When researchers Godber Tumushabe and Job Kiija authored a report in 2022 on one of the greatest empirical puzzles in postcolonial Uganda, the transition question, three possible scenarios were outlined.
‘We had the Flying Crested Crane scenario where Uganda has a peaceful election and transition to a new leader,’ Mr Kiija, one of the researchers, told Monitor.
‘Then we had a Storm in the Tea Cup where an election with disagreements and security force intervention, leading to a negotiated transition or national dialogue.’
The third scenario, colourfully dubbed Warrior-Mad King, envisages Uganda becoming ‘a military state, with the army solving political disputes.’
Since then, the researchers have followed up the 2022 study-Uganda Governance Transitions to 2026 and Beyond-with another body of research. It is just as provocative an enquiry as can possibly be. ‘Our recent study, Guns Everywhere: The Military and Uganda’s Transition Politics, suggests the Warrior-Mad King scenario is increasingly likely,’ Mr Kiija said in an interview on Thursday.
Warrior-mad king beckons?
The body of evidence that has compelled the researchers to gravitate toward the Warrior-Mad King scenario includes: Military involvement in campaigns and electoral processes; military takeovers of Electoral Commission roles; armed officers in Parliament and violent deployments; and abductions, torture, and attacks on civilians and police.
‘The President’s and Parliament’s silence implies a de facto military coup, with guns dominating Uganda’s politics 62 years after independence and nearly four decades under Museveni,’ Mr Kiija told Monitor.
In Autocratisation in Contemporary Uganda, a timely anthology on the autocratic deepening in Uganda and its attendant effects, Moses Khisa-the editor of the body of work which offers such insightful analysis-contends that President Museveni has ‘constructed and perpetuated regime resilience’ on three planks.
He lists: political uncertainty, institutional fragmentation, and elite co-optation. ‘Adaptation has been at the core of Museveni’s long rule,’ Dr Khisa writes, adding, ‘By adapting, he has had the legroom to rule for so long but also sustained the impetus to deepen an autocratic system of rule.’
Highly personalised, the autocratic system of rule that Dr Khisa describes has used elections-such as the one that millions of Ugandans are expected to take part in on January 15-to address the legitimacy deficits that continually assail it.
The elections, which Dr Khisa calls ‘dubious’, serve as ‘legitimating devices.’ And it appears a growing number of Ugandans have managed to connect the dots. Voter turnout in what-seen through Dr Khisa’s aperture-is the ritualistic coronation of the incumbent has plummeted from 73 percent in 1996 to 59 percent in 2021.
It was at the back-end of 2020 when, after unsuccessfully contesting four general elections against Mr Museveni in 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016, Dr Kizza Besigye unmoored himself from what he long saw as a legitimating device. ‘[In 2016] I made an assessment with my colleagues that there was a greater danger that needed to be dealt with. I came back with both gears-the gear of the elections and struggle. [.] We are at another crossroads when the junta is organising another election to legitimise themselves. Having my hands on both gears is not efficient. [.] Trust my judgment, this country will not be freed by [Simon] Byabakama [the Electoral Commission chairperson] going to Kololo to announce that there is another leader other than Mr Museveni,’ he said.
Calling the shots
In November 2024, with Dr Besigye in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, to attend Ms Martha Karua’s book launch, he was sensationally abducted. Weeks later he would appear before the General Court Martial (GCM).
The Opposition leader would also learn that he was deemed to have crossed a Rubicon by reaching for his gearshift and finding the appropriate gear for the ‘struggle’-the so-called Plan B. Although his treason case has since been moved to a civilian court, Dr Besigye remains incarcerated. And has in fact been for more than a year. His travails underscore the centrality of the army in Ugandan politics.
Dr Khisa’s anthology offers a nuanced and comprehensive analysis of how the Ugandan army, the UPDF, has come to be a handy tool of regime survival. Gerald Bareebe, in one of the book chapters, advances three elemental dimensions of strength.
