Three years into the administration of President Bola Tinubu, economists and policy experts have offered mixed assessments of his economic reforms, acknowledging that the policies have changed the direction of the Nigerian economy, while warning that the social costs remain high.
The experts commenting on the Capital Markets Academics of Nigeria’s platform agree that the reforms have addressed some long-standing problems, including fuel subsidies, multiple exchange rates, weak government revenue and inadequate capital in the banking sector.
However, they argue that the real test is whether the changes will eventually improve the living standards of ordinary Nigerians.
In an analysis titled: ‘Tinubu’s Impact: What Changed, What It Cost and How History May Judge It,’ economist, lawyer and public policy scholar, S. A. Ndanusa, said Tinubu confronted problems that previous governments had identified, but were reluctant to tackle.
The petrol subsidy was removed on May 29, 2023, while the foreign exchange market was liberalised shortly afterwards. The Central Bank of Nigeria also moved away from some forms of development financing, while the government introduced a major bank recapitalisation programme and advanced tax reforms. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund was also established to provide financing for students.
Ndanusa said the President acted decisively because the subsidy had become expensive and vulnerable to abuse, while multiple exchange rates encouraged arbitrage and government revenue was inadequate.
However, he noted that the reforms came with significant costs. Subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalisation created a major shock for an economy heavily dependent on imports. Transport, food, production and household expenses increased, while social protection and public transport alternatives were slow to respond.
According to Ndanusa, there are signs of improvement in some key economic indicators. The Central Bank has cleared verified foreign exchange backlogs and taken steps towards a more unified market and stronger reserves.
He said the tax reforms could become one of the administration’s most lasting achievements if they succeed in expanding government revenue without placing excessive pressure on compliant businesses.
He also noted that increased allocations from the Federation Account have provided more funds to states and local governments. However, he said citizens must be able to see the impact of the increased revenue through better services and infrastructure.
Ndanusa said major infrastructure projects, including highways and coastal corridors, show government ambition, but their success should be measured by transparent procurement, proper financing and clear results.
He identified insecurity as another major challenge, stressing that citizens judge government performance by whether they can travel, farm, conduct business and sleep safely.
Citing the IMF’s 2026 assessment, Ndanusa said the reforms had improved macroeconomic stability and strengthened economic resilience, but poverty remained a serious concern.
He noted that poverty was estimated at 63 percent, while about 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025.
Dr Ayinde O. Ayinde, a researcher at Covenant University, Ota, described the analysis as a balanced assessment of the reforms.
He said Nigeria must now move beyond stabilising the economy to achieving structural transformation.
According to him, success should be measured through higher productivity, increased purchasing power, job creation, improved human capital and greater social mobility.
Professor Akpan Michael offered a stronger criticism of the impact on households. He said high inflation had reduced real incomes and weakened consumer purchasing power, contributing to rising poverty.
Michael, however, opposed reversing the removal of the fuel subsidy. Instead, he called for higher incomes to restore purchasing power. He suggested that wages should be increased across income groups and urged state governors to use their increased allocations to improve workers’ incomes.
Similarly, Professor Frank Ozoh stressed the importance of balancing government revenue measures with policies that support economic activity.
Using the circulation of blood in the human body as an analogy, Ozoh said the economy requires sufficient money supply and public spending to function effectively.
He argued that subsidy removal and tax increases were not necessarily wrong, but should be accompanied by higher wages, better rewards for producers and targeted investment in infrastructure and social services.
Taken together, the experts believe Tinubu has made major changes to Nigeria’s economic system faster than many previous administrations.
They agree that the first phase of the reforms was largely about removing distortions. The next phase, they said, must focus on increasing production, restoring purchasing power, creating jobs, improving security and ensuring that government revenue translates into better public services.
Ultimately, they said, history will judge the reforms not only by the courage behind the initial decisions, but by whether Nigerians experience better living standards and can afford to benefit from the economic changes.