Almost half of the candidates for Member of Parliament starting their campaigns today are running on individual merit, signalling a continuation of the trend where independents are increasing at the cost of political parties.
Party honchos are concerned that independent candidates, the majority of whom are those who lost party primaries, will split votes during elections and eat into party composition in the 12th Parliament. Uganda runs a hybrid political system that allows both party-sponsored and individual merit participation, but in a system of rule by majority, political parties gain from consolidating seats, especially in Parliament, where numbers decide policy and legislative agenda.
In the 2021 elections, more than half of the 2,801 total nominated candidates were independent. A total of 74 won the elections, making independents the second largest group in the 11th Parliament, behind NRM. Analysis of the composition of the legislature since the 8th Parliament shows that political parties are losing seats to independents. This trend is attributed to multiple factors, including individual ambition overriding party loyalty, weaknesses in political parties, and the hostile, over-commercialised political terrain. A limited appreciation of the multiparty politics and the hangover of the Movement system have also contributed to the trend.
The impact on parties Numbers show that since the reintroduction of parties in 2005, the ruling party, NRM, and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) have been most affected, with NRM experiencing the largest losses in 2021. An analysis by the Daily Monitor in conjunction with Crane Analytics Limited, a data analysis firm, found there were 12 and 14 defectors from NRM in 2016 and 2021, respectively. FDC had 3 and 2 defections in 2016 and 2021 respectively. In absolute numbers, the NRM retains the highest number of MPs at 337 of the total 519 directly elected MPs, followed by the NUP at 57, FDC at 32, UPC and DP at 9 each, and Jeema and PPP with one each. Its percentage composition, however, has declined in the last three parliaments.
Opposition parties have not been spared. NRM’s have declined from 70 percent to 63.7 percent; FDC from 9 percent to 6 percent; UPC from 2.6 percent to 1.7 percent; DP from 3.2 percent to 1.7 percent from 2011 to 2021. On the other hand, independents have increased from 40 in the 8th Parliament. Percentage-wise, the composition of independents has fluctuated between 12, 11.4, 15.4, and 13.8 percent from the 8th to the 11th parliament. Analysis shows a mixed bag of gains and losses. For example, more than 25 constituencies represented by the NRM in the 10th Parliament fell to independents in the 11th Parliament. The party gained a little over 30 constituencies, including newly created constituencies.
FDC lost three key constituencies, Bugweri, Aruu, and Kasilo. In Bugweri, Mr Abdu Katuntu, who had held for FDC for four terms, ran independently and won, just like Mr Elijah Okupa in Kasilo County. DP, which has been a darling in Masaka District, lost the Woman MP seat to an independent, just like UPC in Lira. Mr John Kikonyogo, the FDC spokesperson, says in elections, independents are eating into party votes. ‘It disorganises parties after someone defeated in the primaries runs as an independent. Your support is immediately divided because there are voters in the party who may believe in that particular person as an individual. It even becomes difficult for them to come back to the party when they win,’ he says. Since the return of political parties in 2005 that ended the Movement system introduced in 1986, Uganda runs a hybrid system.
Article 72(4) of the Political Parties and Organisations Act of 2005 and the Parliamentary Elections Act permit any person to stand for election independent of any political party. Mr Yusuf Serunkuma, a political commentator, believes this is an avenue for Ugandans with no association to parties to participate in elective politics. It is fairness, he says He argues that those with party affiliations, however, could be accused of disrespect for the political parties after they have not been given cards and have no faith in the parties they seem to belong to. ‘You could accuse them of what Norbert Mao has called meal card politics.
They don’t go to those parties really because they believe in them, but they go there because they believe the parties could give them access as a vehicle to deliver them to a position. If it doesn’t, then they don’t care whether there’s an ideology to protect,’ he says. Bearing in mind the nature of Ugandan politics that has become do-or- die, he adds: ‘Whoever is standing in any position, whether on the party ticket or not, all are ambitious.’ ‘It’s becoming more about fighting for oneself than fighting for the common good. Most of our people want to become MPs, not to serve the people, but to get the small packages that are there in Parliament. If the wave goes to some other party, they join,’ Mr Kikonyogo says.
