When President Museveni kicks off his vote hunt in Buganda Sub-region today, starting with Mubende District, he steps onto a terrain far more complicated than any political battleground he has faced in recent times.
For the next 28 days, Mr Museveni will be crisscrossing the districts of Buganda and will hold his final rally at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds next month. Buganda, the cultural, demographic, and economic heart of Uganda has become a sub-region where the weight of unaddressed grievances hangs as heavily as the banners of competing political parties.
For a leader who once commanded comfortable margins here, the Buganda sub-region now presents a challenging examination of both legacy and legitimacy.
Mr Museveni arrives not as an unchallenged incumbent who seeks to extend his rule beyond 40 years, but as a man confronted by a rising tide of distrust, one that even he has publicly acknowledged. At the national evangelical convention held at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds in May, the President and First Lady Janet Museveni issued a startling and rare public joint apology, accepting failures in governance, corruption, security personnel excesses, and the alienation of citizens, especially in Buganda and the whole country. ‘We acknowledge that we’re human…and have made mistakes in one way or the other. Forgive us, oh Lord,’ The Musevenis said solemnly from the podium. Yet several political observers remain unconvinced. Some said the apology, profound as it sounded, may have arrived too late to change hearts hardened by years of frustrations.
The land question, poverty
Nowhere is this frustration more evident than in the land conflicts plaguing Buganda. Land in the sub-region is not just an asset, it is heritage, identity, and security. And yet, stories of land grabbing and illegal evictions continue to dominate local conversations. Residents speak of eviction notices appearing overnight, of machete-wielding thugs hired by faceless speculators, of wrangles where even valid land titles offer little protection. The government’s Land Fund, originally designed to solve precisely these problems, remains largely ineffective for Buganda Sub-region, its operations opaque, slow, and inadequately financed.
Victims, often poor peasants, have no structured government programme to help them rebuild their lives. Mr Museveni’s government may argue policy complexity, but on the ground, the story is simpler: people feel abandoned by the State and exploited by powerful interests acting in its shadow. In Buganda’s political calculus, unaddressed land grievances amount to a haemorrhage of trust.
Compounding the land crisis is the sub-region’s growing economic anguish. The high cost of living has tightened its grip on households and businesses alike. The rising prices of fuel, food, and essential commodities are not unique to Buganda, but the sub-region’s heavy reliance on small and medium-scale enterprises has amplified its vulnerabilities.
When Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited (UEDCL) took over power distribution from Umeme in April, several citizens expected relief from high tariffs and unreliable power supply. Instead, unreliable power supply has crippled workshops, factories, welding shops, tailors, and agro-processors. Machines stall mid-production; perishables spoil; investors lose patience. For a sub-region that prides itself on entrepreneurial dynamism, the power crisis feels like a betrayal. Mr Museveni, as he seeks to court voters in Buganda, will have to answer a painful question from traders in Kisekka, and manufacturers in Namanve Industrial Area and elsewhere: How can a government that prides itself on industrialisation fail at the basic task of keeping the lights on?
The unreturned properties
No political conversation in Buganda today is complete without the subject of unreturned kingdom properties. In 2013, the government handed over some land titles to the kingdom, a gesture that was widely celebrated. But the deeper issue remains unresolved. As of May 2025, the government still owes the kingdom more than Shs700 billion, mainly in accumulated rent arrears for buildings and land occupied by ministries and agencies. What frustrates officials at Bulange -the official seat of Buganda Kingdom is not the complexity of the dispute, but the lack of urgency. For the Financial Year 2025/2026, no funds were allocated toward settling the arrears.
Tension deepened when President Museveni offered to construct a Shs58 billion building named Lwattamu House for a section of Buganda clan heads in Mengo, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to bypass or weaken the mainstream kingdom administration. Mr Museveni oversaw the ground breaking ceremony for the construction of the six-storey Lwattamu House on July 25. Katikkiro Charles Peter Mayiga’s absence from all events related to the project-from negotiations to the ground-breaking ceremony- was a silent, but unmistakable message.
