The mercury in the political thermometer rose a few degrees this week after President Museveni warned his rivals against provoking the armed forces.
Speaking to journalists on Wednesday at his farm in Kisozi while on the campaign trail for re-election, Mr Museveni warned supporters of the Opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party against engaging in demonstrations during the election period.
‘I have been hearing [Robert] Kyagulanyi say that security officers are small in numbers and rioters are many,’ Mr Museveni, who is the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party presidential candidate, said.
He added: ‘Please don’t listen to him because every soldier has 120 bullets. So if you say rioters are many, first count the bullets of the soldiers before talking about numbers. whoever tries shall face regret.’
NUP leader Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, has not encouraged his supporters to overwhelm security forces but has asked them to protect their votes after casting them.
Mr Kyagulanyi has repeatedly called on his supporters to remain non-violent.
Speaking at a rally in Iganga on October 4, Bobi Wine said: ‘We refuse to be provoked into violence. We are going to run this campaign on morality, legality, and exposing impunity.’
Mr Museveni’s remarks echoed earlier claims made in Parliament by Kasambya County MP David Kabanda, who alleged that Mr Kyagulanyi had said security forces numbered fewer than 50,000 compared to Uganda’s population of 45 million.
Both Speaker of Parliament Anita Among and the Leader of Opposition in Parliament, Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, demanded video evidence, which was never produced.
‘This is a very serious allegation that can bring this country down,’ Speaker Among warned during the December 2 plenary, giving Mr Kabanda 20 minutes to table proof, which he did not present.
Mr David Lewis Rubongoya, the secretary general of NUP, described MP Kabanda’s comments as ‘reckless and dangerous.’
He added: ‘How does a President start thinking about killing citizens? Peaceful protest is a constitutional right. All we want is a peaceful and credible election. Organise it properly, and these issues will not arise.’
Dr Livingstone Sewanyana, the executive director of the Foundation for Human Rights Initiative, said threatening citizens with bullets undermines constitutionalism.
‘An election must be peaceful. The President is also a candidate and must be treated as such. Warning the population with guns and bullets is unconstitutional. The role of the military is to protect borders, not intimidate voters,’ he said.
Likewise, political scientist Dr Juma Kakuba Sultan of Kyambogo University said “reliance on intimidation signals a government running out of options.’
“That is what authoritarian regimes do when civic space is shrinking. A government that has ruled for 40 years should be campaigning on achievements, not fear,’ he said.
The Opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party also weighed in on Museveni’s threats, with spokesperson John Kikonyogo stating that security resources are meant to protect citizens.
‘These bullets are funded by taxpayers to defend them, not threaten them,’ Mr Kikonyogo said.
Mr Elias Lukwago, a leader in newly-formed People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), said: ‘What Mr Museveni is doing is acts of cowardice, but what I can tell Ugandans is that no one should intimidate you because power belongs to you.’
‘….that is what Mr Museveni fears, the power of the people, because he knows he can be overthrown easily, as it has been in other countries,’ Mr Lukwago, who is also the Kampala Lord Mayor, added.
Delicate balance
Ahead of the 2021 General Election, more than 50 people were killed after security forces fired live ammunition at protesters following Mr Kyagulanyi’s arrest in November 2020 while on the campaign trail. Mr Museveni’s caution comes amid robust debate about whether voters should be allowed to stay around polling stations after casting their votes. The Electoral Commission and security agencies have cautioned voters against lingering at polling stations after NUP asked its supporters to ‘protect the vote.’
Electoral Commission Chairperson Justice Simon Byabakama recently said anyone found around polling stations after voting would be arrested.
The statement was reinforced by the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who put security forces on high alert.
‘Cast your vote and go home,’ Gen Muhoozi said at a UPDF ceremony on Monday. ‘Those who try to cause trouble will be dealt with swiftly and in accordance with the law.’
The remarks sparked debate in Parliament, with Kira Municipality MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda questioning whether or not the military was overstepping its constitutional mandate.
‘We want to know whether the military has taken over the organisation and management of elections,’Mr Ssemujju said, noting that the law allows voters to stand at least 20 metres from polling stations.
In response, Attorney General Kiryowa Kiwanuka clarified that voters are legally permitted to remain within that distance, but Opposition MPs said the core concern-security intimidation-remains unresolved.