Although many farmers across the country are happy after the first 2026 rainy season facilitated good crop growth, some are reporting poor yields. This is blamed on insufficient rain experienced between March and May in some districts. In Teso Sub-region, farmers who planted early are already harvesting legumes and grain. Ms Grace Ariokot says they are already buying fresh green gram from farmers, an indication that some people took advantage of the early February rains to plant cereals and legumes.
Currently, she says that they are buying green gram at Shs1,800 per kilogramme, which three weeks ago was selling at Shs4,000.
However, millet goes for Shs3,000 per kilogramme because most farmers who grow millet have not yet harvested. Mr Samson Ochoma, another produce dealer, says in the districts of Kumi and Ngora, the farmers have started to harvest groundnuts. However, the prospects for better groundnut harvest this year are not so clear due to the leaf blight attack in the sub-region. In Kamuli and Buyende, farmers are complaining over rains which were in excess in May yet it is usually the fruiting and maturing season.
‘The erratic, unpredictable rains disrupted flowering and crops may not recover.
Rice fields in the swamps were flooded, crops were destroyed by storms in Balawoli and Namasagali sub-counties and famers are counting loses. That is why we advocate for irrigation, not rain-fed farming,’ Grace Musenja, an agriculture officer in Kamuli District , says Patrick Oode, a cassava farmer in Lyingo Village, says the cassava tubers rotted due to heavy rains. Ms Rebecca Babirye, the Jinja District assistant agriculture officer, says it is still too early to accurately determine the magnitude of the loss as harvesting is still ongoing.
‘Despite complaints about unstable rainfall patterns earlier in the season, crops generally received sufficient rainfall,’ she explains. She is optimistic that farmers will register good yields in the current season due to the continued rains being experienced across the district. Mr John Waiswa, a coffee and banana farmer from Budondo Sub-county, Jinja says farmers who planted early and followed proper agronomic practices managed to benefit despite the unstable rainfall.
Islands
In Kalangala District, farmers reported mixed outcomes from the recent rainfall patterns, with some recording improved harvests while others, particularly sweet potato growers, suffered poor yields due to prolonged heavy rains. Mr Adrian Matovu, a farmer in Buligo Village, Kalangala Town Council, says sweet potatoes need balanced weather, with both rain and sunshine. ‘The roots need time to separate into those that will develop into tubers and those that absorb nutrients and water from the soil. Because of the heavy rains, many farmers did not get the yields they expected,’ he says.
He explains that when rains are heavy, the soil becomes compacted. The only advantage is that farmers can preserve seedlings for the next planting season, especially as we enter a period with less rainfall. According to Mr Matovu, food crops in Kalangala generally perform better under moderate rainfall than during prolonged wet conditions. ‘Rain three times a month is enough to support high yields in Kalangala,’ he says. He adds that the district often receives rainfall when the new moon appears and in the first five days after its disappearance, a pattern many local farmers rely on when planning their farming activities.
Mr Godfrey Sebyanzi, a farmer in Mweena Village, says the recent rains helped many farmers recover from losses experienced during last year’s dry spell. ‘Now we are harvesting more and getting better yields,’ Mr Sebyanzi says Mr Paul Semanda, an agriculturalist in Kalangala District, says farming activities were severely disrupted between September and December last year due to a prolonged dry spell. ‘From September to late December, we had almost no rain, which affected the planting season. Then when rain fell during the Christmas season, it was erratic. The rains that started in February have brought relief and renewed hope among farmers,’ he says.
He adds that the improved weather conditions have boosted oil palm production across the district and they expect production to remain high until July. Mr Semanda urges farmers not to panic over predicted dry spells, but instead use the period to undertake activities that can improve productivity such as mulching and drying produce such as coffee. In the villages of Terego District, West Nile Sub-region, Mr Swaleh Adiga, a farmer in Katrini Village, says: ‘We have faced drought most of May and those who had planted beans have lost most of them to the intense sunshine. I usually desist from planting certain crops in the first rain season that starts in March or April as it is unpredictable.’
‘That first rain season is ideal for planting cassava because once it has germinated with some little rain, it can withstand the sunshine. I plan to plant beans and maize in July when rain is reliable,’ he adds Ms Gertrude Abia, a resident of Logiri Sub-county, which is regarded as the Arua District food basket, says: ‘Food is being harvested from the swampy areas as the rain in May was not much. It has been this way for most of the seasons.’