Officially, the kingdom remains politically neutral. Unofficially, the mood at Bulange reflects a quiet resistance against what they perceive as attempts by the State to infiltrate cultural structures. Yet the kingdom has recently been more open in hosting political actors across the spectrum. Mr Mayiga himself recently hosted a group of ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party leaders led by Mr Haruna Kasolo (NRM vice chairperson for Buganda Region), while Central Broadcasting Services (CBS) Radio- the kingdom mouthpiece has resumed giving airtime to National Unity Platform (NUP) politicians after years of tension-culminating in the December 10 appearance of NUP spokesperson and Leader of Opposition in Parliament Joel Ssenyonyi.
Among the loudest voices challenging Mr Museveni’s renewed bid is that of NUP president Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine. The latter claims that over 400 of his supporters, many from Buganda, are languishing in prisons on trumped-up charges. Others have been maimed by security operatives as they follow him on the campaign trail. Dozens more bear scars from brutal encounters with security operatives during the 2020-2021 campaign period.
Whether the government disputes these numbers or not, the psychological effect is undeniable. In Masaka, Mukono, Mpigi, Kyotera, and Kampala City, the memories of violence shape political identity. For several families, politics is not an abstract debate, it is a missing son, an injured daughter, a trial that never ends.
Mr Siraje Nsanja, a political scientist, said Mr Museveni’s apology at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds in May could have been partly aimed at healing these wounds, but healing requires more than contrition.
‘It demands political and judicial reforms, accountability for past abuses, and the release or fair trial of detainees. Without concrete steps, Buganda’s youth, already disillusioned, may view the apology as mere choreography,’ he said. Mr Nsanja added: ‘As Museveni steps into Mubende to launch his campaigns in Buganda , he will discover whether the apology he offered, the promises he will make, and the reforms he undertakes can convince voters that he still deserves another chance-or whether the region has already moved on.”
Can Museveni win Buganda back?
As Mr Museveni begins his campaigns in Buganda today, the question is not whether he can draw crowds; they will come, as they always do. The real question is whether or not his message will resonate in a sub-region that feels chronically unheard. ‘To win back the Buganda vote, Museveni must confront-not avoid-the issues that have eroded trust and these should include: presenting a clear, time-bound plan for resolving land injustices, restore economic confidence by stabilising power supply and reducing the cost of living, commit to honouring the full spectrum of obligations to the Buganda Kingdom ,address political repression by reviewing cases of political detainees and curbing security excesses and transforming his Kololo apology from symbolism into actionable governance reforms,’ Mr Abdul Nadduli, a former minister without Portfolio and currently a presidential advisor, said.
He added: ‘Anything less, risks deepening the political gulf that has widened over the past decade.’ On the other hand, Mr Nsanja argued that the NRM may exploit the disunity of Opposition parties and candidates in Buganda to win some parliamentary seats, especially in rural constituencies where poverty alleviation programmes like the Parish Development Model (PDM) are registering some success. ‘The Opposition is relatively weak on ground and lack a clear message rather than saying Museveni…should go. If they [Opposition] were united, they could have galvanised support and given NRM a hard time in the entire region, but because of their internal weaknesses, NRM still enjoys reasonable support in rural districts like Lyantonde, Sembabule,’ he explained.
The NRM insists it has learnt from its 2021 defeat in Buganda. Former NRM vice chairperson for Buganda Godfrey Kiwanda said the party commissioned an internal survey after the polls, identifying eight issues behind its loss. Among them were rising land grabbing cases, poverty, a deteriorating relationship with Buganda Kingdom, internal party wrangles, and the impact of Covid-19. ‘Since then, we have taken major steps.The Land Fund budget was increased; several victims have received titles, and our relationship with the Buganda Kingdom is very strong now,’ Mr Kiwanda said.
What is clear is that the race for Buganda sub-region’s political soul is far from over. Of the total 21.6 million voters countrywide, Buganda has 6.8 million voters – making it the sub-region with largest number of voters and a battleground for the January polls. Since President Museveni assumed power in 1986, Buganda is among the sub-regions where he has been gathering many votes. But this trend changed in the 2021 polls following the emergence of Bobi Wine with his People Power Movement.