The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) and the Ministry of Finance are yet again rebasing the size of the country’s economy or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This to particularly encapsulate capital investments in the nascent oil and gas industry as the government eagerly awaits kick-starting commercial oil production in the Financial Year (FY) 2027/2028.
The rebasing of the GDP, the total of all goods and services produced within the country at the current prices, sources told Monitor, is aimed at moving forward the current base, the reference period for constant price calculations, of the economy ‘to account for realities in the market’ following, among others, the micro and macroeconomic shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, investments in oil, and undercurrents in international aid.
Ubos/Finance ministry last rebased the economy in 2019 using the FY2016/2017 as the base, which revealed that the size of the economy had expanded to Shs122.6 trillion, translating into economic growth of 6.5 percent during FY2018/2019, up from Shs10.9 trillion in FY2009/2010. Ubos and the Ministry of Finance’s top technocrats declined to comment on the matter.
Knowledgeable sources, however, said there is more method to madness of rebasing the real GDP, used interchangeably with nominal GDP, including the need to re-evaluate the country’s GDP per capita; the measure of a country’s average income and economic health, and examining market dynamics and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP); the measure to compare the absolute purchasing power.
Double-edged sword
The new rebasing, sources added, will also allow the revision of the debt-to-GDP ratio; the measures of the country’s accumulation of debt in comparison to the size of its economy, and particularly in light of the recent borrowing spree with high anticipation of petro-revenues.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s June 2025 Annual Debt Statistical Bulletin and Public Debt Portfolio Analysis, Uganda’s total public debt stock stood at $32.3b (Shs114.1 trillion), representing 51.3 percent of GDP, an increase of 26.2 percent from $25.6b (Shs90.4 trillion) in June 2024. Of the $32.3b, external debt amounted to $15.5b (Shs54.77 trillion), while domestic debt stood at $16.8b (Shs59.36 trillion) or 26.7 percent of GDP.
Despite this increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio to nearly 53 percent against the recommended optimal 40 percent for poor countries, according to the last International Monetary Fund/World Bank debt sustainability analysis, ‘Uganda continues to face a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress in the FY 2025’.
‘However, Uganda has limited space to absorb shocks, and preserving debt sustainability requires continued effort towards fiscal consolidation centered on enhancing domestic revenue mobilisation as well as rationalising expenditures,’ the World Bank said in the September Economic Update.
The rebasing generally offers a clearer view of the country’s economic structure, despite the fundamental disconnect between the size of the economy and the picture of ground marked by poverty and social inequality, broken public infrastructure such as roads and dysfunctional social services propelled by poor planning, and corruption, which is the jet fuel of the government that has been in power since 1986.
To stymie the social and income inequality, the government in 2021 mulled the Parish Development Model programme that entails sending Shs1 trillion to the 12,000 parishes across the country each financial year.
Noteworthy in the rebasing of the size of the economy are foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Uganda’s oil project with projected investments of $15b (Shs53 trillion) for development of the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil projects operated by TotalEnergies EP and CNOOC, and the transport crude pipeline from Hoima to Tanga Port at the Indian Ocean in Tanzania.
Mr Ernest Rubondo, the executive director of the oil sector regulator, Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), told journalists on November 21, while commemorating 10 years since PAU’s formation, that commercial oil production is expected to commence next year.
He revealed that about $11.11b (Shs39.2 trillion) had been invested in the oil project by the end of June 2025 and that over $4b (Shs14.1 trillion) is continuing to be invested between 2025 to 2027, as the country commences crude oil production and concludes development.