The chaos that marred Tanzania’s recent elections has triggered a wave of condemnation from regional and international observers, and reignited debate about the effectiveness of election observation in Africa. The African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the United Nations (UN), and several Western nations all criticised the way the Tanzanian election was conducted, citing irregularities, voter intimidation, and lack of transparency. The violent presidential election saw incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan elected with an apparent 98 percent of the vote, while hundreds of protestors were killed.
In its post-election statement, the AU Observer Mission expressed ‘deep concern about the absence of a level playing field and reports of voter suppression’. Similarly, SADC’s preliminary report noted that ‘the environment was characterised by restricted political freedoms, limited opposition participation, and a media landscape tilted in favour of the ruling party’. With Uganda preparing for its next general elections in January 2026, many are asking: Do election observers still matter – or have they become powerless witnesses to predictable outcomes?
Regional crisis
Mr Timothy Chemonges, the Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), says the post-election violence in Tanzania is symptomatic of a regional crisis of trust in institutions. ‘Elections are increasingly being managed as security operations rather than civic exercises,’ he says. ‘What we are witnessing is the shrinking space for genuine competition and citizen participation. The health of democracy in East Africa is deteriorating not because people no longer believe in it, but because institutions have been captured by power.’ On why international observer missions rarely push for accountability, he attributes it to diplomatic limitations.
‘Most observer missions operate within diplomatic constraints. They are designed to maintain relations, not to provoke confrontation,’ Mr Chemonges says. ‘Their criticism is often muted because of political sensitivities and fears of being declared persona non grata. What’s needed is stronger follow-up mechanisms within the AU and EAC frameworks to ensure recommendations lead to tangible reforms.’ In October, the Electoral Commission (EC) issued strict guidelines for individuals and organisations seeking accreditation to observe the 2026 polls.
‘Successful applicants shall be required to abide by the laws of the Republic of Uganda, remain non-partisan, and comply with the election observer guidelines and code of conduct to be issued by the Electoral Commission,’ EC spokesperson Julius Mucunguzi said. The Electoral Commission Act, Cap 176, Section 16 (1), provides for the accreditation of representatives from political parties, civil society organisations, and other registered entities or individuals to observe electoral activities. This legal provision aims to guarantee credible and transparent elections through independent observation.
In 2021, the Commission says it accredited 2,184 stationary observers deployed at the sub-county level and 270 roving observers across all 146 districts. But some notable players stayed away. The United States and European Union observer teams did not participate in the polls. While the US cited the decision by the EC to deny more than 75 percent of its accreditation requests, the EU said it was staying away because none of the 30 recommendations made by the observer mission in 2016 were implemented. The number of observers for the 2026 elections is yet to be disclosed.
Lessons from Tanzania
The Tanzanian scenario mirrors what has repeatedly happened in Uganda, where observer missions have often raised similar concerns, from restricted access to polling stations and intimidation of Opposition agents to the misuse of State resources during campaigns. Despite repeated criticism from observers, the cycle of disputed elections has continued almost unchanged. Ms Sarah Bireete, the Executive Director of the Centre for Constitutional Governance, says the biggest lesson Uganda can learn from Tanzania is that democracy can only thrive in an environment where everyone is free to express themselves, vote, or be voted for in a free and competitive election.
‘The practice of banning and arresting competitors can’t help develop democracy,’ Ms Bireete says. ‘Leaders should promote a culture of co-existence.’
She adds that Uganda must focus on creating a level playing field by ensuring equal access to media, independent electoral institutions, and respect for civil liberties. ‘Without these foundations, elections become mere rituals rather than genuine expressions of the people’s will,’ she says. Prof Sabiti Makara from the Department of Governance at Kabale University says observers are critical in promoting transparency and accountability.
‘They inform the public about what has happened during the election. Their reports often guide the international community when making judgments about the credibility of an election or the governance situation in a country,’ Prof Makara says. He adds that while Uganda’s past elections, especially those of 2011 and 2016, had numerous gaps highlighted by observers, many of the recommendations were never implemented by the government. ‘The purpose of observation is to inform both citizens and the international community about the state of democracy in a country,’ he says.
Crossroads
Political analysts say Uganda is at a crossroads as EC accredits both local and international observers for 2026. For ordinary Ugandans, the debate is not about access, but about impact. ‘Every election, we see observers coming, writing reports, and then leaving. Nothing changes,’ says Sarah Chesuro, a teacher. ‘If they see violence or cheating, they should not just write reports; they should demand accountability.’ She believes the problem lies in the lack of follow-up mechanisms. ‘Once observers leave, no one ensures the EC or Parliament implements their recommendations. There’s no legal obligation to act,’ she explains.
A Tanzanian political commentator, who talked to Sunday Monitor but asked not to be named, blames her country’s post-election violence on weak regional oversight. ‘The African Union and SADC made strong statements, but they stopped at condemnation. There were no sanctions, no follow-up missions, no real accountability,’ she says. ‘If Uganda doesn’t learn from this, it will repeat the same mistakes – elections without real choice, and observers who can only lament afterwards.’ She argues that the credibility of elections in East Africa is being undermined by a ‘culture of managed democracy,’ where ruling parties control institutions while maintaining a façade of legitimacy.
But Mr James Wanyama, a Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) supporter, says while observers give people hope and encourage people to vote, some observers have in the past acted with bias, siding with Opposition groups. ‘We value constructive observation, not political activism disguised as monitoring,’ he says. This echoes what the government has sometimes called “foreign elements who fund Opposition to cause trouble.’ “Foreigners are supporting the Opposition… they’re planning to destabilise Uganda and prevent the swearing-in ceremony,’ said former Information minister Kabakumba Matsiko at the peak of the Walk-to-Work protests after the contested 2011 elections.
In May this year, Uganda’s military severed all military cooperation with Germany after it accused Berlin’s ambassador to Kampala of involvement in ‘subversive activities’. However, a spokesperson for Germany’s foreign ministry said at a press conference in Berlin that the accusations were ‘absurd and without any merit, and we reject them in the strongest terms’. But Mr Jimmy Oketch, a political researcher, says the 2026 elections will test whether Uganda has learned from its past. ‘If observers are given full access and their recommendations are implemented, we can begin rebuilding trust. But if it’s business as usual, then we are preparing for another contested election,’ he says.
Mr Oketch proposes amending electoral laws to make it mandatory for the EC to implement key observer recommendations or publicly explain why they have not. He also calls for more support for local observer groups. Mr Yusuf Makweta, a local election observer and human rights activist, says they expect improvements after every election cycle, but voter education remains a major challenge. ‘In this coming election, we have observed low levels of voter education. Some voters are unaware of what is happening,’ he says, adding that voter turnout has been declining, which he blames on limited civic education. Despite scepticism, many Ugandans still see election observers as a symbol of hope for democracy.
Watchdogs of democracy: Observers are not just visitors; they are watchdogs of democracy. When their presence is restricted or delayed, people start doubting whether the process is free and fair,” Samuel Okwi, political analyst
Eyes, ears: Local observers are better positioned to monitor grassroots issues such as voter bribery, ballot stuffing, and intimidation at polling stations. We are the eyes and ears of citizens,” David Waikono, election observer
Identify issues: They [election observers] help to come up with recommendations that can improve the electoral process over time. They identify issues that are going wrong and bring them to the attention of electoral managers ,” Robert Ssempala, HRNJ executive director