Survival mechanism? Ms Alice Alaso, the national coordinator for the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), fronts multiple factors, including survival mechanisms. ‘People know they can get into Parliament and survive without any political agenda,’ Ms Alaso says. Others, however, argue that weak institutional frameworks that cannot effectively deliver transparent, free, fair, and credible primary elections, creating disenchantment, have pushed many to run independently. Mr Medard Sseggona, the Busiro East legislator who lost the NUP flag, says the number of independents will increase if parties do not clean up internal processes.
‘If you look at the number of independents in the current parliament, it’s sizable. And yet, most, if not all of them, belong to or have inclinations to parties, existing parties. So it means that the choice of the parties was not the right one in a number of cases,’ Mr Sseggona says.
‘I think everybody would love to belong to a political party. But the structure of most of our parties is a disincentive. It’s making many people think that, yes, I can still play a role at any political level as an independent. After all, the freedom to associate and the political parties also include the freedom not to associate,’ Mr Wilfred Niwagaba, the Ndorwa West MP, says.
Mr Kikonyogo reveals that parties under the Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD) have raised these concerns, but failed to arrive at a definitive solution. The NRM Secretary General, Mr Richard Todwong, has previously warned that they would not allow party primary losers to return as independents, but this has not been implemented.
The party chairperson, President Museveni, has also often chastised them, saying they disadvantage the flagbearers. ‘Where there are NRM and opposition candidates, I wouldn’t advise you to come as an independent, because if you do and things go wrong, you will be the one to blame. Where there are only NRMs in the race, even there I would prefer you use the law, so that you don’t confuse our people,’ the State House website quotes the President in an October 14 post. Other independent candidates have argued a lack of alignment with any political party ideology or a lack thereof.
The political polarisation along party lines has also pushed others to run as independents. For others, it’s to escape the wrath of the unforgivingly brutal politics characterised by violence both from the state and competing parties. Ms Alaso, citing the example of the ANT spokesperson, Mr Gerald Karuhanga, who is contesting as an independent for the Ntungamo Municipality seat, says individual merit beats party strength in some constituencies.
‘The people of Ntungamo Municipality said it is in their best interest across party lines that Karuhanga does not contest as ANT, as Opposition, or as NRM. They just want Karuhanga. We know that his allegiance to ANT is undisputable,’ she said. A closer look at the 2021 election results reveals that the majority of the independents were party-leaning individuals who had lost in the primaries, edging out flagbearers. For example, for the Amuria Woman MP seat, Ms Susan Amero, who had represented the district on an NRM ticket in the 10th Parliament, won as an independent after losing the primaries. It was the same case with Mr Peter Mugema (Iganga Municipality), Ms Shartsi Musherure (Mawogola North), and FDC’s Elijah Okupa (Kasilo), among others.
In next year’s general election, an estimated 200 NRM members who lost the party primaries are running as independents. Among them are ministers and senior party members such as Gen Jeje Odongo (Foreign Affairs), David Bahati (State, Trade, Industry and Cooperatives), Obiga Kania (Internal Affairs) and Dr Moriku Kaducu (State, Primary Education) The biggest Opposition political party in Parliament, NUP, is facing a similar challenge, with several party members and current MPs who did not get the flag running as independents. With this encumbrance, there is debate as to whether the party will repeat its 2021 feat for such a big number by an Opposition party.
The split of the FDC that saw the creation of PFF, and its taking away of historical members complicates the situation further for the party. Conversely, some of the independent candidates who allege they were stripped of their victory due to unjust party primaries and processes, are campaigning for the presidential candidate of the party whose sponsorship they lost. These, upon joining Parliament, while barred from joining a political party, have the discretion to ally with any party of choice and support the party’s position. For example, just days after she won the 2024 by-election as an independent, having lost the party flag, Ms Grace Ngabirano Akifeza (Kisoro District Woman MP), signed a memorandum of understanding to work with the NRM, which allowed her to attend the party caucuses.
Mr Niwagaba has been an independent legislator for the last two terms after he was thrown out of the NRM party. He argues that being independent offers the flexibility needed to put country first.
‘Unlike in the parties, where at times you are bound by a party position, however unpopular and unreasonable it may be, you [independent MP] can choose whose policies best favour the interest of the country,’ he says.
But there are limitations.
‘Parties wield a lot of influence because of their numerical strength. And at the end of the day, you become limited as an independent to have a lot of influence. One way or the other, you associate yourself with one of the major parties in the House. Your level of influence tends to be minimal,’ he says.