choice of their own?

Should the child be banished? Should they be thrown into a crocodile-infested river to wash away the sins of the parents? Should we revive ancient cruelties and brand a ‘Mark of Cain’ upon their forehead, so that society may easily identify and shun them for a transgression they did not commit?

These questions may sound absurd or intentionally provocative (yes, they are), but they are the necessary mirror we must hold up to our current societal frenzy. If we do not actively define a compassionate place for these children, we are passively condemning them to a lifetime of collateral damage.

What has the child done wrong?

Absolutely nothing. Yet, they are the ones who stand to lose the most:

their identity

their family structure

and their sense of belonging.

Does this child suddenly stop being a Motswana? Does a DNA test retroactively strip away the culture they were raised in, the language they speak, or the soil they were born on? Is this child no longer entitled to the rights, the dignity, and the protection of an indigenous Batswana?

A society’s moral compass is not calibrated by how loudly it can condemn deception, but by how fiercely it protects its most vulnerable.

Right now, we are failing that test. We are allowing the sins of the mother and the understandable agony of the supposed father to completely eclipse the humanity of the child. It is time to take in a deep collective breath and step back from the ledge of emotional outbursts sweeping our social media. The elders have a right to their stance on morality and honesty, and the public has a right to its shock. But a justice that creates a new victim ceases to be justice; it becomes tragedy.

We need to calm these raging waters. We must separate the actions of the adults from the intrinsic worth of the child. Until we can look past the scandal and see the bewildered face of a child who is wondering where they belong, our outrage is nothing more than destructive noise. The true test of our cultural strength is not in our capacity for collective anger, but in our capacity for collective grace.

We are a people with deep and lingering noble cultural roots.

We are human.

We are Batswana.

How the rest of the world sees us is as important as how we want to be perceived by the rest of the world.

A Reflection on the Proposal for Mandatory DNA Testing at Birth: A Question of Social Cohesion.

The recent proposal by the Ntlo ya Dikgosi to mandate DNA testing for all newborns touches upon a deep and undeniable anxiety within our society. The chiefs are giving voice to a genuine crisis of trust that is currently fracturing our communities. However, when evaluating any sweeping social policy, the duty of leadership is to look past the initial intent and rigorously ask the most critical question of governance: ‘Then what?’

If we implement universal, state-mandated biological policing at the moment of birth, we must be fully prepared for the aftermath. When we trace the trajectory of this policy, it becomes clear that it risks exacerbating the very social unravelling it seeks to cure.

The Reality of ‘Then What?’ and the Threat of dire consequences.

We must ground this discussion in the sobering reality of the prevailing social climate in the country. Botswana currently faces a devastating epidemic of Gender-Based Violence (GBV), with rates of violent assault and homicide against women standing among the highest on the continent. In this context, transforming the maternity ward (a place already fraught with immense physical and emotional vulnerability) into a theatre for potential domestic crisis is profoundly dangerous.

This is not a matter of advocating for infidelity or the dismissal of the deep betrayal that a man experiences in cases of paternity fraud. Deception within any matrimonial or partnership setting is destructive. However, the state must weigh the revelation of that deception against the immediate, physical safety of its citizens.

A sudden, unexpected DNA result delivered at birth will inevitably designate scapegoats – primarily women. In our current climate of high GBV, it is a statistical certainty that this policy will be a catalyst for severe, sometimes fatal, retaliatory violence, not only against the woman but also against an innocent child whose only crime is to be born in the country. We cannot institute a policy where the collateral damage is the physical safety of mothers and the abandonment of newborns.

Treating the Disease, Not the Symptom

The outcry that the Ntlo ya Dikgosi is responding to is real, but paternity fraud is a symptom, not the root cause of the disease. The disease is the unravelling of the family social unit at an epidemic proportion. By framing this crisis as a ‘whodunit,’ we reduce a complex breakdown of social, economic, and moral communication into a punitive biological witch hunt.

This approach inherently divides. It pits men and women against one another. It fosters an environment of perpetual suspicion rather than mutual responsibility. A cohesive society cannot be built on a foundation of mandated mistrust.

Fostering Unity Over Division

If our ultimate goal is to protect and build up the family unit, our resources and political will must be directed toward fostering unity and cohesion before the family shatters. A strong family unit is the foundation of every prosperous society, no matter which part of the world it is in.

Instead of investing vast national resources into retrospective genetic testing, we must invest in:

Preventive Social Infrastructure

Equipping couples with the tools for honest communication, conflict resolution, and family planning.

Addressing the Drivers of Family Breakdown

Tackling the underlying economic stresses, shifting cultural norms, and communication gaps that lead to infidelity and the dissolution of trust.

Strengthening GBV Interventions

Ensuring that our communities are safe environments for all individuals, allowing for conflicts to be resolved through mediated, non-violent means.

Reimagining the Kgotla as a Hub for Restorative Family Justice

Instead of utilizing traditional leadership structures for reactive policing, we should empower the Ntlo ya Dikgosi and local headmen with the resources to transform the Kgotla into a proactive space for mediation. By integrating modern social workers and professional counsellors into the customary court system, we can provide couples with confidential, structured conflict resolution that preserves the dignity of the family unit rather than publicly fracturing it.

?Institutionalizing Accessible Family and Pre-Marital Counselling Frameworks

Relationship support must shift from a private luxury to a pillar of public social infrastructure. The state, in partnership with civil society and religious institutions, should establish widely accessible, culturally resonant pre-marital and early-parenthood counselling programs. Normalizing these interventions helps couples navigate shifting cultural norms, financial stresses, and expectations around fidelity long before trust reaches a breaking point.

?Alleviating the Economic Pressures on Young Households

We must candidly acknowledge that severe economic strain and high unemployment are primary accelerators of domestic friction, infidelity, and family dissolution. Introducing state-backed socio-economic initiatives, such as targeted financial literacy programs, young-family housing subsidies, or parental support networks, can directly alleviate the ‘pressure cooker’ environment that so often destabilizes households and triggers domestic crises.

?Foundational Educational Reform on Gender Relations and Mutual Respect

To curb the terrifying rates of Gender-Based Violence that threaten any policy aftermath, we must play the long game. This means integrating robust social-emotional learning, conflict resolution, and ethics of mutual respect directly into the national school curriculum from an early age. True social cohesion is built by teaching the next generation of boys and girls how to communicate through vulnerability and respect, rather than resorting to suspicion or violence.

The role of leadership is to heal the fractures within our communities, not to introduce a wedge that splits them further apart. We must honour the chiefs’ call to protect the family, but we must do so by building bridges of social cohesion, rather than setting traps that will inevitably catch the most vulnerable among our people.