‘The first is the use of the army to halt attempts by Opposition groups to mobilise dissent, and to enforce cohesion within the ruling party. The second is the discrete cultural domain of military operations and procedures gyrating around familial relations and close family ties,’ Dr Bareebe writes.
‘The third is the ability of President Museveni to out manoeuvre and prevent military officers from acquiring sufficient political power to challenge his authority. The regime feels secure because it is firmly protected by the military from its opponents, but also relies on ethnic and family ties to prevent dissent within the army ranks,’ the academic adds.
According to Mr Tumushabe and Mr Kiija’s research, the securitisation of Ugandan politics, which Dr Bareebe exhaustively describes, will culminate in-to mention but one-a change of system of government post 2026.
‘It is envisaged that as part of managing the political transition and succession process, Museveni will engineer a carefully orchestrated plan to change the system of government from presidential to parliamentary system, thereby abolishing universal adult suffrage for presidential elections,’ they disclose.
‘In a parliamentary system of government, a president who has absolute control over the public purse is able to procure the presidency either for himself, for a member of his family or any chosen ‘fisherman’ by deploying money to ensure that his ruling party has a parliamentary majority,’ they add of the vision of a post-2026 order that is a horror almost beyond contemplation.
The last chance saloon?
It is against this backdrop that Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine, of the National Unity Platform (NUP) has asked Ugandans to adopt a non-traditional lens for viewing the future. Since last September, the NUP principal has barnstormed the country with a message of apocalyptic proportions: This could be the last time you will be able to elect a President by ballot. Whether its shock value will banish the lingering stench of voter fatigue remains to be seen. Yet some analysts believe that the arithmetic is straightforward for the octogenarian incumbent, who is seeking a record-extending seventh elective term.
‘Older voters often associate [Mr Museveni] with stability and continuity, while many young and first-time voters-who have known no other leader-express fatigue, frustration, and a desire for generational change. His record is increasingly judged not only by past achievements but also by current economic pressures and the perceived lack of political renewal,’ Mr Timothy Chemonges, the executive director of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), opines.
Mr Marlon Agaba, the executive director of the Anti-Corruption Coalition Uganda (ACCU), reckons that-for what is at any rate a consequential process-next week’s poll has too many rough edges.
‘The credibility of the process is weakened by poor preparation and lack of transparency. The voter register was released only days before the election. Military involvement in the electoral process and the absence of voter education leave citizens uninformed about their rights and procedures.’
Mr Kiija told Monitor that the most decisive issue in Uganda’s political transition will be the demographic factor.
‘A significant portion of the population is young-nearly 50 percent of voters are under the age of 35, while almost 90 percent of Ugandans are below the age of 50. This means that the majority of citizens have only ever experienced one president. Their pressing needs, as well as their levels of satisfaction, revolve around issues such as the management of corruption, trust in institutions and the justice system, the security situation, respect for rights, access to public services, and the overall economy and business environment.’
The researcher is not in doubt about citizen apathy becoming widespread.
‘Many young Ugandans, particularly those in this age group, interact with peers in other parts of the world and observe regular transitions from one head of state to another. In contrast, they see the presidency in Uganda as being preserved for one individual, alongside a regime that appears increasingly militarised. As a result, there is a broad consensus on the need for a peaceful transition.’
Many known unknowns
Mr Kiija says citizens are closely watching to see whether the security forces will respect an electoral outcome that differs from the preferences of military leadership.
‘Equally important is the conduct of the Electoral Commission, which shapes public trust in the process. Concerns have already been raised about the integrity of the voters’ register, the use of technology, and disputes over whether citizens should remain at polling stations to observe the process. Confusing messages from government officials regarding the 20-metre proximity rule around polling areas have further dented the already fragile confidence in the electoral management system.’
In the lead-up to next week’s vote, the Electoral Commission has indicated a willingness to clean up the mess, albeit by smoothing over cracks. The voter register was released to all eight presidential candidates, even if belatedly. The widely felt impact of the disqualification of, largely, Opposition candidates should, however, critics opine, lead Uganda to ask itself more thoroughly and more openly whether-and, if so, in what form-enough has been done to forestall doomsday scenarios.