By 2038, Botswana’s population is projected to reach nearly 3 million people while the country becomes more urban, older and increasingly concentrated around its major economic centres.
The country is on course to have a population of 2,954,519 people by 2038, according to new projections by Statistics Botswana. This marks a substantial increase from the 2,359,609 people recorded in the 2022 Population and Housing Census.
The projections, contained in Botswana Population Projections 2022-2038, put the country’s average annual population growth at 1.4% under the medium variant, which Statistics Botswana identifies as the most likely scenario and the official baseline for planning.
The projected increase will, however, come alongside a profound demographic shift. Botswana will not simply have more people; its population will also be older and increasingly urban.
By 2038, the proportion of people aged between 0 and 14 is expected to fall from 31.3% in 2023 to 25.8%, while those aged 65 and above will increase from 5.5% to 6.6%. The working-age population is projected to account for 67.6% of the population, creating the possibility of a demographic dividend if the economy can generate sufficient jobs and opportunities.
The median age is expected to rise from 26 years in 2023 to 29 years in 2038, reflecting falling fertility and improved survival. The dependency ratio will also decline from 0.58 to 0.48, meaning fewer children and elderly people will depend on each working-age person.
At the same time, Botswana will become significantly more urban. The share of the population living in urban areas is projected to rise from 70.4% in 2023 to 76% by 2038.
The growth will be particularly pronounced around Gaborone and surrounding districts, as well as Palapye, Mahalapye, Serowe, Tonota, Tutume and Francistown. Statistics Botswana warns that these areas will face increasing pressure on housing, transport, infrastructure and environmental resources.
The demographic transformation will also be visible in Botswana’s birth rates. The total fertility rate is projected to decline from 2.86 children per woman in 2023 to 2.20 by 2038, while annual births are expected to fall from 55,850 to 49,415.
Yet people are expected to live longer. Total life expectancy is projected to increase from 68.9 years in 2023 to 74.7 years in 2038, with female life expectancy reaching 77.1 years and male life expectancy 72.1 years.
The population growth will also be unevenly distributed. Mogoditshane, Okavango, Tonota, Tutume, Boteti, Letlhakeng and Mahalapye are among the areas projected to grow fastest. By contrast, Tsabong, Hukuntsi, Charles Hill, Ghanzi/CKGR, Chobe and Sowa Town are expected to experience slower growth and faster ageing.