Dear reader, looks like Mr Museveni will return to Kasese next week. Mbu he will hold a rally on Monday, January 12, 2026, in Kisinga Town Council (neighbours the famous Kiburara). What brings Mr Museveni back to Kasese? The Bakonzo have a saying that ‘a hunter’s need, not the game, decides the timing of the hunt’.
Mr Museveni’s need is votes; he will come to Kasese hunting for votes. However, the official reason is that he will be in Kisinga (Kasese) to preside over the official upgrading of Nyabirongo Health Centre IV from Health Centre III status.
For the record, I am intimately associated with Nyabirongo Health Centre. Although I was born elsewhere, my birth was recorded as someone born at Nyabirongo Health Centre. Please forgive my immodesty. I was also involved in lobbying the Ministry of Health senior officials to fast-track the process of upgrading Nyabirongo Health Centre III to Health Centre IV status.
The analysis is that Mr Museveni’s rally in Kasese on Monday, January 12, is likely to be his last for this campaign. It is very probable that from Kasese, he will be heading to a place near a polling station, waiting for January 15.
We don’t have to read so much into this: in any case, there would have to be the last rally of the campaign. What NRM cadres in Kasese should concern themselves with is: Will Kasese offer Mr Museveni the yield and field? I have said elsewhere that Kasese District NRM leadership is a complex animal. For instance, there are almost no NRM activist cadres (keyword: Activist) in Bukonzo County East. To fill the gap, civil servants (particularly those working outside Kasese) born in Bukonzo County East have taken to subtle mobilisation for the NRM.
The district NRM leadership is still reeling from the PSE (Party Structure Elections) in which Dr Crispus Kiyonga lost his position as district NRM chairperson. The political divide between Bukonzo and Basongora counties is more visible than ever. The fear is that the voting patterns for candidates vying for entire-district constituencies like (district chairperson and District Woman Representative) may reveal something more ugly. It is very probable that a candidate may get 90 percent from his county, revealing a divided district.
Question then is: how far can this Busongora-Bukonzo political divide impact the vote count for candidate Museveni? The most complicated constituency is Bukonzo County East. From 2006 to date, Bukonzo County East has never returned an NRM MP. However, observers say NRM seems to have a better shot at the Bukonzo County East seat in these elections.
Dr Julius Rude Monday, the NRM candidate for Bukonzo County East, was second in the 2021 election (he had an NRM-leaning candidate in the race). In 2026, Dr Rude is squaring off with a divided Opposition (with candidates from National Unity Platform, Forum for Democratic Change and People’s Front for Freedom). It is a safe bet to say that Mr Museveni’s visit to Bukonzo County East will give Dr Rude’s candidature a psychological edge. Indeed, Dr Rude has framed himself as the man who returned NRM to Bukonzo East.
I personally ask Mr Museveni for two things: Upgrading Kiburara Health Centre II to Health Centre III and a secondary school in Kitabu Sub-county. Yes, this is the county in which Mr Museveni always returns decimal vote numbers. In fact, there is an election in which Mr Museveni is said to have received one vote from one of the polling stations in Kitabu Sub-county. And dear reader, if Mr Museveni delivers my tractor (I have been begging him), Kasese shall offer the yield and the field on January 15.