In the December 1980 presidential election, whose result was disputed and forced President Museveni to launch an armed rebellion, the central region, predominantly Baganda, fielded two candidates: Paul Ssemogerere and Jehoash Mayanja Nkangi. The two men have since passed on. Ssemogerere, who died in November 2022, was the candidate for the Democratic Party, and Nkangi, who died in March 2017, represented the Conservative Party.
Ssemogerere did very well in the election, unlike Mr Museveni and Nkangi. Had it been free and fair, he would have been declared the next president. But the Military Commission, headed by Paul Muwanga – he died in 1991 – prevented the Electoral Commission from announcing the results. It declared Uganda Peoples Congress’ (UPC) Milton Obote the winner, and Muwanga went on to become vice president and minister of Defence. Meanwhile, Mr Museveni pressed ahead with his Bush War for five years and seized power in January 1986. Uganda did not hold presidential elections for a little more than 10 years.
And when it did in 1996, political parties were not allowed to field candidates. Ssemogerere, who had served as a senior Cabinet minister in Mr Museveni’s government, holding the portfolios of Internal Affairs, Foreign Affairs and Public Service, stood for president again. But he polled just 23.6 percent of the vote (he even lost at the polling station in Nkumba where he voted) against Mr Museveni’s 74.3 percent. To date, National Unity Platform (NUP) president Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, remains Buganda’s most successful politician despite being in politics for only eight years. He is credited with launching a movement, People Power, that has evolved into the biggest Opposition party.
Out of the seven candidates challenging Mr Museveni’s re-election bid, Bobi Wine is arguably the most formidable, going by the huge crowds attending his campaign rallies – and what he achieved in 2021. While there are other candidates Ugandans take seriously, such as former army commander, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, the leader of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), those candidates have not clearly demonstrated broad political appeal comparable to Bobi Wine’s.
In Bobi Wine, as I wrote several years ago in this paper, the Baganda, who have complained about being used by politicians from other regions and were once labelled political condoms, have their best chance of having one of their own leading Uganda. Now, let me be clear: Uganda is for every Ugandan, not only Baganda. But we cannot run away from the fact that the Baganda would be happy seeing a qualified, elected Muganda leading Uganda. They are supporting Bobi Wine in part because he is like them, just as the people of Ankole/western Uganda have supported Mr Museveni for decades.
To be fair to Bobi Wine, he is not a Buganda candidate. Thousands of people outside Buganda like him. Everywhere he has been on his campaign trail – central, east, north, south, west – he has been greeted by enthusiastic, cheering crowds eager to hear what he has to say. His popularity beyond Buganda is the reason NUP’s treasurer, Benjamin Katana, told NTV on November 10: ‘There was a notion that Kyagulanyi’s support was limited to central Uganda, but that has been disproved by the masses welcoming us from across the country.
The growing popularity of our candidate, especially in the Ankole region, has made the government afraid, and they are now acting with impunity.’ Uganda has to be proud of Bobi Wine. He has laid bare the sham that is NRM’s democracy. Each time people say Bobi Wine can win but he will not get power, they are basically saying Uganda has zero democracy. Another reason Uganda should be proud of Bobi Wine is that it takes bravery to challenge Mr Museveni because he has made it not just hard but extremely risky.