Uganda’s diplomat Olara Otunnu has recorded the largest surge in support during the second informal straw poll for the next United Nations Secretary-General, signaling strong momentum for his candidacy after a well-received pitch to the UN General Assembly.
The private ballot, held on August 21 by the 15-member Security Council, showed Otunnu more than doubling his positive tally. The Ugandan diplomat picked up three additional “encourage” votes while significantly dropping his negative ratings, consolidating his position as a formidable contender in an open race to succeed outgoing UN chief António Guterres.
Otunnu’s improved standing follows his interactive dialogue with General Assembly member states on August 20. The diplomatic engagement appeared to sway delegates who were previously undecided or opposed, converting lingering hesitation into active backing. In the updated results, Otunnu secured five “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes, and five “no opinion” ballots. That marks a dramatic shift from July’s first round, where he registered just two “encourage” votes, eight “discourage” votes, and five “no opinion” responses.
Speaking after the council released the outcome, Ambassador Otunnu expressed gratitude to the Security Council and reaffirmed his commitment to the selection process.
“I have received from the President of the Security Council, the official outcome of the second straw ballot conducted today by the Security Council,” Otunnu said. “I am grateful to all members of the Security Council. I look forward to continued engagement with members of the Security Council and all Member States of the United Nations.”
While Otunnu posted the sharpest percentage gain among all eight candidates, the broader contest remains fluid. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett moved into first place with eight “encourage,” three “discourage,” and four “no opinion” votes. She narrowly displaced former frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, who finished second with seven “encourage,” four “discourage,” and four “no opinion” ballots.
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi tied Grynspan with seven “encourage” votes, but faced rising resistance as his “discourage” count tripled to six. Senegal’s Macky Sall recorded six “encourage” and seven “discourage” votes. Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa received four “encourage” votes, while former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet saw her early support plummet to two “encourage” votes. Ecuador’s Ivonne A-Baki, a late entrant, received no encouraging ballots.
None of the candidates have yet reached the nine affirmative votes required under Article 27 of the UN Charter to secure the Security Council’s recommendation. Experts note that shifting positions among the council’s permanent five members-Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States-leave the door open for dynamic realignments.
‘It is no surprise that some of the candidates have gained or lost ground, particularly as the P5 begin to express their preferences more openly,’ said Daniel Forti, head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group. ‘No candidate has commanded a significant majority of Council members after two polls, which may convince other potential candidates that they now have an opportunity to jump into the race.’
Denmark’s Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, who holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, confirmed that candidate nominations and General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock had been formally notified of the results.
The Security Council will hold further secret ballots before recommending a single nominee to the 193-member General Assembly for formal appointment before Guterres’s term ends on December 31.