Western Uganda
Farmers across the districts of Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima and Kiryandongo have expressed concern over the unusual weather throughout May, which disrupted farming activities and raised fears of crop losses. Mr Robert Byaruhanga, a maize farmer in Kimengo Sub-county, Masindi District, says the persistent rains have made it difficult for farmers to harvest and dry their produce. ‘Unlike in previous years, this year, it rained throughout May, denying us days to dry our produce. Some of us harvested maize, but it is beginning to develop mold because drying has become difficult,’ he says.
In Buliisa District, Ms Janet Alanyo, a cassava farmer from Ngwedo Sub-county, says waterlogged gardens have affected crop growth. ‘Rain is only good for crops when it is in moderate quantities. Some gardens are flooded and farmers are worried about diseases,’ she says. Mr David Kisembo, an agricultural officer in Hoima District, says the region has experienced above-normal rainfall compared to previous years. According to a climate expert Samuel Mugisha, the prolonged rains are part of changing weather patterns associated with climate change.
In Kiryandongo District, Mary Adoch, a farmer, says the uncertainty is affecting planning for the next planting season.
‘Farmers need timely weather information to make better decisions because the seasons are no longer as predictable as before,’ she says.
Looming dry spell
Weather prediction shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive below -average rainfall during the June-July-August(JJA) season, raising concerns over agricultural production, livestock health and water availability. Water ministry officials warn farmers, livestock keepers and households to prepare for water shortages and crop stress. Dr Alfred Okot, the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Water and Environment, says the forecast points to a prolonged dry spell across large parts of Uganda.
‘A bigger part of the country will get below, or projected to get below-average rainfall. This is going to cause stress, especially to crops, animals and human beings. We therefore need to take precautions, and those involved in livestock should ensure they conserve water,’ Dr Okot explains. The ministry advises farmers to plant drought-tolerant crops and reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture by investing in irrigation and water storage systems. Dr Okot attributes the changing weather patterns partly to climate change and urges Ugandans to adopt environmentally sustainable practices to mitigate its effects. Compiled by Al Mahdi Ssenkabirwa, Felix Warom Okello, Clement Alum, Simon P Emwamu, Opio Caleb, Robert Muhereza, Tausi Nakato, Denis Edema, Ismail Bategeka
June-August season weather outlook
According to the June-August seasonal outlook, released by Ministry of Water and Environment last week, Uganda will experience drier and warmer- than-normal conditions across much of the country in the next three months. These patterns will be influenced by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, associated with an El Nino tendency, which is expected to suppress rainfall across much of the country. Meteorologists also note that local factors such as mountains, large water bodies and vegetation would continue to influence rainfall distribution in specific regions.
In Western Uganda, including the districts of Kabale, Kisoro,Rukungiri, Isingiro, Mbarara and Ibanda. Dry conditions are expected to persist throughout the forecast period (June to August). The Rwenzori region, covering Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko,Kabarole, and Bunyangabu, as well as parts of Bunyoro including Hoima, Kikuube and Buliisa, will experience isolated light rains in early June before dry conditions dominate for the remainder of the season. Masindi and Kiryandongo are expected to receive occasional light rainfall.
In Central Uganda, including Kampala, Wakiso, Mpigi, Mityana and Kalangala, isolated showers are forecast until mid-June before giving way to predominantly dry conditions through August. Similar conditions are expected in the cattle corridor districts of Sembabule, Lyantonde, Mubende, Kiboga and Nakasongola. Eastern Uganda is forecast to fare slightly better. Areas around Lake Victoria and eastern Kyoga, including Jinja, Mayege, Kamuli, Tororo, Pallisa, Budaka and Butaleja, are expected to receive intermittent rainfall beyond mid-June. The Mount Elgon region, including Mbale, Bududa, Sironko and Kapchorwa is also likely to continue receiving periodic rains.
Districts in West Nile and Karamoja are expected to transition from current dry conditions to isolated rains by mid-June, followed by intermittent showers through August. Northern districts such as Gulu, Kitgum, Amuru and Lamwo are expected to continue receiving on-and-off rainfall throughout the season. Overall, northern and eastern Uganda will experience near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while central and western regions are expected to remain significantly drier than usual. Meteorological officials urge local governments, farmers and water authorities to use the forecast for planning and preparedness to minimise the impact of the anticipated dry spell.